The three major dilemmas of the failure of the transformation of the late Qing Dynasty
Text: Lei Yi
We know that the so-called late Qing Dynasty was the beginning of China's modern history, starting with the "Opium War", and the reason why we take 1840 as the beginning of China's modern history is because from it Chinese society faced a social transformation, which inevitably required institutional change.
During social transformation, when the regime in charge of society does not actively carry out institutional changes, various social changes are triggered.
Today we take China's modern history as an example to see how the following three major dilemmas led to the downfall of the Qing Dynasty step by step.
▌ Decadent traditional concept:
Traditional "tianxia view" VS modern national view
The system can be divided into many levels, but as a society, the most important thing is two aspects: one is the economic system, the other is the political system, these two systems are relatively stable, perfect and flexible, open, dynamic, can be adjusted and debugged with the changes in society, this society is stable, the regime will be stable.
There are two main reasons why any system is reluctant to reform:
One is the obstruction of traditional concepts and traditional ideologies. The belief that this new system is irrational and inconsistent with our traditional concepts or ideologies is an important reason for hindering changes in social systems.
The other is that the old system or the huge interest groups that have been created under the old system will harm their interests if changed, and these interest groups are nakedly opposed to the reform of the system for their own interests. These two forces are sometimes combined and difficult to separate.
In the reform of the Qing Dynasty, the first thing to break through was the conceptual obstacle, which was an extremely powerful force. The glory of Chinese history and the splendor of Chinese culture, China has a long-standing view of "tianxia", this "tianxia" is the center of China, the world is centered on "China", and the nations and countries around us are not as long, splendid and developed as Chinese culture.
A decadent and degenerate late Qing dynasty society
Historically, they have all studied Chinese culture, whether it is Japan, Korea, or Vietnam, and even their writing has adopted Chinese characters, in these countries, literate people have to learn Chinese characters, compose Chinese poems, and be proud to be able to use Chinese.
At that time, China was at the center of culture. The relationship between China and its neighboring countries is not only ideological and cultural superiority, but also the superiority of foreign relations, China is a suzerainty, and other countries are vassal states. The so-called Chinese central view is not that everyone is equal, it is centered on Chinese culture, and in this vision, only Chinese culture is culture and culture, and everything else is uncultured and barbaric. Systems, utensils, everything about them is inferior to Chinese culture.
During the Opium War, Lin Zexu found that we were facing enemies who did not understand at all, and our national situation was completely recorded. As chancellor of Chincha, he quietly received missionaries in violation of regulations. Through the missionaries, he learned about the situation outside of China. Subsequently, he sent people to Guangzhou, Macao and other places to collect various foreign materials and translate these materials into a book, "Four Continents".
Subsequently, with the support of Lin Zexu, Wei Yuan compiled the "Chart of the Sea Country", which was introduced in more detail, describing ships, warships, guns, etc.
Lin Zexu and Wei Yuan put forward a slogan: "Shi Yi has a long skill to control Yi." This is even more wrong, because the Chinese tradition believes that there is a defense line between Chinese culture and barbarian culture, and this defense line cannot be destroyed. It can only be the Chinese culture that influences the barbarian culture, not the barbarian culture that affects the Chinese culture.
At that time, Lin Zexu was accused of "changing the summer with Yiyi", accusing him of undermining the defense line of Chinese and foreign cultures, that is, undermining cultural security.
The book "Atlas of the Sea Country", which was not valued in China, inspired the Japanese. Japan has engraved more than 20 editions in just over a decade.
More than 20 years after the publication of the "Chart of the Sea Kingdom", because the Han intellectual Zeng Guofan and others gradually grasped great power in the process of suppressing the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom movement, the previous Qing Dynasty had always been very vigilant against not letting the Han nationality have any military power, and in the process of suppressing the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom, the Xiang Army and the Huai Army had grown in strength, and the Han bureaucrats gradually began to grasp the great power, and felt the power of foreign guns and cannons, and realized the necessity and urgency of "mastering the art of the division to control the Yi". They began to build foreign guns and cannons, and then launched the "Foreign Affairs Movement".
