"Hundred machines scramble" to fold, or to meet the outbreak of the first year

From 2022 onwards, the folding mobile phone field has officially ushered in a new competitive pattern - the era of "hundred machines competing".

On January 10, Honor released the first folding screen mobile phone Magic V priced at 9999 yuan. So far in the circle of folding machines, South Korea's Samsung is no longer a monopoly, domestic brands Huawei, Millet, OPPO, Glory have entered the game, vivo is also expected to join this year, and apple, which has always been cautious, has also begun to hold its breath and is testing a number of prototype folding machines... In this context, folding screen mobile phones are expected to usher in the first year of market outbreak this year.

Why is it a folding screen

"Folding screen" has always been a "hot word" that has attracted much attention in the field of mobile phones in the past two years. So, what is the background behind it?

"At present, the entire smart terminal and smart phone industry does not have a particularly new technology and a new way of presentation, so the folding screen has become the direction and focus of the entire industry." Zhang Yi, CEO and chief analyst of Ai Media Consulting, told the reporter of China Electronics News.

In 2010, smartphones began to replace traditional feature phones, and it took a decade to complete this mission. Data show that as of December 2020, China's smartphone penetration rate has reached 96%. In recent years, as the smartphone market has entered the stock era from the incremental era, its overall shipments have begun to show weakness, and new technologies and new forms have naturally become the source of power to promote the continued development of the smart phone market.

"Folding screen mobile phones can stimulate consumers' demand for replacement from the perspective of demand, enhance the accumulation of manufacturers' research and development strength from the perspective of technology research and development, and enhance the brand image from the perspective of the market." Wang Xi, research manager of IDC China, pointed out in an interview with the "China Electronic News" reporter that the evolution of the full screen form of smart phones has basically ended, the appearance of mobile phones is solidified, and the folding screen has enough recognition, and some use scenarios can indeed bring better experience.

In fact, the application field of folding screen is not only limited to the field of smart phones, but also has products in the promotion and layout of notebook computers.

"In the field of smart phones, folding is the hottest direction in the market recently, and in the medium and long term, it is an inevitable trend." Chen Jun, deputy general manager and chief analyst of Qunzhi Consulting, told reporters, "Not only folding, but also the different forms of intelligent terminals, including folding (including double folding, three folds, etc.), curling, pulling up, etc., will become the inevitable direction of future OLED technology." ”

It can be seen that the folding screen belt is not only hot in the mobile phone market, but also promotes the development of related upstream industries. On the previously released Huawei P50 Pocket, the 6.9-inch AMOLED inner screen was supplied by Visionox; and the just released Honor Magic V, whose 7.9-inch flexible AMOLED display inner and outer screens were supplied exclusively by BOE, and also used the first 28nm driver chip in China.

Next, with the popularity of the folding screen, AMOLED's flexible display performance advantages are highlighted, and the market share of AMOLED models will continue to rise, on the one hand, it will promote the progress and development of domestic flexible panel technology, on the other hand, it will also provide a favorable market environment for AMOLED driver chips, effectively driving the improvement of its market share. Qunzhi Consulting predicts that in 2022, the proportion of domestic flexible OLED mobile phone screen shipments in the global market will increase from 27%-28% in 2021 to 37%-38%. CINNOResearch expects that the market size of AMOLED driver chips in China's market will grow from 900 million US dollars in 2021 to 3.3 billion US dollars in 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 38%.

The folding screen track is accelerating

The "folding screen era" began in the second half of 2018, when major mobile phone manufacturers began to lay out one after another, and folding screen mobile phones began to enter the market introduction period.

In October 2018, Royole Technology, a domestic flexible display and sensor developer, launched the world's first consumer-grade foldable flexible screen mobile phone FlexPai. In 2019, major mobile phone manufacturers continue to exert their strength. Among them, Samsung released the first folding screen mobile phone "Galaxy Fold", and Huawei launched the folding phone Mate X.

However, due to the high cost constraints, the price of the above three folding mobile phones is set at between 12,000 yuan and 17,000 yuan, and the high price makes many consumers prohibitive. In addition, due to the impact of production capacity and yield, the folding machine has not been able to achieve mass production. Relevant statistics show that in 2019, the global folding screen mobile phone shipments were less than 1 million units, while the global smartphone shipments in the same period were 1.371 billion units. Even after two years of development, the situation does not seem to have changed much. According to IDC research, the global folding screen market capacity is expected to be 7 to 8 million units in 2021, of which the domestic market capacity is expected to exceed 1 million units. But relative to the overall market, this is still a very small order of magnitude. At present, the global market, whether it is the upstream panel, or the product, is mainly promoted by a few giants such as Samsung.

