To what extent has the market been gamed? Fund managers bet ahead on "certainty" and "advanced layout" more and more volumes

Financial Associated Press (Beijing, reporter Chen Junling) news, if you see that the fundamentals of a certain industry began to "go well" and reflected in the latest financial data, the stock price began to turn downward, you do not have to be surprised, because which may be the "advanced layout" of the funds in the profit escape.

"To what extent has the market been gamed? A lot of big funds are more and more forward layout, to prevent being smashed by others on the hill. Yesterday, a paragraph about the "advanced layout" of the investment circle was widely circulated.

For example, pork prices have fallen all the way, and pork stocks have risen several waves. Also, the price of many products has been rising, but stocks have been hammered all the way, such as lithium, rare earths, etc., because they expect prices to fall sooner or later, whether it is a year later, or two years later.

A hunt for "certainty"

In a roadshow for investors, a post-85s fund manager paced back and forth in the room while recommending the industries and sectors he was optimistic about. In the face of the well-prepared PPT, he can only let his thoughts scatter when he leaves the fixed lecture seat.

Compared with the 10-billion-level star fund manager, this personable mesozoic fund manager, despite the limited scale of management, never shy away from optimism about certain industries and tracks in the roadshow, nor will he ever express any ambiguous views.

"We not only understand baijiu and dragon head white horse, but a lot of our energy, resources and direction are put on the capture of dark horses and new tracks, and we all focus on not lying down to win, but on the way we look forward and run forward, which is our biggest difference." He said.

In his view, 2022 will be a reversal year for the consumer sector, which is expected to usher in a relatively considerable market, and the small and medium-sized market value is expected to perform better. Among them, the biggest offensive direction may come from the second- and third-tier small and medium-sized market capitalization companies in the compulsory consumption.

In a word, he wants to give investors a sharper offensive investment tool when consumption goes up. Which stocks are the most worth looking forward to? He turned the PPT to the next page, and the more than a dozen listed companies listed in this chart have fallen significantly in 2021, so the upside is also large.

Subsequently, during the interaction session with investors, an investor asked the fund manager for his views on a stock with a "pork concept". Although he is not in a position to say too much about individual stocks, he is quite optimistic about the pork track where he is located.

"In the past year, the hog index has fallen from 29,000 points to 13,000 points, a decline of more than 60%, and now is the darkest moment for pork stocks, and next year it is almost certain that pork stocks will usher in a double positive of performance and valuation!" He gave an example.

In the view of the post-85 fund manager, most of the valuation of the target has returned to a good valuation level, so it is possible to start the layout in advance. Among them, the mandatory consumption is not affected by the macro-economy, is a long-term stable direction, and on the basis of price increases, it is expected that there will be a comprehensive performance outbreak in 2022.

"Probabilistic thinking" is a key word that sets him apart from other fund managers. In his view, deterministic thinking represents a very in-depth study of individual stocks, and after the study is completed, it is bought in a heavy position, held for a long time, and basically there is no change of hands.

"Advanced Layout" is getting more and more volume

From the "Mao Index" to the "Ning Era", in the face of the continuous adjustment of the market at the beginning of 2022, the logic of fund managers has also begun to "change", no longer obsessed with the current "track" of the day, and began to look for the "certainty" that is vaguely visible in the future.

Although this "certainty" has not yet been verified by financial data, and even the fundamentals have not been significantly improved, only a valid information that can be "determined" is that its price is much lower than the previous high, and the "upward space" is theoretically greater than the "downward space".

Unconsciously, it has been a few weeks since the roadshow of the above-mentioned post-85 fund managers. Some of the pork stocks mentioned during his roadshow have rebounded by nearly 40% from the lowest, but the price of live pigs related to them has still not been able to get out of the "bottom area".

Since the beginning of this week, under the market that is still sluggish, pork stocks have unexpectedly risen sharply, and even several stocks have sealed the limit. Taking Tang Renshen as an example, in the data of the previous day's rising and stopping Dragon and Tiger list, there were three institutions and one Shenzhen Stock Connect in the buying seat, and there was only one "institutional-only" seat in the selling seat.

The fundamentals have not changed in any way, the spot price is sluggish, but the stock price is very hot, rising several waves from the bottom. Similar cases include house price and real estate stocks, as well as film box office and film stocks, in addition to pork and pork stocks.

Taking the real estate leader Poly Development as an example, affected by the easing of real estate policy expectations, the stock has risen several times since the beginning of August last year to the lowest point of 9.03 yuan, and on January 11, the stock rose to 17.08 yuan in the intraday, just one step away from doubling. Similarly, the leading film stock Light Media also rebounded about 40% from the bottom.

In the past few months, the real estate industry has been in a state of flux, and the real estate relaxation rumors have failed again and again, and the sales data has fallen into a "freezing point", and there is no sign of recovery, but the stock price of the leader can no longer see the lowest point of the darkest hour.

"As long as the price is expected to rise, whether it is half a year later, or a year later, there will be funds to ambush in advance and speculate." Some people concluded that as long as they see some vague "certainty", it will trigger the institution's advanced ambush, after all, "the first hand is strong, and the next hand suffers!" ”。

Similarly, the price of many products has been rising, but stocks have been hammered all the way, such as lithium, rare earths, etc., because they expect prices to fall sooner or later, whether it is a year later, or two years later. Perhaps this also explains that everyone is optimistic about the new energy track, but the stock price has recently fallen endlessly.

So some people began to reflect - "When a market ignores the status quo of the industry and is desperately laying out the game forward, even more than a year in advance, it is difficult to say that this market is in a normal state." Unhealthy market, go far? ”