The global situation is fragile and balanced, and the world economy is unstable and stagflated

In 2021, the world economy is looking for a new way in its stops. In 2022, the superposition of multiple crises and their spread may further have a serious impact on the periphery and semi-periphery of the world system

Wen | Ge Tianren, Zhang Ming, Zheng Liansheng, Yang Xiaochen

In 2021, the world economy is looking for a new way in its stops. In 2022, the superposition of multiple crises and their spread may further have a serious impact on the periphery and semi-periphery of the world system. According to real-time data from Johns Hopkins University, as of 7 a.m. on January 2, 2021, more than 289 million people were infected and more than 5.44 million people died.

In the third year of the global epidemic, the journal Nature published a paper pointing out that cultural values as an important variable have an important and critical impact on human beings to make choices that transcend their own narrow cognitive limitations. There is no doubt that humanity realizes this as the first step toward achieving cognitive transcendence. Hope still lies in human self-transcendence and solidarity and cooperation.

While observing and reflecting on the most profound changes in the global political economy, the importance of ideology and culture is also increasingly apparent. This paper constructs an analytical framework of "thought-politics-economy" and further recognizes that the most fundamental and urgent problem at present is that those still controversial ideological cultures and beliefs are unusually influencing global politics and affecting the global economy. Humanity needs to break through the cognitive fog and unite to deal with the crisis. To this end, this article will summarize the new changes in global ideology and culture, global politics and global economy, analyze their deep-seated reasons and internal logic, look forward to their future trends, and point out important events or key time points that should be paid attention to in 2022.

A Review of Global Politics and Economics in 2021

1. European and American thought and culture: return, reflection and restoration

In 2021, the global ideological and cultural field will continue to show three new changes: the trend of Western social thought will further return to conservatism, the mainstream intellectual circles in Europe and the United States will reflect on capitalism and its social system, and the voices of left-wing progressivism and calls for the construction of new socialism in Britain and the United States will continue to expand.

First, with the recurrence of the epidemic and the strengthening of its control, the right-wing conservative trend displayed by the public in Europe and the United States has spread everywhere with the spread of the epidemic. The remarks, actions and events reflected in European and American social media are full of conservative tendencies, which have further evolved into a social trend of thought through the spread of European and American politicians and right-wing media. It deserves high priority because of its enormous role in driving policy agendas and changes in the political ecology. For example, the US Capitol Hill riots in early 2021, the riots in northern Ireland cities in the United Kingdom, and the demonstrations and even collective actions that have spread from the Netherlands and Belgium to almost all of Europe because of the opposition to "lockdown".

Second, with regard to reflections on capitalism and its social system, a large number of works have been published, including film and television literature. In 2021, the TV series "East Side Nightmare", which reflects the fragmentation of the middle-class suburbs in the United States, was a hit, and Li Cheng, director of the Brookings Institution, pointed out that the impact of the psychological and cultural aspects of American society is more important. The French economist Thomas Piketty publishes a new book, Capital and Ideology, and writes an essay calling for a move towards a new socialism. Subsequently, the famous American scholar David Harvey made a serious criticism of Piketty's new book, which meant that Piketty's new book quickly received attention and response from the British and American left-wing academic circles.

In addition, at the end of 2021, the famous left-wing philosopher Zizek published a new work" "Heavenly Chaos", which means that there has been serious division, confrontation and chaos in the ideological field of Europe and the United States. 2021 is another year in which history will not end. The Pew Research Center report notes that only 17 percent believe that U.S. "democracy" is worth emulating, while 23 percent believe that U.S. "democracy" has never been a good example. American political scientist Fukuyama published an analysis of the social influence of the decline of American power in foreign policy, The Economist and other magazines, which defined american domestic politics as a more urgent and important thing, in this regard, "The Economist" magazine seems to go further, established a column on the analysis of American power and democracy, and its series of annual reports on the decline of world democracy should be more influential, of which the remarkable thing is to classify American democracy as a "defective democracy". In fact, it reveals more about the general anxiety and constructive criticism of the middle and upper classes in Britain and the United States, which obviously does not touch the essence and crux of the problem. Criticism of its essential problems, Mr. Liang Henian, a well-known planning and cultural scholar at Queen's University in Canada, who is familiar with Chinese cultural background, published a new book in traditional Chinese before the end of 2021, "The Future of Western Civilization", to be more in-depth and thorough.

