Failure Analysis Laboratory Semiconductor Engineer 2022-01-09 05:08
First, the electrification and intelligence driven by the Internet of Things have brought about a new cycle of power semiconductors
(1) Review the 2020-2021 power semiconductor cycle: price increases and hidden worries
The increase in the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones opened at the end of 2019 has become a source of demand momentum for the entire semiconductor industry, and the market is full of confidence in the strong growth of 5G mobile phones in the next few years, but in 2020, the new crown epidemic has occurred worldwide, and the demand outbreak of 5G mobile phones has been pressed the pause button. With the further development of the epidemic, home office has brought huge demand for remote servers, the laptop market that has been quiet for ten years has ushered in a substantial growth, and the rapid development of domestic electric vehicles has further stimulated the demand for power semiconductors driven by the dual-carbon policy. Under the positive growth trend on the demand side, the chip supply side has shrunk significantly due to the impact of the epidemic, and the indefinite lockdown of Malaysia, the global power semiconductor sealing and testing town, will undoubtedly worsen the power semiconductor industry.
Due to the mismatch between supply and demand of power semiconductors, the original low-priced power devices in the fab capacity supply priority is relatively low, wafer production capacity supply is tight when the OEM and packaging and testing costs rose sharply, major power semiconductor manufacturers have significantly increased product prices, it is expected that the average price of the industry will increase by more than 20%, and some products will even increase prices by 7-8 times. According to our review of the 2020-2021 cycle, the average gross interest rate of the industry hit a record high in nearly a decade in Q3 2021, and the industry's growth rate of nearly 29% also far exceeded the growth high of the previous cycle. However, the soaring power semiconductor market also makes the market full of worries about the price correction pressure in 2022, and everyone still remembers the tragic price decline in the downward cycle that began in Q4 2018, especially the consumer-related power semiconductor prices, and the price decline pressure in 2022 is larger.
(2) Downstream applications of power semiconductors are in full bloom, and the demand for electric vehicles and photovoltaic/wind power new energy has surged
Automobiles account for the highest proportion of the downstream demand for discrete devices in the world, reaching about 35%, and the automotive industry accounts for 27% of the use of discrete devices in the domestic market. The low- and medium-voltage discrete devices represented by MOSFETs are widely used in electric sunroofs, wipers, airbags, rearview mirrors and other fields of automobiles, and the demand for MOSFETs for vehicle chargers (OBC) and DC-DC converters for pure electric vehicles has further increased. In addition, after the car lights were converted to LED headlights, the demand for MOSFETs increased from the original 1 per lamp to 18, and the demand for MOSFETs for MOSFETs for the roof and side gradient glass that many new car-making forces are keen on is also growing.
There are only a small number of IGBT single tubes in traditional fuel vehicles for engine igniters, and after the power system of pure electric vehicles is converted to batteries, IGBT modules have become the standard configuration of inverters in electric drive systems, in addition, new energy vehicles also need IGBT single tubes in vehicle chargers (OBC), DC-DC boosters, and electric air conditioning drives. According to the industry chain survey and our calculations, the four-wheel drive version of the pure electric model requires 18 IGBTs in front and rear dual motors, 4 on-board chargers, 8 electric air conditioners, and a total of 48 IGBT chips for an electric vehicle.
According to Strategy Analytics, the power semiconductor consumption of traditional fuel vehicles is only $71, and the value of power semiconductors in 48V light hybrid models has increased to $90, while the power semiconductor consumption of pure electric models has increased by as much as 364%, rising sharply to $330.
Under the dual-carbon policy, the installed capacity of new energy power generation represented by photovoltaic and wind power has increased significantly, and DC-DC dc converters and photovoltaic inverters in solar power generation need to use IGBT as power switches. Among them, the efficiency of the inverter depends largely on the components used in the design, and the performance of the components can be measured by the power loss, which is divided into conduction loss and switching loss. Compared to MOSFETs, IGBTs are suitable for applications with lower switching frequencies and high currents, with lower conduction losses than MOSFETs at high currents, and MOSFETs have the ability to meet high frequency, small current applications, with lower switching losses, and are more suitable for inverter modules with switching frequencies above 100KHz.
From the perspective of inverter category, due to the small power of micro and single-phase inverters, IGBT single-tube schemes are generally used, high-power three-phase inverters use IGBT modules, and low-power three-phase inverters are used in both schemes. At present, the cost of centralized photovoltaic inverter is 0.16-0.17 yuan / W, the cost of string photovoltaic inverter is about 0.2 yuan / W, the overall cost of photovoltaic inverter is 0.2 yuan / w, IGBT module accounts for about 15% of the cost of photovoltaic inverter, and the value of each GW corresponding to power semiconductor is about 0.3 billion to 0.4 billion yuan.
In addition to the two major driving forces of electric vehicles and photovoltaic power generation, there are also a large number of discrete devices with power semiconductors in smart homes, such as multi-functional sweeping robots. In a sweeper, there may be different parts of the use of such power discrete devices: wireless charging, battery management system, audio amplifier, vacuum cleaner, cleaning system motor control, mobile motor control, etc., due to different functions, the required MOS is not the same, about 2-6 pieces. (Source: Future Think Tank)
(3) The competitive pattern of the power semiconductor industry
The global power semiconductor industry market size reached $46.4 billion in 2019, down 3.53% year-on-year compared to 2018 in the last boom cycle. In 2020 and 2021, the epidemic affected the global "home office mode", the strong recovery of servers and PCs superimposed on the demand for high-boom electric vehicles and new energy power generation, and the power semiconductor industry ushered in an inflection point. SIA expects global semiconductor sales to reach $553 billion in 2021, a new high of 25.6% year-on-year, and the global leading power semiconductor manufacturers Infineon, NXP NXP, STMicroelectronics STM, ON SEMI, will grow by 32.5%, 31.43%, 31.8% and 28.5% in the first three quarters of 2021, respectively, and we expect the global power semiconductor industry growth rate to reach 30% in 2021. The market size will be close to $60 billion. From the perspective of the global demand structure of power semiconductor discrete devices, automobiles are the largest demand area, accounting for 35%, followed by industrial and consumer electronics, accounting for 27% and 13% of demand, respectively.
From the product form classification, power semiconductors can be divided into discrete devices, modules and power ICs three categories, one is discrete device refers to a single tube, that is, 1 chip plus package shell, the second type is a module, the several single tubes and specific functions of the circuit packaged together to form a module, the third type is the power IC, including AC DC converter AC / DC, DC - DC converter DC / DC, power management IC and drive IC. In 2019, the market size of discrete devices/modules and power ICs was 22.4 billion and 24 billion US dollars, respectively, of which Infineon was the well-deserved global leader in the discrete devices and module market, with a market share of 19%, the US power semiconductor giant ON Semiconductor had a market share of 8.4%, the power IC market share was the highest in Texas Instruments TI with a market share of 16%, followed by Infineon and ADI, accounting for 7.7% and 7.2%, respectively.
