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At the end of World War II, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill led a battle plan against the Soviet Union, code-named Operation Incredible.
Former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill
In 1945, in the final months of the end of World War II, it was only a matter of time before Nazi Germany was wiped out in the face of a two-line attack between the Allies and the Red Army. Although Britain, the United States, and the Soviet Union were all part of the Allied camp at this time, due to ideological differences and the division of interests after the war, all sides knew that it was not only the defeat of Germany that was about to be ushered in, but also the confrontation and even conflict between the Allies and the Soviet Union.
American and Soviet soldiers met the division on the Elbe
The "Alliance" of Yin and Yang
On September 1, 1939, Germany attacked Poland, kicking off World War II. In fact, germany's military success at the beginning of World War II had a lot to do with the appeasement policy of Britain and France.
After the merger of Germany and Austria in 1938, the Soviet Union realized Hitler's ambitions and proposed a meeting of Britain, France, the United States and the Soviet Union to discuss measures to contain Germany. Chamberlain, then British Prime Minister, rejected the offer out of political prejudice against the Red Soviet Union. Later, the inaction of Britain and France allowed Germany to annex Czechoslovakia step by step. In the Soviet Union's view, this was the Intention of the West to lead the war to the Soviet Union itself, so the Soviet Union turned around and improved relations with Germany and made two-handed preparations.
From April to August 1939, the Anglo-Soviet Union held a series of talks to prevent Germany from invading Poland, but the differences between the two sides kept the Anglo-Soviet alliance never reached. On August 23, 1939, just a week before Germany attacked Poland, the Soviet Union abruptly signed the Soviet-German Non-Aggression Pact with Germany and subsequently divided Poland with Germany. On 3 September, Britain joined the french-Polish military alliance, the first three allied members. In this way, at the beginning of World War II, Britain and the Soviet Union were even in a hostile camp.
It was not until 1941, when Germany launched Operation Barbarossa to attack the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union suddenly became the "enemy of the enemy", which made Britain and the Soviet Union stand on the same front.
Soviet-German signing of the Soviet-German Non-Aggression Pact
Again, the opposite
Good times are always short-lived, and over the course of a few years, the experience of war has made the Red Army more and more powerful like a snowball. In the course of the counteroffensive, it occupied the countries of eastern, eastern and central Germany and made them satellite states of the Soviet Union. Such a potentially formidable opponent was intolerable to anti-communist fighter Churchill, and as early as April 1945, Churchill ordered the British Joint Chiefs of Staff to develop a post-war military plan against the Soviet Union.
In May, the plan was made. The original plan was extremely incredible and optimistic, with the intention of "imposing the will of Britain and the United States on Russia (the Soviet Union)", and it was planned to use the surrendering forces of Britain, the United States, Poland and even Germany to launch a surprise attack on the Soviet Union and achieve a quick victory.
Offensive plans
The date of operation is set before July, when U.S. troops will withdraw from Europe. It was expected that the Allies would launch a surprise attack on the Red Army front from Szczecin in the north and Graz in the south with 47 divisions and about 1 million troops.
The Anglo-American allies aimed at the junction of the Soviet Central Front, specifically on the northern side of the Tswickau, Chemlitz, Dresden and Görlitz lines, where the Soviet configuration was weakest. The Allies intended to cut off the entire front line of the Red Army and make it impossible to take care of it. Subsequently, for the Soviet army, which was divided between north and south, the Allies divided into north and south lines and continued to carry out attacks. The north road first developed towardSzczecin, where it was expected to inflict heavy damage on the main Soviet army on the north road, and then from there, attack Piva and Bydgoszcz, and eliminate the Soviet forces in northeastern Germany and northwestern Poland; the southern road attacked Leipzig, Cottbus, and Poznan along the way, and finally advanced to Brislaw (i.e., Wroclaw), eliminating Soviet forces in southeastern Germany, the Czech Republic, and southwestern Poland. Eventually, the north-south cluster advanced to the Danzig-Brislau line, occupying half of Poland's territory west of the Curzon Line. The plan calls for this strategic goal to be achieved by winter.
Of course, the Allies also had to face the armies of Soviet satellites and allies (such as Romania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, etc.). However, in the plan, the British army believed that most of these troops were ineffective and did not pose a threat to the British and American forces, so the plans were only focused on dealing with the Soviet army.
In May 1945, the Allied Soviet forces were deployed
Military strength assessment
Allied ground forces, including Britain and Canada, the United States, and Poland, had about 103 divisions, of which they had to deploy troops to defend the line of communication between the Baltic And Adriatic Sea and control the occupied territories. In the end, 47 divisions could be drawn, including 14 panzer divisions. According to the analysis of British staff officers, the Soviet army can convert more than 200 troops into Allied divisions at that time. The Soviets had a numerical superiority of about 2:1-3:1.