Obviously, if you look at the shipments, folding screen mobile phones have not yet become an emerging increment of smart phones. But if you look at it from another perspective, if the folding screen track really belongs to the next outlet in the field of mobile phones, then the treasures contained in this blue ocean will be extremely tempting. In fact, all mainstream mobile phone manufacturers have taken this into account, so they have not stopped the pace of layout in the field of folding screen mobile phones.

Since the second half of 2021, folding screen mobile phones have begun to enter a new competitive track, veteran players such as Samsung and Huawei have continued to exert their strength, emerging players such as OPPO and Glory have entered the game strongly, and a number of new products have also mushroomed. First, Samsung once again exerted its strength and released the third generation of folding screen mobile phones Galaxy Z Fold3 and Galaxy Z Flip3; then OPPO released its first folding screen mobile phone OPPO Find N for four years, with a starting price of 7699 yuan to make the folding screen achieve a leap from early adopter to common use; then Huawei launched the first vertical folding screen mobile phone P50 Pocket at the end of 2021.

Entering 2022, Honor released the first folding screen mobile phone Magic V at the beginning of the year, starting at 9999 yuan. Next, vivo, OnePlus's first folding screen and Xiaomi's second-generation folding screen flagship will also be expected to debut in 2022.

Under this momentum, there are views from the outside world that 2022 may become the commercial outbreak year of folding screen mobile phones.

So, will the mobile phone field really usher in the era of exclusive "folding screen" popularization like the smart phone replaced the traditional functional machine? The answer may not be so simple.

Challenges remain on the eve of the market outbreak

It is not difficult to find that in the lively folding screen mobile phone track, only one of the most familiar faces is missing - Apple.

In fact, Apple has always been interested in this long-term folding screen competition game, as early as 2013 has been laid out on the relevant patents, but Apple, which has always been known for its "rigor", needs to ensure that its folding screen mobile phone is perfect enough when it is listed. However, recently, sources revealed that Apple is developing and testing a number of foldable screen prototype products. Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingxi has said that Apple needs to solve "key technology and mass production problems" to launch the foldable iPhone by 2023.

In fact, the problems faced and concerned by Apple are also common problems in the entire industry. In the process of interviewing a number of industry insiders, the reporter found that price and technical maturity are the two main factors affecting the rapid popularization of folding screen mobile phones. Only when these two major problems are solved in advance can the market achieve a real outbreak.

"At present, in the field of folding screens, its technological maturity is still facing certain challenges. In general, compared with the traditional intelligent terminal, there is still a certain gap in the quality, durability and technical stability of folding screen products, which also makes its price very expensive, which in turn leads to the use of folding screen mobile phones mainly high-end people or gifts. Zhang Yi told the "China Electronics News" reporter.

Wang Xi analyzed from the two perspectives of hardware stability and differentiated software experience: the perspective of hardware, regardless of hinge, display panel, ultra-thin glass and other materials, processes are now continuously improving and optimizing the industry; the software perspective, need to make full use of and reflect the advantages of the folding screen, such as horizontal folding after the expansion, the information reading experience of the large screen should not be simply stretched and enlarged, which tests the ecological cooperation between mobile phone manufacturers and the content side, and the ability to adapt to software.

In addition, price is also an important pole. In Zhang Yi's view, price is an important factor hindering the development of the entire industry, and suppressing the price is also an inevitable trend.

In fact, the current price of folding screen mobile phones is indeed continuing to decline. Whether it is oppo Find N starting from 7699 yuan, Huawei P50 Pocket starting from 8988 yuan, or the newly released Honor Magic V from 9999 yuan, the starting price has dropped below the 10,000 yuan mark. It is worth noting that among the three brands, OPPO with the slogan of "from early adopter to common use" is relatively the lowest, and on January 10, OPPO released the information of "folding screen flagship reservation volume exceeded one million" in the official Weibo. It can be seen that the importance of price is self-evident.

"When the folding screen can be near the price segment of a traditional flagship, and in terms of performance, image, endurance and other functions, compared with the traditional flagship at the same price point, it will not be too much discount, it will certainly stimulate some consumers to turn to folding screen products." Wang Xi told reporters.

Counterpoint data shows that from 2020 to 2022, the global folding screen mobile phone shipments are 2.8 million, 5.6 million and 17.2 million, respectively, and it is expected that the shipment of folding screen mobile phones in 2025 is expected to exceed 56 million units, and the average annual compound growth rate between 2020 and 2025 will reach 82.06%. Next, with the advent of a variety of folding screen products, the price continues to decline, and the technology gradually matures, which will promote the continuous expansion of market capacity, and 2022 will be expected to become the first year of the outbreak of folding screen mobile phones.