According to Omdia's statistics, the domestic power semiconductor market size in 2019 was about $17.7 billion, accounting for about 38% of global market demand, and in 2020, with the recovery of the semiconductor industry entering a new round of high-growth cycle. At present, the largest revenue scale of domestic power semiconductor discrete device manufacturers is Nexperia Semiconductor acquired by Wingtech Technology, with revenue of 9.64 billion yuan in 2020, a substantial growth of 53.3% in 2021, and power semiconductor revenue increased to 14.78 billion yuan.
China's local IDM manufacturers in the power semiconductor revenue of the largest manufacturer is China Resources Microelectronics, in 2020 the company's power semiconductor revenue reached 2.8 billion yuan, is expected to increase revenue by 49.3% year-on-year in 2021, more than 4.1 billion yuan. The MOSFET manufacturers represented by the Fab-less model, Wuxi New Clean Energy, and IGBT module manufacturer Jiaxing Star Semiconductor have achieved faster growth in 2021, and their revenues are expected to increase by 64.8% and 71.6% respectively in 2021. The total revenue of the top ten domestic power semiconductor manufacturers in 2021 reached 36.25 billion yuan, an increase of 57.4% year-on-year, compared with the growth rate of 16.1% in the first three quarters of 2021 in the domestic integrated circuit industry, showing the recovery trend of the power semiconductor industry beyond expectations.
The main domestic power semiconductor manufacturers to discrete devices, including diodes, rectifiers, MOSFETs, etc., diode transistors belong to the basic electronic components, these years the technical iteration is slower, the price is relatively low, the industry barriers are lower. The Schottky diode is named after its inventor Schottky, and unlike the PN diode, the Schottky diode is not made using the principle of P-type semiconductor contact with N-type semiconductor to form a PN junction, but using the principle of metal-semiconductor barrier formed by the contact between metal and semiconductor. Schottky diodes are mostly used as high-frequency, low-voltage, high-current rectifier diodes, freewheeling diodes, protection diodes, such as mobile phone and handheld device adapters, secondary power rectification for color TVs, high-frequency power rectification and other applications. In recent years, with the market changes in the miniaturization of fast charging sources such as power adapters for handheld devices such as mobile phones, traditional Schottky has been unable to meet the needs of low conduction voltage, and TMBS with a groove structure will become the mainstream of Schottky products.
Power MOSFETs were developed in the 1970s on the basis of classic MOSFETs and are mainly used as power electronic switches. Unlike classical MOSFETs, power MOSFETs focus on improving power characteristics, especially increasing the operating voltage and operating current of the device. Power MOSFETs have produced many new process structures around how to solve the contradiction between withstand voltage and power consumption, starting from LD MOSFET structures through VV MOSFETs, VU MOSFETs, VD MOSFETs, SJ MOSFETs (superjuncts), Trench MOSFETs (groove type), SGT MOSFETs (shielding grids).
Trench MOSFETs, mainly used in the low voltage (100V) field; SGT (Shielded Gate Transistor, shielded gate groove) MOSFETs, mainly used in the medium and low voltage (200V) fields; SJ-MOSFETs, that is, superjunction MOSFETs, are mainly used in the high voltage (600V-800V) field. SGT MOSFET (Shield Gate Trench MOSFET) is a new type of power semiconductor device, the SGT process is simpler than ordinary grooves, and the switching loss is small. Coupled with the fact that SGT is 3-5 times deeper than the ordinary trench process excavation depth, more epitaxial volume can be used laterally to block the voltage, which also makes the internal resistance of SGT more than 2 times lower than that of ordinary MOSFETs, so SGT MOSFE is used as a switching device for motor drive systems, inverter systems and power management systems in the fields of new energy electric vehicles, new photovoltaic power generation, energy-saving home appliances, etc., and is the core power control component.
At present, there are many domestic power semiconductor manufacturers, product line differences are also relatively large, the main product of manufacturers with large revenue scale is MOSFETs, with the substantial demand for IGBT in the field of electric vehicles and photovoltaic, wind power and other new energy power generation, various manufacturers have begun to gradually expand the product line to IGBT, and some leading manufacturers have begun to lay out the power MOSFET of the third-generation semiconductor SiC substrate. According to our statistics, the most complete domestic manufacturer in the power semiconductor product layout is Wingtech Technology's Nexperia Semiconductor, first of all, the company's main product line covers transistors (including protection devices ESD/TVS, etc.), Mosfet power tubes, analog and logic IC three major areas, small model MOSFET ranks second in the world, the company's automotive POWER MOSFET is expected to have a market position second only to Infineon. Secondly, the company has further strengthened its product layout in medium and high voltage Mosfet, compound semiconductor products SiC and GaN by increasing R&D investment, and at the same time acquired 100% of the equity of the Uk Newport fab, obtaining 4,000 pieces/month of IGBT production capacity, and the company's Hamburg plant has begun to move into silicon carbide equipment, and it is expected that the new SiC MOSFET will be mass-produced in 2022.
In the field of MOSFET, New Clean Energy and China Resources Micro in the groove MOS, shielding grid SGT-MOS and super junction SJ-MOS and other high value-added products have a leading edge in technology, new clean energy is the first in China to master the super junction theory technology, and mass production of SGT MOSFET and super junction power MOSFET one of the enterprises, is the earliest in China at the same time with groove type power MOSFET, super junction power MOSFET, SGT MOSFET product platform of local enterprises. Medium and low voltage MOSFET has basically been supplied by domestic manufacturers, SGT-MOSFET domestic substitution trend has been relatively clear, with the development of 5G, AI, EV (electric vehicle) and other application markets, the demand for SGT-MOSFET will continue to grow.
In the field of IGBT, BYD Semiconductor and Times Electric are the leading manufacturers of domestic supply of new energy vehicle specifications IGBT and rail train IGBT, the first-mover advantage is obvious, Silan Micro occupies a significant advantage in the IPM module market in the field of home appliances, the market share in 2021 is close to 10%, Star Semiconductor has accumulated in the field of IGBT modules for many years, and has now cut into the design of IGBT chips, and the IGBT modules have been shipped in large quantities.
(4) Supply and demand analysis of power semiconductor industry
Assuming that the global automobile sales reach 100 million in 2030, if 50% of the fuel vehicles are replaced by electric vehicles, corresponding to about 50 million electric vehicles, according to the calculation of the value of the single vehicle power semiconductor of 400 US dollars, it is expected that the global vehicle power semiconductor market size will reach 20 billion US dollars, if the domestic electric vehicle market accounts for 50% of the world, then the domestic vehicle power semiconductor market space will reach 10 billion US dollars in 2030. Stock market in 2021 the global power semiconductor market size will grow to 44.1 billion US dollars, domestic demand accounted for 36% of the global market share, 2021 market size is expected to reach 15.9 billion US dollars, the next decade according to the compound growth rate of 5%, the stock market such as industrial control and home appliances in the field of demand will reach 23.9 billion US dollars in 2030. The photovoltaic field for power semiconductor market demand is 3 billion US dollars, after the sum is expected to reach 36.9 billion US dollars by 2030, corresponding to the market space of about 250 billion yuan.