When Li Hongzhang proposed to build a railway, some people stood up against it, saying that once the railway passed, it would alarm the Dragon King and the God of the Earth, and some people said that building a tunnel would alarm the ancestral graves. Some people even suggested that the railway can indeed bring huge benefits, but "China does not pursue profits, but relies on etiquette to rule the world." Seventeen years elapsed from Li Hongzhang's initial proposal to Cixi's final consent.
The same is true for the establishment of a telegraph office, and Li Hongzhang proposed the establishment of a telegraph office. As soon as this statement came out, there was strong opposition from officials, saying that Westerners do not worship the ancestors and worship Jesus Christ, but we Chinese worship the ancestors. The telegram buried in the ground will alarm the ancestors, so it is not filial piety to the ancestors, can filial piety still be loyal?
No one can refute such a big truth. Building railways and building telegraph offices is a good thing for a dynasty, whether it is to suppress internal rebellions or resist external aggression, it needs railway transportation and telegraphs, but the Qing Dynasty believes that this violates ancestral precepts and traditions, and resolutely opposes it. The Westerners believe that it should be done, and the opposition believes that these things can be used by foreigners, but Chinese cannot be used.
There is also a problem is pan-moralization, opponents are not from the technical opposition, but the habit of "going online" to say that this is a traitor, or disrespect the ancestors, resulting in pan-moralization.
At that time, these proposals did not involve any institutional change, but only the introduction of utensils, and the introduction of the most beneficial utensils for the rulers, and they all encountered such a big obstacle, so it is conceivable how much resistance to institutional change will be.
▌ Decadent economic system:
Technological progress vs backward system
Then look at the economic system, whether there was a fixed, formed, rational, and open economic system in the late Qing Dynasty. Previously, the Westerners encountered obstacles in building foreign guns and cannons, but after the introduction of foreign guns and cannons for large-scale production, the Qing government did not change with the times and formulated an economic system that met the requirements of the times. Its economic system is also lagging behind.
The Qing government later understood that the "foreign affairs movement" was good for the regime in manufacturing foreign guns and cannons and producing machines, but it still clearly stipulated that merchants could not engage in it.
We know that the government and officials have encountered resistance to doing this, and private enterprises are completely prohibited. However, the "foreign affairs movement" engaged in machine production, and the manufacture of guns and cannons could not be maintained after a period of time; there were already many opponents and a lot of money, and the ships and guns built could not defeat foreigners at all.
Fortunately, Li Hongzhang was more intelligent, and he analyzed in detail why it was necessary to build ships and warships. After the analysis, he admitted that the opposition had a certain reason, and said that there was no money now, but we had to find a way to make money, how to make money? Production of household goods. The imperial court was impressed by Li Hongzhang and agreed.
From seeking strength to seeking prosperity, this is a huge progress of the "foreign affairs movement," but it requires that only government offices and not private offices be allowed. Li Hongzhang did a lot of research and research, for example, the shipping of the Yangtze River was basically monopolized by foreign businessmen, and these foreign companies often found some Chinese as compradors, and the richest businessmen in China at that time were these people, and they wanted to invest in the Qing government and did not allow them, so they hung up in these foreign companies.
The Qing government's policy was not to allow the private sector, and Li Hongzhang proposed that the officials supervise the commercial office. The names of these companies are called so-and-so "bureaus", such as "steamship merchants bureau". "Bureau" means that it is a yamen under the jurisdiction of the Qing government, and all leaders must have official titles.
This trick has attracted many private capital to withdraw the share capital hanging under foreign businessmen and enter the "bureau", which is nominally an official office, but in fact, a businessman takes a stake and a businessman operates. Because it is run by the government, it will also give various preferential policies and even monopolies, so these enterprises have made a lot of money.
Steamship Merchants Bureau
However, after the development of these businessmen, the shareholding has become a very large enterprise, who owns this enterprise? In today's parlance, the property rights are not clear, does it belong to the Qing government, or does it belong to these private enterprises? The whole economic policy is wobbly.
It is good for everyone to learn more history, we are not allowed to operate privately in the early days of reform and opening up, many enterprises are "wearing red hats", and later many "wearing red hats" enterprises have developed to tens of millions, hundreds of millions, but the property rights are still unclear, more than a hundred years, the same history is constantly repeating. Without a relatively stable economic policy, the harm is not small.
