A few days ago, Tesla announced the delivery results for Q4 2021 and the whole year of 2021, far exceeding the expectations of analysts.
Although the threshold of 1 million has not been reached, a new giant has risen. This is a data that is enough to make the traditional camp frightened, in a way that traditional car companies can't understand, which is the most terrifying place for Tesla.
Let's analyze how "top" this data is.
First of all, this is the sales volume obtained in the case of a large shortage of chips. If according to some industry insiders, traditional brands have a natural advantage over Tesla in the supply chain, then the nearly one million production and sales of the latter are punching the face, which also shows that Tesla's supply chain construction is more advanced.
In fact, in the environment of chip shortage car companies choosing to reduce production, Tesla can still maintain growth based on its flexible response strategy. This is nothing more than Tesla from FSD3.0 onwards, in the development of its own chip and close cooperation with Samsung to put into production, and the same self-developed 12-core Soc, from Samsung's Autin plant in Texas. And it will respond to the shortage by switching to more accessible chips, rewriting programs to match chips, and so on. Traditional car companies rely more on hardware, and it is difficult to achieve this conversion compared to Tesla's software-driven model.
Secondly, repeated price cuts have made Tesla at this stage appear cheap in the eyes of consumers, but in fact, Tesla's cheapest car, that is, the standard Model 3 that has not been priced before, has a unit price of more than 230,000, exceeding the "sinking" BBA, such as Audi A3, BMW 1 Series, Mercedes-Benz A-Class and other models.
And the key is that from Tesla's 2021 financial report, it can still maintain a gross profit margin of up to 30% of the whole vehicle, of which the gross profit margin of the vehicle reaches 27%, which makes most traditional car companies unattainable. Previously, Toyota, which had the best gross profit margin control among traditional car companies, had a gross profit margin of 18.6% in the four quarters.
Of course, due to differences in business models, there are some differences in the caliber of gross profit calculations between Tesla and traditional car companies. For example, the traditional car company Toyota sells to dealers through wholesale, tesla has opened up a direct sales model, so the Top line is higher than Toyota, and direct sales will also have additional rent and sales staff fees, which do not have to be taken into account. However, in the long run, Tesla's manufacturing efficiency will continue to increase, and its gross profit will continue to increase.
It sells a lot and is lucrative. From the release of the model 3, less than four years, Tesla achieved annual sales of nearly one million. And if you calculate the monthly sales of 50,000 vehicles in the Shanghai factory, at least more than 60% of Tesla's global production and sales come from China.
This is an invisible pressure for local traditional car companies. Because Tesla teaches all local brands to be human in China, a country of infrastructure madness. In more than 2 years to create an annual output of 600,000 pure electric car factories, no brand in China can do it, even if it is a joint venture, not to mention Tesla has sold out all, or even in short supply.
Tesla, which has tasted the sweetness, is still actively promoting the expansion plan of the Shanghai Gigafactory, and is publicizing the EIA of the second phase of the Shanghai Gigafactory's production line optimization project, which will invest 1.2 billion yuan and is expected to be completed in April 2022.
According to the joke jokes of netizens, it is thought that the introduction of a catfish, the result is a great white shark.
After the sales volume rises, especially after reaching the million threshold, it will also feed back other aspects of Tesla.
For example, scale can further reduce the cost of production and manufacturing, and the pricing space of products is more relaxed.
Another example is the million-year sales, which means that Tesla's position as the first person to assist driving is unshakable. Of course, this is not to refer to how avant-garde Tesla's pure visual algorithms are. Instead, millions of cars are used to recycle data every year, which has exceeded the sum of all competitors, and data is the lifeblood of the commercialization of autonomous driving.
It's just that the long-term rotten Tesla's China region, coupled with some regulatory restrictions, the full version of the FSD can not enter China, Tesla China's auxiliary driving, has lagged behind Tesla in the United States for more than two years, users also have to be too expensive for software service packages, greatly reducing the willingness to buy. This also leaves a gap for domestic new power brands to catch up, and there is enough time to close the distance with Tesla's important technology nodes.
But what if Tesla suddenly opened up and began to pay attention to the "smart experience" in China, including keeping up with the self-driving version in the United States, and the localization of the smart cockpit? Those domestic players who flaunt the new forces of science and technology pioneers are afraid that they will usher in another dimensionality reduction blow.
What is even more frightening is that Tesla is often negatively entangled, and there are still many hardware quality problems to be solved, but in the face of the absolute volume and the reputation of most car owners, the negative volume is like a grasshopper shaking the tree, and Tesla's sales have never braked... If you change to another new energy company, you will have been dried up long ago.
On the last day of last year, the State Administration for Market Regulation announced that Tesla Motors (Beijing) recalled 19,700 imported Model S and 35,800 imported Model 3; Tesla (Shanghai) recalled 144,200 Model 3. The day before December 30, U.S. road safety regulators said Tesla was recalling more than 475,000 Model 3 and Model Ss due to issues that could increase safety risks from rearview cameras and front hoods.
Thinking about it, consumers' "tolerance" to Tesla is so high, I am afraid that it can only be explained by the advantages of "factual standard setters".
Tesla single-handedly defined the intelligence, long endurance, and high performance that an advanced pure electric car should have, which are the guiding strategic advantages of the industry, and have established a huge exclusive privilege and label for it. In other words, consumers and industry players tend to be more demanding on catch-ups and more inclusive of "fact-setters."
Tesla has contributed unique products to the world, without Tesla, all other brands would not know that pure electric cars can be designed in this way, and other brands do not know that car manufacturing can optimize the manufacturing process in this way, and even explode production capacity. Tesla has profoundly changed the automotive industry.
And the master is the teacher, the domestic new energy vehicle companies and traditional car companies, really have to sink down to analyze their own shortcomings, more reference, absorb the strengths and advantages of others.
The new year has just begun, in my opinion, this is still expected to be the year of Tesla's outbreak, Texas and Berlin gigafactories have been put into operation, production capacity will be greatly improved, and annual production of more than one million should be an easy thing.
The production capacity released by the Shanghai Super Factory will also be preferentially supplied to Chinese consumers, coupled with the gradual increase in the penetration rate of the new energy market, it is conceivable that Tesla's domestic sales in 2022 are likely to grow further according to the current trend.
Today, when we evaluate Tesla's potential, it is much like Apple's valuation and growth curve back then. And that's just the beginning.
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