1 new energy vehicle consumes an average of 8-inch silicon wafers, of which discrete devices, IGBT consume 0.4 pieces, DMOS accounts for 0.1 pieces, IC accounts for 0.5 pieces, mainly MCU and power management chips, new energy vehicle sales in 2021 are 3.4 million units, an increase of 1.5 times year-on-year, it is expected that in 2022 domestic new energy vehicle sales will reach 5 million units, the corresponding incremental demand is 1.6 million pieces of 8-inch wafers, equivalent to 13 to 140,000 pieces of monthly production capacity, if 2025 domestic Sales of electric vehicles reached 10 million units, corresponding to incremental demand of 540,000-550,000 pieces of monthly production capacity.
As of 2020, the global wafer production capacity is about 20.82 million pieces/month (equivalent 8 inches), the Chinese mainland wafer production capacity is 15.3%, and it is expected to be 3.184 million pieces/month (equivalent 8 inches), the 12-inch production capacity of major domestic fabs is about 1 million pieces/month, and the 8-inch production line is about 1.15 million pieces/month. Among them, we calculate the capacity increase of all domestic power semiconductor manufacturers' new production lines, and it is expected that the new power semiconductor production capacity in 2022 will be 180,000 pieces / month (equivalent 8 inches), if we assume that the domestic new electric vehicle sales in 2022 are 2 million units, and the global new 5 million electric vehicles, it is necessary to correspond to about 2.5 million pieces of 8-inch annual production capacity, corresponding to the need to add 208,000 pieces of monthly production capacity, and the new production capacity of global power semiconductors is almost all in China, only to meet the global electricity The new supply of demand for EMUs is not enough, and the supply gap will further increase if the capacity required for photovoltaics is taken into account.
Second, the era of electric vehicles: IGBT manufacturers IDM is king
In new energy vehicles, IGBT is mainly used in motor drive control systems, thermal management systems, power supply systems, etc., the specific functions are as follows: in the main inverter, IGBT converts the direct current of the high-voltage battery into the alternating current of the three-phase motor; in the vehicle charger, the IGBT converts the alternating current into direct current and charges the high-voltage battery; in the DC-DC converter, the IGBT converts the high voltage output of the high-voltage battery into a low voltage for the use of the automobile's low-voltage power supply network; in addition, IGBT It is also widely used in auxiliary inverters such as PTC heaters, water pumps, oil pumps, and air conditioning compressors to complete low-power DC-AC conversion. (Source: Future Think Tank)
(1) The outbreak of electric vehicles has brought about a surge in IGBT demand
1. IGBT in electric drive inverter
The electric drive system is the core of a pure electric car, which can be understood as the engine of a traditional fuel vehicle, which mainly contains an inverter, a gearbox and a motor. The electronic power control device in the inverter such as IGBT/SiC MOSFET will convert the DC in the battery into alternating current transmission to the three-phase motor, the motor starts from 0rpm/min to output peak torque, but when the motor speed is higher than the constant torque range, the motor torque will drop, so the intervention of the reducer is required, and the reducer can achieve the effect of reducing speed and increasing torque through the transmission of multi-stage gears, so as to meet the demand for torque when the vehicle is running at high speed. The future development trend of the electric drive system is highly integrated, the current mainstream electric drive using a three-in-one integrated electric drive, if measured according to the shipment of 3.4 million electric vehicles in 2021, we expect the domestic electric drive market capacity to be about 22.1 billion yuan.
Usually we convert AC to DC is called rectification, in turn DC conversion to AC is called inverter, the core function of the inverter of electric vehicles is to convert the DC power output of the power battery into alternating current for driving the motor. The inverter on the pure electric vehicle is located in the motor controller (MCU), in addition to the inverter, there is a controller together in the MCU, the MCU is the control center of the entire power system. The controller is to accept the demand signal of the driving motor, when the vehicle brakes or accelerates, the controller controls the frequency rise and fall of the frequency converter to make the car run. The inverter receives the direct current power output from the power battery, and the reverse becomes a three-phase alternating current to provide the motor operation, and it plays the role of braking and recovering electrical energy during the braking process of the electric vehicle.
Inside the inverter is 6 IGBTs. Most of the power semiconductor value increment of electric vehicles comes from IGBT modules, single MOSFETs are only about 400 yuan in value, 1 IGBT module is about 1000 yuan, the current A0/A00 class electric vehicles with 1 inverter, 1 IGBT module, if it is a four-wheel drive electric vehicle generally uses 2 modules, the value is about 2000 yuan, the bus uses 3 modules, about 3000 yuan, so the average IGBT bicycle value is 2000 yuan.
2. IGBT used in vehicle OBC
Vehicle charger refers to a fixed installation on the electric vehicle charger, with the ability to power the battery for electric vehicles, safe, automatic full charge, the charger according to the battery management system (BMS) to provide data, can dynamically adjust the charging current or voltage parameters, perform the corresponding actions, complete the charging process, usually the vehicle charger as a node, hanging on the CAN bus, through CAN and vehicle controller exchange data. There are many different power levels for chargers, and the higher the power level, the shorter the charging time. These chargers require a large amount of AC power and are powered by single- or three-phase power sources, depending on the design of the on-board chargers. Four universal power levels have been developed based on the typical AC power sources available worldwide, and the 3.3kW and 6.6kW chargers have become the basic building blocks for chargers for all power levels. Both the 11 kW and 22 kW chargers combine three single-phase units, each running one of the three phases.
The AC input source from the grid is filtered, rectified and fed into a multiphase PFC circuit. A PFC circuit is a switching circuit that controls the on-period of the input sine wave to regulate the input current to conform to the input voltage. This voltage-current regulation produces a high power factor for ac power sources and is regulated by most utilities. This process is divided into several phases, spreading the conduction losses across a wider set of devices. The next module uses an H-bridge converter to reduce the DC voltage and transmit it to the input of the transformer. The block is typically designed using a resonant LLC circuit, and the control of the amount of voltage applied to the transformer makes it easier to adjust the battery power. Finally, the output of the transformer is rectified, filtered and connected to a high-voltage battery. In terms of value, taking 6.6KW slow charge as an example, it takes more than 20 IGBTs and MOSFET discretes, and the overall cost is below 300 yuan.
3. IGBT module in the charging pile
Charging piles can be divided into two categories according to different charging capabilities: AC slow charging and DC fast charging to deal with different power consumption scenarios. The first-stage charging pile is a 120 V, output 15 A or 20 A AC charging pile, which adds about 4 to 6 miles per hour of charging. The second stage charging power is available in four power levels of 3.3 kW, 6.6 kW, 9.6 kW, and 19.2 kW, and is suitable for 240 V AC power outlets with output currents of 20 A, 20 A, 50 A, and 100 A, respectively. Dc Fast Charging (DCFC) piles have an input voltage of 440 V or 480 V and can be charged to about 80% in 30 minutes for public charging piles.
The charging pile will be developed from the current mainstream 60 kW, 90 kW to the future 150 kW, 240 kW, and the charging pile power module will be increased from the current 15 kW, 20 kW, 30 kW to the future 40 kW, 50 kW, 60 kW to shorten the time of full charge. For example, a 210 kW electric vehicle charging point consists of 14 15 kW modules, each with a 15 kW battery charger module consisting of a 3-phase AC 380 V input, which after 3-phase Vienna Power Factor Correction (PFC), rises to 800 V DC, and then outputs 250 V to 750 V DC via high voltage DC-DC.