At that time, the official supervision and commercial office was very successful, and everyone wanted to send their relatives, acquaintances, and friends to the enterprise, but did not follow the management of the market enterprise, but completely managed in the logical way of the official field, and slowly the ills were revealed.
At this time, it was necessary to allow the private sector, but the Qing government did not open its mouth and did not take flexible measures. Therefore, it was beneficial to take a detour at a red light at that time, but after a long time, it faced the problem of unclear property rights.
Li Hongzhang took more care of the interests of businessmen, and he felt that he should, but after his death, Yuan Shikai came to power, and Yuan Shikai felt that this should belong to the imperial court and belong to the government, and it was necessary to take back the state, so the interests of the businessmen were damaged. In the late Qing Dynasty, there was no fixed economic policy, and it was always changing.
When Li Hongzhang's viewpoint is dominant, he allows commercial offices and supports private enterprises, while when Yuan Shikai's viewpoint is dominant, he must crack down on private enterprises and nationalize them.
For example, the dispute over the wheel of electricity, that is, the steamship merchants bureau and the telegraph bureau, which were also the official supervisors and commercial offices at that time, and later became completely commercial offices. Soon after the establishment of the Steamship Merchants Bureau, some people felt that it should not be commercially run and should be taken over to the government.
Shanghai Telegraph Office
Li Hongzhang knew that there was no way for the government to do it, and there were many storms during the period, but each time li Hongzhang blocked back. After Li Hongzhang's death, Yuan Shikai took power, and Yuan was very tough and must take it back, believing that these were originally government enterprises.
At that time, Sheng Xuanhuai was a representative of the merchants, and his color as an official was relatively strong, but he also paid attention to the basic interests of the merchants. He and Yuan Shikai fought several times, but at that time, Yuan Shikai was stronger, and the steamship Merchants Bureau took back the state, but after the retraction, it was a mess.
After Cixi's death, the later regent was very wary of Yuan Shikai and sent Yuan Shikai back to his hometown. The whole economic policy is thus turbulent and turbulent. Therefore, the collapse of the Qing government is related to the instability of economic policy.
The specific cause of the collapse of the Qing Dynasty was the railway storm, the road protection movement. At that time, Sichuan was making a lot of noise, why did this situation occur? Or because of unstable economic policies. Is the railway state-owned or commercial?
At the beginning, the Qing government was resolutely opposed to running a railway, but when the railway was set up, it found that the benefits were huge, and all parties wanted to grab this resource. But there was no money to build the railway, so all parties took shares, and the merchants ran the railway, so at that time it was a commercial railway.
People tend to change their strategies as their interests and status change. When Sheng Xuanhuai and Yuan Shikai were fighting, he was defending the interests of businessmen, and after Yuan Shikai was dismissed from office in 1910, Sheng Xuanhuai was reused.
In 1911, he was promoted to Minister of Posts and Communications. After becoming an official, his position changed, and he proposed that the railways and postal services established by the provinces themselves be transferred to the central leadership and nationalized. In fact, at that time, it was all a joint-stock system, and it was also possible to return to the state, and it was possible to redeem it with money according to the joint-stock system.
However, officials always believe that the officials can do whatever they want, and they must sell their shares at a very cheap price. Therefore, Hunan, Hubei, Guangdong, and Sichuan broke out a vigorous road protection movement. Since there were more large merchants in Hunan and Hubei and their strength was relatively strong, the Qing government saw this and took a measure against Hunan and Hubei, redeeming them at the original price and using a fairer price. But in Guangdong, it is different, low-price redemption.
However, because most of the Guangdong businessmen are overseas Chinese, overseas Chinese have money and little contact with the country, they feel that the loss of this money is over, and they will never come again.
But the problem in Sichuan is different, the Sichuan-Han railway in Sichuan is a shareholder of everyone, some civilians put their own family savings into it, but the government has nationalized at a very low price, which is equivalent to robbing the commoners of their savings for many years, so Sichuan's "road protection movement" is vigorous.