On the naval side, the plan saw the Allies as having absolute superiority, could easily control the Baltic Sea, and provide fire support to ground forces while leveling the Soviet Red Navy cruising in the Baltic Sea.
In terms of air power, at that time, the British and American side could draw about 6048 fighters and 2750 strategic bombers in Europe, a total of 8798; while the total number of Soviet aircraft was about 12000, of which more than 900 were strategic bombers. Britain and the United States had only advantages in strategic bombers, but the Allies predicted that the Soviet Air Force would play little role. Because half of the Soviet Union's aviation fuel and a large part of the aircraft manufacturing materials (such as rubber and aluminum) were derived from the West, and the Soviet radar system was relatively backward. After the start of the war, the Allied air forces could attack the Soviets from Denmark, northern Germany, the British mainland, and aircraft carriers.
The Soviet Tu-4 strategic bomber was the most advanced at the time
Not optimistic, the plan was rejected
The British plan was based on many ideals, and the fault tolerance rate was extremely low: it required that the Allies must act extremely quickly, and that there should be no flaws in the entire combat operation, and no one force should be slow or disjointed. And even if the expected strategic purpose is successfully achieved, the Soviet army in Central and Eastern Europe is eliminated, and the Poland is invaded, it will not be able to bring the Soviet Union, a giant, to the knees and surrender, and the armed conflict is likely to turn into an all-out war, or even a third world war. In order to make the Soviet Union obey, Britain and the United States had to directly attack the Soviet Union itself, and it was inevitable that they would fall into the quagmire of war again and repeat the mistakes of Germany.
At this time in the Pacific Theater, Japanese fascism had not yet been completely eliminated, and actions against the Soviet Union would contain the strength of the United States in the war against Japan. So this Allied "thickest thigh" clearly rejected Churchie's plan of attack. On June 9, 1945, U.S. Army Chief of Staff George Marshall signed an evaluation of the program, concluding: "We are not capable of winning a quick but limited victory, and we will face many difficulties and commit to a protracted war." ”
In addition, the plan took into account that a military strike against the Soviet Union would in fact break the anti-fascist alliance and the international situation would be completely disrupted. In the case that Japan still exists, once Britain really wants to go to war with the Soviet Union, in the absence of a formal declaration of war with Japan, it may cause the Soviet Union to try to ally with Japan, acquiesce to Japan's aggression against China and secretly support Japan's military operations in other Commonwealth countries in order to contain British and American military forces.
From offense to defense: the development of defensive plans
After the plan of attack was rejected, on June 10, 1945, Churchill instructed the Joint Chiefs of Staff: "The Russians are likely to take the opportunity to advance into the North Sea and the Atlantic ... In addition we need a detailed plan for the defense of the (British) island. That is, to develop a set of operational plans for how Britain would respond to the Soviet invasion of Western Europe after the withdrawal of American troops from Europe. This set of plans inherits the previous code name: Operation Incredible.
The defensive plan was completed on June 11, 1945. In the simulations, it was very likely that the Red Army would launch an all-out offensive from Germany to Denmark, the Low Countries, and France, as in the case of Nazi Germany's offensive against Western Europe in 1940. Because the gap between the two sides was too large, the plan negated Churchill's desire to build a bridgehead on the European continent, so the focus of the battle plan shifted to how to defend the British island.
The defense of the British mainland would require the British navy and air force to resist the Soviet air and sea attack. Because of the limited strength of the Soviet Red Navy, it was unlikely that the Soviet Union would launch a landing operation against the British mainland. However, britain is likely to be hit by soviet rockets fired from the European continent, and this will cause serious damage to britain. Britain had a certain advantage in strategic air force, so strategic air strikes would be the best option britain could use to counter the Soviet offensive.
Other related issues, such as the direction of the situation and when the British army will return to the continent, are not mentioned in detail in the plan.
Reaction from the Soviet side
In June 1945, while the British staff was working intensively on planning, a sudden and big move occurred on the Part of the Soviets: Marshal Zhukov of the Soviet Union reorganized the front-line groups and reinforced the fortifications. Later, the British speculated that the Soviet side reacted this way because the KGB's team of agents lurking in Britain, the Cambridge Five, intercepted the information and transmitted it back to Moscow.
KGB Legendary Spy Group "Cambridge Five"
Then, in July 1945, Churchill lost to Attlee of the Labour Party in the general election, losing his position as prime minister, and the war plan against the Soviet Union was shelved. However, with the tension between the post-war Western and Eastern European socialist camps, the Western countries resumed close discussions about the war between East and West Europe, with Britain reacting particularly aggressively.
In the years that followed, NATO developed a large number of operational plans on how to defend against the Soviet Union. The two sets of operational plans ordered by Churchill have also regained the attention of some NATO high-level leaders and have become NATO's contingency plan for the Warsaw Pact operation. Both plans were highly classified and were not made public until 1998.
(This article only represents the views of the author and does not represent the position of this number)