Vienna rectifier + LLC forms the basic circuit of the charging pile. If equipment cost is considered, the use of Si-based IGBT and super junction MOSFET, FRD (Fast Recovery Diode) solutions is more cost-effective, and if high power density and high efficiency are required, silicon carbide MOS/SBD solutions are more advantageous. The PFC part is more suitable for the use of silicon carbide devices, for two reasons: first, the on-resistance increase at high temperatures is less, which can achieve high efficiency, while suppressing heat generation, using a smaller heat sink; second, the recovery loss of silicon carbide devices is very small, the switching loss is small, which can increase the operating frequency and help miniaturize the input coil. As silicon solutions, Si-based super junction MOS and IGBTs are also good alternatives. In terms of value, slow charging within 20KW with half-bridge industrial IGBT, single pile value within 200 yuan, if the use of super fast charging 100KW or more, super power charging pile will use SiC scheme, the cost will be multiplied, the overall value will be increased to more than 1000 yuan.
(2) IGBT market demand structure and market demand forecast
1. The global market size is expected to be about 7.68 billion US dollars in 2021, and the demand for vehicle regulations is growing rapidly
The global IGBT market size is expected to be $6.4 billion in 2019, and will decline slightly to $6.047 billion in 2020, and the market will begin to recover rapidly in 2021, and the global IGBT market size is expected to increase by 20% year-on-year to reach $7.68 billion in 2021. From the perspective of market structure, IGBT is mainly in the form of IPM modules and IGBT modules, the total revenue of the two accounts for more than 76%, the highest proportion of discrete single tubes and IGBT modules is Infineon of Germany, with a market share of more than 30%, and in the IPM module market, Mitsubishi market share of Japan ranks first, as high as 32.7%. From the perspective of the proportion of global applications of IGBT modules in 2020, industrial control accounts for 33.5%, which is the largest application field of IGBT at present, and new energy vehicles account for 14.2%. In the future, the electrification and intelligence of automobiles will promote vehicle-grade IGBTs to become the fastest growing segment.
According to the statistics of Jibang Consulting, the size of China's IGBT market in 2018 is expected to be 15.3 billion yuan, compared with 2017, an increase of 19.91% year-on-year, in 2020, benefiting from the substantial growth in demand for new energy vehicles and new energy power generation such as photovoltaic and wind power, China's IGBT market size continues to grow, we expect that the domestic IGBT market size will increase to 59.2 billion yuan in 2025, and the compound growth rate CAGR from 2020 to 2025 will be 27%. From the analysis of demand structure, the largest proportion of domestic IGBT demand in 2018 is new energy vehicles, accounting for 31%, followed by consumer electronics and industrial control, with the market size accounting for 27% and 20% respectively.
2. The rapid growth of sales of new energy vehicles has led to the rise of domestic IGBT manufacturers
According to the China Automobile Association, China's new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 3.4 million in 2021, compared with 1.37 million new energy vehicle sales in 2020, a 148% year-on-year increase. According to the industry chain survey, we expect that in 2021, the proportion of new energy vehicles supported by domestic manufacturers will increase, of which Star Semiconductor supporting cars is 500,000 sets, accounting for 15%, BYD Semiconductor is mainly supporting byBYD models under the same group, according to the company's 2020 production capacity of 400,000 sets is expected to account for 12% of the on-board IGBT market, with the full production capacity of CRRC Times Electric Phase I, it is expected that about 240,000 electric vehicles account for 7%, Tesla sales are estimated to be 400,000 in China, Accounting for 12%, Tesla's models are mainly supplied by STMicroelectronics as the core device of the inverter, Infineon as the leading domestic in-vehicle IGBT manufacturer is expected to continue to maintain a market share of nearly 50%, and other German and Japanese manufacturers account for about 13% of the supply.
Starting from October 2021, the lack of cores in the global automotive sector has gradually eased, and we expect that domestic new energy vehicle sales are expected to exceed 5 million to 5.5 million in 2022, an increase of 62% year-on-year. Through our industrial chain tracking and research, the domestic manufacturers IGBT production line has been put into mass production at the end of 2021, and it is expected that the domestic vehicle IGBT chip market pattern will undergo great changes in 2022. First of all, the most obvious increase in market share is expected to be CRRC Times Electric, because the company's monthly production capacity of 20,000 pieces of 8-inch line has been put into production at the end of 2021, full production can supply 2 million new energy vehicles required IGBT modules, Laping is estimated to be 1.06 million vehicles supported by the company's vehicle IGBT throughout the year, the market share increased from 7% to 19%, followed by Silan Micro due to the 12-inch IGBT production line put into production, is expected to be equipped with about 200,000 electric vehicles next year, the market share of 4%. ON Semiconductor in the United States expects to have about 200,000 electric vehicles in 2022, with a market share of 4%. Market share of BYD and STMicroelectronics is expected to remain stable, while the share of Star and Infineon will decline.
3. The domestic substitution of IGBT will be accelerated, and the market space will be 50-60 billion yuan in 2025
From the perspective of investing in power semiconductors, we are more optimistic about the layout of the IGBT field, on the one hand, the technology of MOSFETs is relatively mature, on the other hand, the incremental power demand of trams is mainly IGBT. From 2019 to 2020, the sales scale of domestic new energy vehicles will be 1.2-1.3 million units, the growth rate is relatively stable, and the sales of domestic new energy vehicles in 2021 will reach 3.4 million units, calculated according to the value of single-vehicle power semiconductors of 3000 yuan, corresponding to about 10.2 billion on-board IGBT market size. It is estimated that by 2025, the sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles will reach about 10 million units, and the corresponding demand space will be about 30 billion (excluding the substitution of SiC for IGBT).
The photovoltaic market this year according to the installed capacity of 200GW, the expected market size of about 5 billion yuan, it is expected that in 2025 the installed capacity of photovoltaic inverters will reach about 400GW, the corresponding market demand will reach 11 billion yuan. Stock Market is mainly industrial, home appliances and fuel vehicles used in the field of IGBT demand, is expected to be about 15 billion in 2021, the industrial control field accounted for a relatively high, is expected to be 10 billion yuan, if the next 5 years of industrial control field to drive the stock of IGBT market in accordance with the annual compound growth rate of about 5%, is expected to reach 18.2 billion yuan in 2025. Combined with the demand for industrial and home appliances in the comprehensive stock market, coupled with the rapid growth of the demand for power semiconductors in vehicles and photovoltaics, it is expected that the domestic power semiconductor market will reach 59.23 billion yuan by 2025. In 2021, the scale of vehicle IGBT is only 6 billion, and the scale of IGBT for photovoltaic inverters is 5 billion, optimistically, there is still 5 times the growth space of vehicle IGBT, and there is 2 times of photovoltaic, and there is still four times the growth space in total.