Because the local governor suppressed and killed several people, and the Sichuan party and association were particularly developed, the movement finally broke out. The reason for this is that this system does not pay attention to the spirit of contract, and the government does whatever it wants.
▌ Decadent political system:
Reform vs Revolution
If the economic system is like this, the political system is even more lagging behind. Let's talk about the reform of the administrative system first, and we can't even talk about the reform of the administrative system, but the addition of some administrative organs is full of obstacles.
For example, the establishment of diplomatic agencies, "Beiyang" was in charge of diplomacy at the beginning, and it was interesting for local officials to manage diplomacy. China has always considered itself a heavenly kingdom, and other countries are vassal states. After the Opium War, the Qing government was defeated by the great powers and continued to sign unequal treaties.
Tomorrow night, the Qing government was defeated and already tended to an unequal position, but it still wanted to maintain the posture of the Heavenly Dynasty, and felt that the Heavenly Dynasty could not set up a ministry of foreign affairs to communicate with these vassal states, and at first set up five ministers of trade and commerce, who were concurrently served by the viceroy of Liangguang, and later developed to Shanghai, because Shanghai was a small county under the jurisdiction of Jiangsu at that time, so the inspector of Jiangsu took over the duties of the minister of trade and commerce. The Qing government believed that foreign governments could only deal with local governments, could not enter Beijing, or were superior to him.
The Qing government did not think that foreign power was a power that the central government had to grasp. Subsequently, the north opened three ports, and later established the Minister of International Trade and Commerce of the North, also known as the Minister of Beiyang. Beiyang was located in Tianjin, and the basic idea of the Qing government was this: the north was managed by Beiyang and the south was managed by Nanyang, so the entire diplomatic power was delegated to the localities.
Later, Li Hongzhang became the governor and minister of Beiyang, and diplomatic affairs passed through him, almost becoming a foreign ministry without a foreign ministry, which was actually the diplomatic system of the Qing Dynasty.
In 1861, the Qing government established the Prime Minister Yamen, and the Xianfeng Emperor added a trade affairs Yamen, representing equal relations with foreign countries. But this prime minister's door is smaller than the other ministries of the interior, and the door is also very small, indicating that foreigners should enter through the small door.
Prime Minister Yamen
Later, it managed more and more things, and the power of the Beiyang Minister became more and more powerful. The Qing government did not establish the Ministry of Foreign Affairs until 1904, after the Boxer Rebellion, the Eight-Nation Alliance invaded Beijing, and finally launched the New Deal.
It can be seen that not to mention the reform of the political system, the establishment of an administrative body that is most beneficial to the government itself will encounter a lot of resistance and pay a great price.
The ignorance of the Qing government did not stop at foreign affairs. In China, there was no navy but only a marine division, and under the aggression of foreign countries, Li Hongzhang established the Beiyang Marine Division. Li Hongzhang and Zuo Zongtang knew that the navy must have unified standards and unified command, and the imperial court should set up a naval command.
But the imperial court did not do it. There was a modern navy, there was a unified naval command, which was obviously the most beneficial thing to the imperial court, but it was not established until 1884 after the Sino-French Naval War, when it was exposed that there was no naval command, and the navy could not coordinate, support, and cooperate with each other.
Therefore, Zuo Zongtang and Li Hongzhang seized this opportunity to write to the establishment of a naval command. However, after the establishment of the Navy Yamen, there were still many problems, and Cixi put his cronies in charge of the Navy Yamen, and this crony did not know how to manage the Navy at all.
Li Hongzhang will run it part-time. Before this, Prime Minister Yamen saw the problem, and he did not dare to call it the Navy Yamen, but called it Haiphong Yamen, and it was not located in Beijing, but in Yantai.
With the development of the "foreign affairs movement", its shortcomings became more and more clearly manifested in some specific things, and after the defeat of China in the Sino-Japanese War in 1895, the Qing government found that only economic reform was not enough, there must be institutional reform, and the development of the private economy.
Why is there such an understanding? We know that the defeat of the "Sino-Japanese War" was a sign of the bankruptcy of the "Foreign Affairs Movement," and the most important failure of the "Foreign Affairs Movement" was the failure of the Beiyang Marine Division.