Third, the capitalist system and its liberal democratic ideology, which are deep in Britain and the United States and have not encountered any real major challenges after World War II, are facing unprecedented challenges, not only in social unrest, the rise of right-wing populist thought and intellectual reflection, but also in the growing forces of "progressivism" in Britain and the United States and their continued efforts and voices to correct and repair domestic political problems. Sanders, an independent candidate for the Democratic Party of the United States, called for a political revolution that would change the United States, refused corporate donations, relied on small donations from the public, and attracted a large number of young American students. In addition, Corbyn, the leader of the British Labour Party, publicly expressed his vision of "socialism absolutely works" at the Oxford University Debate Club, and coupled with the unique status and influence of Oxford University, the debate was widely disseminated through new media.

2. The deep adjustment and fragile balance of the global political system

In 2020, there are three very important new changes in global politics that deserve attention, mainly from the foreign policy adjustments of major countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States, the European Union, Russia, Japan and South Korea, and the analysis of the domestic political situation. The global political landscape still maintains a rare balance in fragile economies, although this balance still faces the undercurrents and challenges of socio-political change brought about by global inequality.

First, the United States has adjusted its foreign policy and taken the adjustment of its relations with China as the main axis of its foreign policy. Zhu Feng's team at Nanjing University pointed out that "the relationship between the United States and Europe has been brought closer, and the adjustment of the strategic triangle relationship between China and the United States and Russia and the United States, Europe and Russia will have an impact on the future of the United States and Russia relations." The Biden administration gave up the so-called "brute power" of the Trump administration and adopted the so-called "smart power", but its effect was limited. Zhou Qi, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that while strengthening its established strategy, the United States has adjusted its recent China policy, emphasized the so-called competition strategy, and achieved its strategic goals by co-opting allies to jointly contain China. In 2021, China and the United States carried out the Alaska Talks, tianjin talks, and Zurich talks, which aroused the world's attention. In the three talks, China stood on the standpoint of mankind and its own future development, gave a clear bottom line to Sino-US relations and showed the greatest goodwill. Although the United States continues to hype up the Xinjiang issue and the Taiwan Strait issue, and has carried out so-called "diplomatic boycotts" and convened the so-called "World Democracy Summit" on the Winter Olympics, the effect has not actually been as great as some observers have claimed. As Li Cheng, director of the Brookings Institution, said, "Biden is not diplomatically easing confrontation and conflict, but making enemies on all sides." He did not really use more resources and focus on the country, which can be described as a failure. In particular, relations with China have not only not improved, but have continued to deteriorate. "The misjudgment of China policy caused by the arrogance, prejudice, and short-sightedness of the U.S. foreign policy team is the most important reason for this.

Obviously, although the Washington decision-making team sees the seriousness of the domestic problems in the United States, its estimation of party politics and domestic conditions is not only insufficient, but even lacks strong means, especially the lack of spatial dimension is its biggest underestimation. The indicators of democracy in the United States have continued to decline, among which the indicators of political culture and government functions have shown a significant and sustained decline. The Biden administration's so-called "big infrastructure", although it is known as a large version of the "Roosevelt plan", that is, a package of financial investment plans including social security and health insurance reform, was eventually squeezed by bipartisan politics.

Second, under the new changes in global politics, the EU's emphasis on strategic autonomy but variables still deserves great attention. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel leaves office in 2021, and despite receiving high praise at home, Germany's future foreign policy and its role in the EU are overshadowed. The chairman of the German Social Democratic Party, Schultz, formed the cabinet as the new chancellor, and the green party chairman Belpock was most likely to be foreign minister, who is known for being tough on China. In addition, although French President Macron advocates "Gaulle doctrine", puts forward tough slogans on The defense of European independence, and adheres to independence and self-determination in china policy, Australia's tearing up of the nuclear submarine agreement with France has led to France recalling its ambassador to the United States and Australia. At the same time, the return of right-wing conservative forces in the local elections in France has led to increased uncertainty about France's foreign policy. In 2021, only the UK, while continuing its "global Britain" foreign policy, still "wisely" chooses to strengthen its economic and trade engagement with the Asia-Pacific region, but the UK will still face the challenges of Scottish independence and Northern Ireland centrifugalism. At the beginning of 2019, I wrote that the UK will adopt a strategy of safe westward and economic eastward, which is now being confirmed step by step. In 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered his annual State of the Union address, and the Ukraine issue has once again become a key issue in the relationship between the United States and Russia and Russia and Europe. Although there are signs of relaxation in Russian-US relations, there has been no substantive change. Russia stresses the need to further strengthen economic and trade relations with Asia, especially Sino-Russian relations.