(3) The IDM model finally wins, and the competitiveness of all aspects of the industrial chain is comprehensively reflected
IGBT downstream demand is mainly concentrated in the automotive, industrial control and home appliances and other fields, unlike MOSFET mostly in the form of discrete devices, IGBT in more common forms such as IGBT modules and IPM modules are widely used in automobiles and home appliance terminal products, especially the automotive industry in Europe, Japan and the United States are more developed, so the IGBT chip market is mainly controlled by Germany's Infineon, Japan's Rohm, Mitsubishi and the United States manufacturers ON Semiconductor and ST ST Semiconductor and other manufacturers. Since IGBT chips generally use IDM mode from wafer production to chip packaging and testing and module packaging, IGBT module suppliers are mainly provided by chip manufacturers. The IGBT module is the core component of the electric vehicle inverter, so Bosch, Denso, Delphi and other Tier1 auto parts integration manufacturers will purchase IGBT modules to produce electric drive systems for downstream automotive OEMs, in addition to some domestic OEMs such as Great Wall Motors, Changan Automobile, Chery and Wei from the main production of inverters.
Domestic electric vehicle sales account for half of the global electric vehicle market, but due to the impact of the epidemic, the capacity utilization rate of overseas factories of large IGBT factories in Europe and the United States is low, the average delivery time of Infineon's on-board IGBT is more than one year, and the domestic automobile main engine factory seriously restricts automobile sales due to the lack of core. As the main force of electric vehicles, domestic independent brand manufacturers have taken the lead in introducing domestic IGBT chip products, which has given the rise of domestic IGBT chips a historic opportunity.
As a leading domestic electric vehicle company, BYD Semiconductor acquired Ningbo Zhongwei's IDM fab in 2008 and began to enter the IGBT chip industry chain, introduced BYD electric vehicles in 2012, developed IGBT in 2015, began to develop IGBT in 2015, and in 2020, The Ningbo production line has the supporting capacity of 400,000 sets of electric vehicles IGBT modules, and in 2021, it acquired Jinan Funeng's 8-inch production line, adding an annual production capacity of about 900,000 new energy vehicles, with a total of 1.3 million supporting quantities.
CRRC Times Electric is a leading manufacturer of high-voltage IGBT chips in China, and dennicks, which acquired the United Kingdom in 2012, began to enter the production and research and development of IGBT chips. In 2017, it began to expand from the 6500V, 7500V high-voltage field to the 650V, 750V and 1200V vehicle specification-level IGBT module market, and began to introduce buses, logistics vehicles and A00-class vehicles in 2018, and after the chip design revision in 2019-2021, it has become the first manufacturer of IGBT chips in China to break through the A-class car, and at the same time maintain close cooperation with Tier1 manufacturers such as Huichuan. The company previously had an 8-inch production line with a monthly production capacity of 10,000 pieces, and an 8-inch line with a monthly production capacity of 20,000 pieces in the second phase of 2021 was put into operation, which is expected to be supported by about 2 million new energy vehicles IGBT modules, and is expected to obtain a large market share of in-vehicle IGBT chips in 2022 with the production capacity advantage of IDM manufacturers.
Star Semiconductor began to enter the IGBT chip market in 2008, the first also purchased chips from Infineon, in 2015 there was an opportunity to cut into the production of IGBT chips, in 2015 Infineon acquired IR (International Rectifier) to disband its chip research and development team, the team became the Star Semiconductor chip research and development team, in 2016 began to promote its own chips, the company's products have been applied in buses, logistics vehicles and A00 class electric vehicles In 2020, the company will produce about 200,000 new energy vehicles for the on-board IGBT module, and it is expected that the number of supporting vehicles will increase to 500,000 units in 2021.
Silan micro in the field of home appliances IPM module shipments advantage is obvious, 2020 IPM module shipments of about 18 million pieces, the first half of 2021 shipments increased by 150%, has accounted for 10% of the global shipments, the company from home appliances into the field of vehicle IGBT, there are already A00 level customers such as zero run and Ryo electric began to use Silan micro's vehicle IGBT module. Due to the company's IDM model, product iterations are very fast, with iterative version 3 months, compared to more than 6 months for Fabless vendors. At present, Silan Micro's A-class car 750V module performance is in the industry leading, the output power can reach 160kw-180Kw, the company's 12-inch fab has been put into operation, is expected to achieve a monthly production capacity of 35,000 pieces by the end of the year.
(4) The supply of IGBT is tightly balanced, and the industry will enter an explosive period in 2022
We believe that in 2022, the domestic IGBT industry will enter an explosive period, and the replacement process of domestic IGBT manufacturers in the field of in-vehicle IGBT will accelerate. On the one hand, the sales of domestic new energy vehicles in 2022 are expected to be more optimistic, and the average growth rate of the market is expected to be more than 50%, but the delivery time of foreign IGBT chip manufacturers such as Infineon and ON Semiconductor is more than one year on average, and the overseas electric vehicle market such as Europe and the United States has also begun to enter a period of rapid growth, and these international manufacturers will give priority to ensuring local supply. In the case of tight supply and demand, domestic IGBT manufacturers have become the most important chip supply guarantee for domestic electric vehicle OEMs, and the IGBT production capacity of manufacturers such as Times Electric, Silan Micro and Huahong Semiconductor has been put into production at the end of 2021, and is expected to become the most beneficial manufacturer of IGBT chip localization. For domestic IGBT manufacturers, the most beneficial manufacturers are still the IDM model-based manufacturers, such as BYD Semiconductor, Times Electric and SilanWei.
We believe that the market for the IGBT chip supply after the sharp opening of the IGBT chip market competition to increase the concern can not be, we sorted out the domestic next year's new IGBT production capacity, if you flatten the IGBT supply increase for the whole year of 2022, is expected to be 50,400 pieces / month, if you consider the yield and other issues, the actual production capacity is expected to be less than 40,000 pieces / month, for next year's 2 million electric vehicles IGBT chip consumption will reach 2-3 million pieces / month, if Considering the IGBT chips used in fields such as photovoltaics and wind power, it is expected that the supply of production capacity is relatively tight.
Third, the new world of silicon carbide: the substrate has become the most important link in the industrial chain
(1) The excellent performance of silicon carbide devices brings new alternative needs
1. SiC and IGBT performance comparison
The on-resistance of the same siC MOSFET is reduced to 1/200 and the size to 1/10 compared to the silicon MOSFET, and the total energy loss of the same specification of the inverter using the siC MOSFET is less than 1/4 compared to the silicon IGBT. Due to the above-mentioned excellent properties of silicon carbide devices, they can meet the new requirements of power electronics technology for harsh working conditions such as high temperature, high power, high voltage, high frequency and radiation resistance, thus becoming one of the most promising materials in the field of semiconductor materials. The specific comparison is as follows:
Low energy loss. The switching loss and on loss of the SiC module are significantly lower than those of the same IGBT module, and with the increase of the switching frequency, the greater the loss difference with the IGBT module, the SiC module can achieve high-speed switching while reducing the loss, which helps to reduce the battery consumption, improve the cruising range, and solve the pain points of new energy vehicles.
Smaller package size. SiC devices have smaller energy losses and are capable of providing higher current densities. At the same power level, the SiC power module is significantly smaller than the silicon-based module, helping to increase the power density of the system.