We can see from the compromises at that time that Cixi took the budget for the navy to repair the Summer Palace, and Cixi also paid attention to legitimacy, and also estimated her own reputation, and she knew that it was not reasonable to celebrate the sixtieth birthday of the Summer Palace.
So why use Navy money to repair it? The Navy's decision was to establish a naval training base, and Cixi ordered people to dig Kunming Lake next to the Yuanmingyuan, nominally to establish a naval school, but in fact to build an imperial garden for Cixi.
Now, if you look up the archives, you will see that the Summer Palace is a naval school. I wrote an article "Mo Dao Kunming Pond shallow, originally for "training the navy"! That's what it says.
The construction of the Summer Palace for Empress Dowager Cixi in the name of "training the navy" once again proved the importance of government power being constrained and financial openness. When power is unchecked and "secret finances" are practised, those in power can certainly dispose of the finances as they please.
However, although those in power can "spend money" without restriction and doing whatever they want, it is tantamount to taking drugs, and in the end, the interests of the whole society, including the rulers, are seriously damaged. Cixi's embezzlement of huge naval funds to build the Summer Palace for herself and the construction of the "Three Seas Project" (Beihai, Zhonghai, and Nanhai) were important reasons for the failure of the Jiawu Naval Battle, and the defeat of Jiawu was an important step towards the demise of the Qing Dynasty.
At a time when internal and external troubles were constant, finances were on the verge of bankruptcy, and her rule was in jeopardy, she was able to use huge military expenditures to build large-scale construction and luxury gardens to satisfy her "old-fashioned" and recreational desires, and no one dared to come forward to dissuade her, so it could not but be said that the "qi number" of the Qing Dynasty would be exhausted.
On the other hand, the reform of the political system is good for the people and good for the long-term peace and stability of the government. When all this happened, people realized, for example, Li Hongzhang proposed to build a railway to open up the north, but there was no money, and the money was taken to repair the Summer Palace.
Although Cixi opposed Western things, she had to use the most advanced things in the world. At the beginning of the construction of the Beiyang Marine Division, the strength in the world is relatively strong, but the ships are not repaired, the boilers are not replaced, the artillery system is not replaced, and ten years after the completion of the Beiyang Marine Division, Japan also built their fleet in 1888, from 1888 to 1895, Japan added an average of 2 new ships per year, and the Japanese emperor even saved the cost of the palace, allocating "internal funds" to charge shipbuilding and ship purchase costs.
In the past few years, the world's naval shipbuilding level and shipboard artillery technology have developed rapidly, and the speed of ship and the rate of fire of artillery have been greatly improved. The Beiyang Marine Division did not have the money to build a new one, and by the time of the Sino-Japanese Naval Battle, the speed and firepower of the Japanese fleet greatly exceeded that of the Beiyang Fleet.
▌ If there is no reform, there is no reason why it will not die
During the Penghu Restoration, Kang Youwei understood that he could not be too radical, because he knew that the force of opposition was too strong. They only proposed a few development measures, mainly trying to take the route of administrative reform. At that time, many abandoned departments had no role, many officials were paid salaries, and the Qing government was in financial difficulties, so Kang Youwei wanted to take the road of administrative reform, and he wanted to remove these old yamen and lay off some redundant officials.
But the Qing government did not seize this opportunity. It had wanted to circumvent some resistance and engage only in administrative reform, but the resistance it encountered was not small, because it would inevitably infringe on the interests of officials. Hundreds of officials cried around Cixi at the Summer Palace, so Cixi opposed the restoration. It can be seen that the road that leads from administrative reform to political reform cannot be followed.
It can be said that the leaders of the Restoration Movement, Kang Youwei and Liang Qichao, were all readers in the system, and after they were all suppressed, the task of reforming the political system was undertaken by overseas students outside the system, including Sun Yat-sen.
When the Qing government suppressed even the moderate reformers within the system, did not take the initiative to change, and did not adopt a political system that adapted to social development, it was likely to be overthrown by revolutionaries outside the system. After the failure of the restoration, the Qing government made several efforts, but they were unsuccessful.
