The United States and Russia recently held the first round of high-level diplomatic dialogue in Geneva, but as expected, the two sides have not made any substantive progress. Although both the United States and Russia claimed that the dialogue had a "positive attitude," it was not in essence possible to narrow the serious differences between the two. Moreover, russia has just made little progress in the dialogue with the OSCE.
The Washington Post website reported that the United States and NATO are turning Ukraine into a giant porcupine, making it impossible for the Russian military to attack. As a strategy to contain the Russian army, the U.S. military has in recent weeks in Europe B-52 bombers and RC-135 long-range reconnaissance aircraft, covering the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine and parts of Russian territory.
Multiple rounds of dialogue between Russia and the West have failed to reach any consensus, implying that tensions in Europe will continue. This is an extremely dangerous thing for Ukraine. Even much of the speculation about the Russo-Ukrainian war has been overwhelming. According to the "Reference News", in recent weeks, the West has speculated that if Russia "invades" Ukraine, it is very likely to trigger a war using US-made weapons to fight guerrilla warfare, leaving Putin in an Afghan-style war quagmire.
However, for the Speculation of the West, the website of the "Russia Today" TELEVISION station recently published a rebuttal saying that in fact, even if such an apocalyptic event occurs, the so-called "anti-Russian guerrilla war" will never happen. Many Westerners certainly want Ukraine to become Russia's "Afghan quagmire," but this is just their naïve wishful thinking.
It is no wonder that the Russian media look down on the Ukrainian resistance so much, after all, unlike the Afghan Taliban and the Yemeni Houthi armed forces, Ukrainians already belong to the group of the postmodern world, and do not have the toughness and resilience of the Taliban or Houthis. Although previous polls showed that 24 percent of young Ukrainian respondents claimed to "take up arms to resist a Russian invasion," how many of them would keep their promises if war did break out?
If ukrainians had that much fighting spirit, Crimea might not have been annexed by Russia. In fact, from the War in donbass in eastern Ukraine, we can see the low morale and fragile combat effectiveness of the Ukrainians. Otherwise, the Kiev authorities would not have been unable to resolve the Donbass civil war by now. The conflict in the Russian-Ukrainian Kerch Strait in 2019 once again proved the fact that the Ukrainian army was vulnerable.
The West's fiction that Ukraine will become Russia's "Afghanistan or Chechnya" is in fact deliberately encouraging the Kiev authorities to launch even crazier provocations against Russia, making it clear that it is pushing Ukraine to the end of the road. The fact that, as russia today website puts it, some people sit in comfortable offices in Washington or London, fantasizing that Ukrainians will "resist to the end" with Russia, is simply not a reality.
Admittedly, the West's hype of Russia's "invasion" of Ukraine did not mobilize Ukrainian society. It is not that Ukrainians are not afraid of war, but that they have long been insensitive to the situation. The reason is simple: as the pandemic continues to strike and the economy continues to languish, many Ukrainians have long since worn out and their illusions about political leaders have long since been shattered. In this environment, who has the leisure and passion to help the Kiev authorities "resist Russia".
Of course, whether the West portrays Ukraine as Russia's "Afghan quagmire" or the Russian media treats Ukrainians as a bunch of vulnerable waste, they are actually fighting psychological warfare and trying to overwhelm each other in momentum. In the current situation where neither the United States nor Russia is willing to have a conflict, the scenes of the Russian-Ukrainian war speculated by the Western and Russian media will never happen in the real world.
Although the US military has repeatedly hinted that once the War between Russia and Ukraine begins, the combination of US reconnaissance aircraft and bombers can strike important targets in the depth of the Russian army, including communication centers, command centers, missile bases and logistics bases. Weaken the Russian army's ability to continue to fight and attack, and improve the defensive capabilities of the Ukrainian army. But many military analysts believe that the United States may not directly engage the Russian military on a large scale, which can easily lead to nuclear war.
Even so, if the tense confrontation around Ukraine continues, the impact on other countries may not be large, but for Ukraine's economy and people's livelihood, the impact is absolutely fatal. After all, as the eye of the storm in European tensions, who would dare to rush to invest, or travel and do business in the country?
Therefore, if Ukraine wants to change the current dilemma, it can only separate itself from the vortex of great power confrontation, otherwise, the continuous turmoil will make it impossible for Ukraine to take off the hat of "the poorest country in Europe". But the question is, do the Kiev authorities have the strength and courage?