Implement high-frequency switching. The electron saturation drift rate of SiC material is 2 times that of Si, which helps to increase the operating frequency of the device; the characteristics of the high critical breakdown electric field enable it to bring MOSFETs into the high voltage field, overcome the tail current problem of IGBTs in the switching process, reduce switching losses and vehicle energy consumption, and reduce the use of passive devices such as capacitors and inductors, thereby reducing system volume and weight.
High temperature resistance, strong heat dissipation ability. SiC's band gap width and thermal conductivity are about 3 times that of Si, which can withstand higher temperatures, and high thermal conductivity will also bring about an increase in power density and easier release of heat, and cooling components can be miniaturized, which is conducive to the miniaturization and lightweight of the system. (Source: Future Think Tank)
2, silicon carbide devices to calculate the demand: trams and industry
SiC device uses the third generation of semiconductor material silicon carbide as the substrate, compared with the same specifications of silicon-based devices, SiC device efficiency and temperature resistance is higher, can significantly reduce energy consumption, improve power density, reduce the volume, is the next generation of new energy vehicle motor drive control system ideal devices, can further improve the new energy vehicle mileage, 100 km acceleration capacity and maximum speed. Tesla's Model3 main drive inverter uses 24 SiC MOSFETs, each module has 2 SiC bare crystals (Die) a total of 48 SiC MOSFETs, the total cost is about 5000 yuan. BYD Han rear-drive three-phase bridge 6-axle arms use 30 SiC MOS modules, with a total cost of 7,000 yuan. Among the new models released in 2021, WEIO ET, Xiaopeng's G9, GAC Aeon's LX and Great Wall's Mecha Dragon all use the 800v platform, from 400V to 800V, a system uses 30-50 SiC chips, and the chip volume of the 2 drive systems will grow more.
Components involved in power semiconductor applications in the system architecture of new energy vehicles include: motor drive systems, vehicle charging systems (OBC), power conversion systems (on-board DC/DC) and non-vehicle charging piles. SiC power devices are used in main inverters in motor drive systems, which can significantly reduce the volume, weight and cost of electrical and electronic systems and improve power density. Wolfspeed expects the in-vehicle SiC market size to increase from $1.6 billion in 2022 to $4.6 billion in 2026.
In addition to the field of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic power generation, rail transit, smart grids and RF devices can use SiC devices to replace IGBT as electronic control devices. Using silicon carbide MOSFET or silicon carbide MOSFET combined with silicon carbide SBD power module photovoltaic inverter, the conversion efficiency can be increased from 96% to more than 99%, energy loss is reduced by more than 50%, equipment cycle life is increased by 50 times, it is expected that in the string and centralized photovoltaic inverters, silicon carbide products are expected to gradually replace silicon-based devices. The application of silicon carbide devices to rail transit traction converters can greatly exert the characteristics of high temperature, high frequency and low loss of silicon carbide devices, and improve the efficiency of traction converter devices. The industrial SiC device market size is expected to increase from $600 million to $1.4 billion by 2022.
3. Power semiconductor manufacturers have released silicon carbide products
BYD: BYD Han pure electric high-performance all-wheel drive version released by BYD in 2020 became the first model in China to adopt self-developed SiC modules, with a doubling of power density, and its SiC chips were purchased from foreign manufacturers. BYD Semiconductor SiC Power Module is a three-phase full-bridge topology potting full-silicon carbide power module, mainly used in new energy vehicle motor drive controller, is the world's first, the only SiC three-phase full-bridge module in China to achieve large-scale loading in motor drive controllers. According to the company's announcement, the sales revenue of SiC modules in 2020 is 142 million yuan, calculated according to the unit price of 1577 yuan, it is expected to sell 90,000 silicon carbide modules in 2020, and the sales revenue in the first half of 2021 will reach 114 million yuan, calculated according to the unit price of 1069 yuan, the sales of silicon carbide modules in the first half of 2021 will be 100,000, and the annual sales volume is expected to exceed 200,000.
CR Micro: China Resources Micro, a leading local power semiconductor manufacturer, released Its SiC diode products in July 2020 and will achieve small batch supply in 2021. On December 17, 2021, the company announced the launch of a new 1200V SiC MOSFET, using Wolf Speed's substrate to achieve the localization of silicon carbide chips. China Resources Micro independently developed and mass-produced new SiC MOS single tube, with good grid oxygen reliability, high current density, high switching speed, industrial grade reliability, Ron with temperature change and other advantages, mainly used in new energy vehicles OBC, charging piles, industrial power, photovoltaic inverter, wind power generation and other fields.
Times Electric: From rail traffic and grid high voltage IGBT to new energy vehicle power semiconductor Times Electric released the first domestic high-power electric drive product based on independent silicon carbide chip - C- Power 220s at the end of 2021. The company's SiC MOSFET chip has been developed in 4 generations, starting from the third generation for automotive-grade applications, the 1200V/600A SiC MOSFET module S3 that has been launched can meet the needs of 120KW ~ 200KW power level electric drive, under the condition of 190KW high output power, the total loss of inverter can be reduced by 54% compared with silicon-based IGBT, and the inverter efficiency is increased from 97.% to 98.77%.
(2) The throat of the silicon carbide industry chain: the substrate
1. Overview of the substrate industry: classification, industrial chain links, value distribution
SiC substrates are made of high-purity toner and high-purity silicon powder, which are synthesized by specific reactions at high temperatures above 2,000°C. Under the special temperature field, the mature physical gas transfer method (PVT method) is used to grow different sizes of silicon carbide crystal ingots, and the silicon carbide substrate is produced through multiple processing processes. According to the application of the downstream terminal can be divided into two categories of conductive type and semi-insulated type, conductive silicon carbide substrate is mainly used in the manufacture of power devices, and the traditional silicon power device production process is different, silicon carbide power device can not be directly made on the silicon carbide substrate, the need to grow on the conductive type of silicon epitaxial layer to obtain silicon carbide epitaxial sheet, and on the epitaxial layer to manufacture various types of power devices. Semi-insulated silicon carbide substrates are mainly used in the manufacture of gallium nitride radio frequency devices. By growing the gallium nitride epitaxial layer on a semi-insulated silicon carbide substrate, the silicon carbide-based gallium nitride epitaxial sheet is prepared, which can further be made into gallium nitride RF devices.
In semiconductor applications, SiC is mainly used in the manufacture of power electronic devices. From the perspective of the sequence of SiC device manufacturing processes, the manufacturing cost of SiC devices, SiC substrate cost accounts for 50%, SiC epitaxial cost accounts for 25%, these two processes are an important part of SiC devices. According to the prospectus disclosed by Leon Micro and Shanghai Silicon Industry, an 8-inch silicon epitaxial wafer is about 250 yuan, a 12-inch silicon epitaxial wafer is about 300-400 yuan, and the 6-inch conductive SiC substrate and 4-inch semi-insulated SiC substrate disclosed by Tianke Heda and Tianyue Advanced are 3000 yuan and 8000-9000 yuan respectively, and the price of the 6-inch conductive SiC substrate of the global leader Wolfspeed is as high as 6000 yuan, and if the epitaxial processing is completed, it is estimated to reach about 8000 yuan.