3. Global economic stagnation and global inequality continue to deepen

The biggest variable in the global economy in 2021 is the continued release of large amounts of liquidity by countries. For or against, the Fed's role in the global economy is a big deal. Although the Biden administration has adopted a series of economic stimulus policies, short-term subsidies to low-income groups are conducive to promoting consumption and cannot solve the problem of the excessive gap between the rich and the poor. In response to the pandemic and various economic problems around the world, countries have adopted "painless therapy" to compensate for short-term losses at the expense of long-term benefits. This has not helped the global economy to emerge from secular stagnation, and has even exacerbated economic imbalances in marginal and semi-marginal countries, triggering social and political unrest.

The World Inequality Report 2022, released on 12 December 2022, notes that income disparities between countries are decreasing, but within countries are widening, even though income disparities vary from country to country and often depend on government policy choices. The gap between rich and poor within some countries, including the United States, India, and Russia, will widen significantly in 2021. The average global adult income in 2021 is $23,400 and net worth is $102,600. In the global income distribution, the top 10% earn an average of $122,100 a year, while the bottom 50% earn only $3,920 a year, with the former earning 31 times as much as the latter. Wealth inequality is even more pronounced than income, with the world's richest 10 percent owning 75 percent of the world's wealth, with some 2,750 billionaires owning 3.5 percent of the world's wealth, up from 1 percent in 1995, while the bottom 50 percent of the population accounts for 2 percent of the world's wealth. Clearly, I agree with the report that while inequality is global, differences in income and wealth within countries are not inevitable and are a political choice.

In 2021, large-scale stimulus policies will lead not only to the continuous rise of global commodities, but also to the rapid rise in global housing prices, especially in the United States and Europe. According to the "Global House Price Index" data analysis report released by Knight Frank, a British real estate information company, in the 12 months from the third quarter of 2020 to the third quarter of 2021, the overall house price growth in 56 major countries around the world was 9.6% (based on the actual increase). Large-scale stimulus and rising housing prices, together with otherwise serious economic and social problems, are likely to trigger a new round of economic and social unrest and exacerbate the negative social consequences of housing financialization.

4. The root cause of the deterioration of the global political and economic situation is the serious global leadership deficit

All in all, the return and reflection of the global ideological and cultural field has promoted the internal adjustment and external turn of global politics, which not only did not bring the global economy out of the pattern of long-term stagnation, but also triggered a new round of global inflation, although the short-term stimulus plan has eased the lives of ordinary people in developed countries, but the situation of global inequality has not only not improved but has deepened and spread, housing prices continue to rise, triggering the global political and economic pattern to continue to evolve into a negative situation. This is mainly due to two main reasons:

First, the global leadership deficit is severe. 2020 is a crisis when mankind is facing a very serious global epidemic, vaccine nationalism hinders the formation of effective global governance, and mankind needs to unite to overcome the difficulties. In the face of the crisis, global leadership urgently needs to be reshaped, and the reflection in the field of global ideology and culture has not yet been extended to the level of global governance.

Second, as the world's largest developed economy and the most politically influential country, the United States should have been responsible for the current world leadership deficit, but the US decision-making level still holds a narrow and outdated "Cold War" mentality, and applies the 19th century international strategic thinking of the beggar-thy-neighbor in the 21st century of global digitalization, resulting in the risk of disintegration of the globalization process, and the inter-state alliance and reorganization it promotes not only abandons the great global ideal established by President Roosevelt of the United States after the war, but also leads the world to the brink of danger.

The United States hastily withdrew its troops in the 20-year war in Afghanistan and turned to a selective contraction strategy in the face of domestic and foreign contradictions, but such a vacuum of international power is completely irresponsible for the world and the future of human civilization. This short-sighted contraction strategy, which lacks overall consideration, is not only difficult to implement, but also difficult to work, and will eventually lead to a serious deficit in global leadership, fundamentally endangering the long-term interests of the United States itself. The strategic misjudgment of China's development that is rooted in it is entirely caused by the arrogance and prejudice of the global elite leadership of the United States, not by the national interests of the United States. They are the initiators of the fluctuations in Sino-US relations and the so-called "Second Cold War," and they do not know the difference between them and the great ideals and broad minds of their ancestors in establishing a post-war international order.

A disturbing example is that Neil Ferguson, a media historian who still observes current issues in U.S.-China relations with a Cold War mentality, is active in various "global think tanks" and media forums, and he has been widely interviewed, arguing that the so-called "second Cold War" was provoked by China on its own initiative, and the number of books published in the past few years is staggering, while his books are mostly patchwork and contradictory. Eloquence is a common trait of this faction, and fear of chaos is their tool for gaining eyeballs and profits, while the consequences are borne by the people of China and the United States and the world.

The authors are both researchers at the Center for Global Economics and International Finance, Institute of International Finance, University of Science and Technology of China; Editor: Wang Yanchun