In this case, in 1904, Cixi proposed to implement the New Deal, which was actually what the reformists had to do a few years ago, and the situation changed dramatically in just a few years. She wanted to do more, but she was unwilling to do more, and then she was faced with contradictions and conflicts, and delaying again and again led to the rise of the constitutionalists.
The rise of the Constitutionalists was related to the Russo-Japanese War, and the Qing government's concern about the Russo-Japanese War was mainly not the war fought in China, how much China lost, and how much the Chinese people suffered, but both the Constitutionalists and diehards were making predictions about whether Russia would win or Japan would win. The constitutionalists in exile think that Japan will win, and the diehards at home think that Russia will definitely win, they think that Russia is an absolute monarchy, with high efficiency, and high efficiency will definitely win.
So everyone predicts the final outcome from their own political ideas. But the result was that Japan won. In modern times, wars have been between the white race and the yellow race, and the Europeans defeating the Asians, and this is the first time that the yellow race has defeated the white race, and Chinese suddenly feel that it is not a problem of the race, but a problem of the political system.
Against this background, the Constitutional Movement of 1904 arose, and Cixi announced that she would carry out a new policy and "prepare for the constitution." However, the Qing government was not sincere, did not take public opinion seriously, and delayed it again and again, and did not open the National Assembly. At that time, some wealthy businessmen organized themselves to petition on the streets and ask for a congress, but the Qing government still delayed. After Cixi's death in 1908, the Qing government said that it would adopt a cabinet system, and people still had some hopes.
In May 1911, as soon as the cabinet system was introduced, people found that it was a complete royal cabinet. According to the tradition of constitutional monarchies, members of the imperial family are not allowed to enter the cabinet, Liang Qichao was in Tokyo with the revolutionaries, at that time there were more people who supported the restoration, the revolutionaries said that the Qing government was a fake reform, Liang Qichao thought that the Qing government would really reform, but as soon as the outline of the preparatory constitutional constitution came out, people knew it was false at a glance.
This preparatory constitutional outline was learned from Japan, but it was a step back from the Meiji Restoration. The Qing Dynasty developed a preparatory constitutional outline that was larger than the Meiji Constitution.
In fact, reform can also achieve the effect that the revolutionaries need, but it is possible for the ruler to really change, and in the end the people think that the ruler will not change, then the prospect of the reformists does not exist. As soon as the outline of the preparatory constitution came out, the students studying abroad immediately turned to the revolutionaries, and the revolutionary forces became very large.
The Qing government wanted to carry out administrative system reform again, and the specific operator was Yuan Shikai. Yuan Shikai's ability is very strong, but the reform of the administrative system only requires adding some departments to abolish some departments, and legend has it that he wants to abolish the internal affairs office where the eunuchs are located, causing a group of eunuchs to surround him and beat him. Later, Yuan Shikai left Beijing, and the reform of the administrative system was not completed. Both administrative reforms met with great resistance.
In fact, at that time, if the resistance to the direct reform of the political system was probably smaller, the officials were extremely resistant to the reduction of their power, and the power of all people who engaged in constitutional system was limited, and everyone's mind might be a little more balanced. And to carry out administrative reform, it is possible that his power will increase and my power will weaken, then my resistance will be very strong.
When these reforms failed to bear fruit, the revolutionaries inevitably changed from a minority to a majority, and when the Qing government created another imperial cabinet, people thought it was false. The railway was nationalized there, the broad masses of the people in Sichuan rebelled, and the Qing Dynasty soon collapsed.
It can be seen from the above that the Qing government never took the initiative to change a certain political system and establish a certain political system, and was always pushed by the environment, the times, and history, and it was always beaten to the point of not being able to change a little, or it always did what should be done in the next stage.
When you do the things in the previous stage in the next stage is far from enough, you should do more, that is to say, you should "pay interest", and the Qing Dynasty is not willing to pay interest, unwilling to pay interest can only lead to more and more interest to be paid, just like usury, so the lag of the economic and political system is the most important reason for the collapse of the Qing Dynasty.
Without a stable economic policy, without a political system that keeps pace with the times and is constantly coordinated and improved, it will eventually become rigid and eventually collapse.
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