One of the reasons for the high cost of SiC devices is the difficulty of siC substrate manufacturing, and the traditional monocrystalline silicon is prepared by the lifting method, and the current large-scale growth of SiC single crystal mainly uses physical gas phase transport (PVT) or seed crystal sublimation method. This brings two difficulties in SiC crystal preparation:
1. The growth conditions are harsh and need to be carried out at high temperatures. In general, the SiC gas phase grows at temperatures above 2300°C and pressures at 350MPa, while silicon only needs about 1600°C. High temperatures place extremely high demands on equipment and process control, and the production process is almost difficult to observe in black box operations. A slight failure in temperature and pressure control can lead to the failure of a product that has been grown for several days.
2, slow growth rate. The PVT method grows SiC slowly, growing about 2 cm in 7 days. The silicon rod can pull out an 8-inch silicon rod about 2m long in 2-3 days.
In addition, SiC device manufacturing must go through the epitaxial step, and the epitaxial quality has a great impact on device performance. SiC base devices and traditional silicon devices are different, the quality and surface characteristics of the SiC substrate can not meet the requirements of direct manufacturing devices, so in the manufacture of high-power and high-voltage high-frequency devices, can not be directly on the SiC substrate to make devices, but must be deposited on the single crystal substrate an additional layer of high-quality epitaxial materials, and on the epitaxial layer to manufacture various types of devices, the current efficiency is relatively low. In addition, the gas homogeneous epitaxy of SiC is generally carried out at high temperatures above 1500 °C. Due to the problem of sublimation, the temperature can not be too high, generally can not exceed 1800 °C, so the growth rate is low.
2. Market pattern
According to Yole's statistics, CREE accounted for 62% of the conductive silicon carbide substrate market in 2018, the market share of THE US semiconductor material manufacturer II.-VI. was 16%, and the domestic manufacturers Tianke Heda and Shandong Tianyue accounted for only 1.7% and 0.5%. In the semi-insulated substrate market, Wolf speed's market share fell to 32% from 41% in 2019, and the market share of II.-VI. semiconductors increased from 27% in 2019 to 35%, and the two leaders together accounted for nearly 70% of the market. Shandong Tianyue is mainly based on semi-insulated substrate products, with a market share of 30% in 2020, and the company's prospectus discloses that in 2020, the company's semi-insulated substrate revenue of 347 million yuan is estimated, and the global semi-insulated silicon carbide market size is only 1.2 billion yuan. Wolf-Speed revenue of $471 million in 2020, excluding revenue from $59 million for semi-insulated substrates, is expected to be approximately $412 million for conductive silicon carbide substrates, assuming a Market Share of Wolfspeed approaching 50% in 2020, with a combined market size of approximately $824 million for conductive silicon carbide substrates. Overall, the global silicon carbide substrate market will be about $1 billion in 2020, Wolfspeed revenue will increase by 12% in 2021, and it is expected that the global sales scale of silicon carbide substrates will increase to $1.13 billion in 2021.
In the power semiconductor chip market, especially the competition in the IGBT chip market, it has extended from chip design to midstream manufacturing and downstream module packaging, but entering the era of silicon carbide, we believe that the competition of silicon carbide power semiconductors has further expanded from chip design, midstream manufacturing and downstream packaging to the upstream substrate and epitaxial link of the industrial chain. International manufacturers have long realized that the key to the dispute over silicon carbide is the control of substrate resources, as early as 2009, Japan Rohm achieved a substantial breakthrough in SiC device research and development through the acquisition of SiCrystal, a German supplier of SiC substrates and epitaxial wafers. In 2018, Infineon acquired Siltectra, a German cutting company in the field of silicon carbide wafer cutting, and acquired a material cutting technology called "Cold Split", which enables high-quality and low-cost processing of wafers and thinning of wafers, especially for silicon carbide, which has obvious cutting advantages of ultra-high hardness materials.
In December 2019, ST purchased Norstel AB, a Swedish manufacturer of SiC substrates and epitaxial wafers, for US$137.5 million in cash, acquiring manufacturing capabilities for 6-inch SiC substrates and epitaxial wafers. On November 1, 2021, ON Semiconductor announced a $415 million acquisition of U.S. silicon carbide producer GTAT, which could help ON Reduce Its Dependence on Raw Materials for Wolfspeed through an epitaxial acquisition of substrate assets. Today, the power semiconductor factory basically for the substrate resources of the war has come to an end, the domestic enterprises only Sanan Optoelectronics in this substrate resources battle has won, has transferred part of the Norstel AB patents to the country, only to complete the first domestic Changsha 6-inch IDM production line from the substrate, epitaxy to the device.
(3) Domestic substrate industry chain carding
1. Comparison of domestic substrate manufacturers
The main manufacturers of domestic supply of silicon carbide substrates include Shandong Tianyue, Tianke Heda, Sanan Optoelectronics, Shanxi Shuoke and Hebei Tongguang five, and the top three in the domestic market sales scale are Shandong Tianyue, Shanxi Shuoke and Tianke Heda. According to public information, the top three sales of silicon carbide substrates are 350 million (2020), about 300 million (2020) and 155 million (2019). Compared with the next five substrate production capacity planning, the largest manufacturer in 2025 is Hebei Tongguang, which is expected to have a monthly production capacity of 58,300 pieces, an annual production capacity of 700,000 pieces, and an output value of 4.5-6 billion yuan after full production. In second place is Sanan Optoelectronics, Xiamen San'an and Hunan San'an will reach a combined silicon carbide substrate production capacity of 42,000 pieces/month in 2025, followed by Shandong Tianyue's monthly silicon carbide substrate production capacity of 35,000 pieces by the end of 2025, of which 25,000 pieces are conductive substrates, accounting for 71.4% of the company's total production capacity.
Fourth, the power semiconductor industry key companies analysis
Wingtech Technology:
Wingtech Technology acquired Nexperia, a global leader in power semiconductor discrete devices, through the implementation of a major asset restructuring in 2018, and completed the delivery of the equity of Nexperia Semiconductor at the end of 2019, and the company's business cut from the original smart phone ODM to the power semiconductor track. In 2020, the semi-conductor business achieved revenue of 9.89 billion yuan, overseas factories were greatly affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year, and the third quarter of the second half began to enter recovery growth with the new demand brought by home isolation and online office. Benefiting from the strong demand for electric vehicles, PCs and servers, the demand for power semiconductors continues to grow in 2021, but the global epidemic has seriously insufficient the supply of overseas manufacturers, and the company's products have implemented batch price increases since the beginning of the year, with a price increase of more than 10% in the first quarter. As of the first half of 2021, the gross profit margin of the company's semiconductor products has increased significantly from 27.2% in 2020 to 35.1%, and it is expected that the company's power semiconductor business revenue is expected to achieve more than 50% growth of more than 15.2 billion yuan in 2021, and the net profit will reach 2.8 billion, becoming the first enterprise in the scale of power semiconductor revenue in china.
1, MOS product structure optimization, from low voltage to high voltage upgrade: At present, the company's power semiconductor products are mainly 100V and below low-voltage discrete devices, such as small signal discrete devices, power discrete devices, ESD protection devices, and analog and logic ICs and other products, of which 45% of the revenue comes from the automotive field, mobile and wearable devices account for 22%, and the industrial field accounts for 22%. Under the continuous promotion of the "double carbon" policy, the demand for power semiconductors in the field of electric vehicles and new energy power generation has exploded, especially the demand for medium and high voltage products such as SGT-MOSFET and SJ-MOSFET has increased significantly, and the company has also launched more than 200V medium and high voltage Mosfet products, and it is expected that the company's product structure is expected to be further optimized in the future.
2. Merger and acquisition of Newport, the IGBT market and SiC new track: In the first half of 2021, Nexperia acquired Newport, a WAfer manufacturer in the United Kingdom, and further expanded the company's low-voltage power semiconductor product line with MOSFETs and diodes and transistors to medium and high voltage IGBT chips. According to the official website of Newport, the current monthly production capacity of Newport Wafer Fab is 32,000 pieces of 8-inch wafers, and the IGBT capacity is 1,000 pieces/month, and the future is expected to further expand the IGBT production capacity to 4,000 pieces/month. IGBT is the most core power device for electric vehicle electric drive inverter and photovoltaic inverter, and SiC SBD and SiC MOSFET with ultra-low conduction impedance in the field of electric vehicles and photovoltaic power generation application penetration is also gradually increasing, the company's own research and development of SiC diode products have been launched, SiC MOSFET products are expected to be launched in 2023.
3. The gradual release of Lingang production capacity to build a long-term growth driver: In order to ensure the long-term growth potential of the company's semiconductor business and seize the market demand for automotive semiconductors, the company invested 12 billion yuan in Shanghai Lingang to build a 12-inch fab with an annual production capacity of 600,000 pieces, and will add nearly 600 million US dollars in output value after full production. The company plans to promote the output value of Nexperia semiconductor to exceed 10 billion US dollars in 10 years, further strengthen the global competitiveness of Nexperia, and it is expected that the company's next 30% compound growth rate will provide a guarantee for long-term growth. (Source: Future Think Tank)
Times Electric:
Times Electric landed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in early September 2021, the main business according to the downstream industry can be divided into rail transit, new energy vehicles and industry three major sectors, of which rail transit equipment products are mainly locomotives, EMUs and urban rail traction converter system, can be understood as "high-speed rail electric drive system", by converting the grid voltage into a frequency controllable three-phase AC electric drive motor to achieve the function of traction train operation. With the slowdown in the growth rate of domestic rail transit investment, the company has entered the industrial fields such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic and wind power with the system integration capabilities accumulated in the field of rail transit and the research and development capabilities of core power semiconductor devices IGBT. At present, the company can provide new energy vehicles such as electric drive systems and photovoltaic inverters and wind power converters on the one hand, and on the other hand, the company has expanded from high-voltage IGBT products applied to rail transit and power grids to 650V and 750V medium and high voltage IGBT modules required for electric vehicle inverters, realizing a new growth stage from rail transit to new energy.
1. The demand for new infrastructure drives growth, and the rail transit business bottoms out: In the first three quarters of this year, affected by the reduction of railway equipment investment of the State Railway Group and the impact of the new crown epidemic, the company's rail transit business recorded revenue of 6.834 billion yuan, down 17.75% year-on-year, and achieved a net profit attributable to the mother of 1.202 billion yuan, down nearly 20% year-on-year. In 2022, China will enter the second year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the national economy will be stable, and high-speed rail and subway will be the vanguard of new infrastructure, especially the investment in the rail transport field in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will accelerate, which is expected to drive the company's rail transport equipment business to achieve stabilization and recovery.
2, new energy has become the company's second growth curve, power semiconductors shine: the company is the first domestic breakthrough A-class model IGBT module suppliers, has now entered the ideal, Xiaopeng, GAC, Dongfeng and FAW and other new car manufacturing forces and central enterprises OEM supply chain. At present, the company has two 8-inch IGBT production lines, one of which has a production capacity of 10,000 pieces / month, mainly supplying IGBT chips in the field of rail transit, power grid and new energy vehicles, and the second phase of production capacity has been put into operation at the end of 2021, the production capacity has doubled to 20,000 pieces / month, and the new production capacity is mainly for new energy fields such as automobiles and photovoltaics. In addition, the IGBT produced by the company also has a demand for new energy vehicles Electric drive system, photovoltaic inverter and wind power converter, and the current supporting capacity of electric drive reaches 400,000 sets / year. In the face of insufficient supply of IGBT from overseas manufacturers and surging demand in the domestic electric vehicle and photovoltaic fields, the self-built IDM production capacity will help the company become the leader in the localization of IGBT chips.
3, silicon carbide electric drive new platform released, for long-term growth momentum: at the end of 2021, the company released the first domestic based silicon carbide high-power electric drive product - C- Power 220s, after the company launched a 1200V SiC MOSFET module S3, can meet the 120KW-200KW power level electric drive demand, the use of pinfin direct water cooling, improve heat dissipation efficiency, under high output power conditions, SiC device loss than IGBT 54%. At present, the company has built a pilot line with an annual production capacity of 10,000 SiC power devices, and is expected to achieve an output value of about 200 million yuan at full production, while the company is also actively planning a new silicon carbide production line, and it is expected that in the future, the company's silicon carbide module will take the lead in introducing vehicle-level customers to achieve a comprehensive replacement for foreign manufacturers again, providing momentum for the company's long-term growth.
Tianyue Advanced:
Tianyue Advanced is a leading manufacturer of silicon carbide substrates in China, according to the prospectus, the company's SiC substrate products are mainly 4-inch semi-insulated substrates, accounting for more than 99% of the main business SiC substrate revenue, and the volume of conductive silicon carbide substrates is still very small. Semi-insulated SiC substrate is mainly used in the manufacture of gallium nitride RF devices, by growing gallium nitride epitaxial layer on a semi-insulated silicon carbide substrate, the preparation of silicon carbide-based gallium nitride epitaxial sheet, can be further prepared into gallium nitride radio frequency devices. Conductive silicon carbide substrate is mainly used in the manufacture of power devices, it is necessary to grow the silicon carbide epitaxial layer on the conductive substrate to obtain a silicon carbide epitaxial sheet, and manufacture various types of power devices on the epitaxial layer.
Referring to the company's revenue in the first three quarters of 2021, it is estimated that the company's annual revenue in 2021 will exceed 500 million yuan, an increase of 21% year-on-year, and the large increase in revenue will mainly come from the promotion of sales, and the unit price of products will decline slightly in 2021. The company's production and sales ratio will increase by about 10 percentage points from 81.8% in 2020 to 92.1% in 2021, and it is expected that the annual SiC substrate shipments will reach 51,800 pieces, an increase of 33% year-on-year. From the analysis of product prices, it can be found that the price of insulation substrates has been in a downward trend in the past three years, and the price of insulation substrates has dropped by about 11% and 15% in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Compared with the price of the 4-inch conductive substrate disclosed in the prospectus of Tianke Heda, the price of the conductive substrate is only 1/3 of the semi-insulated substrate, and the price fluctuation is also relatively large, and there is a rise of more than 30% in 2020 after the decline in 2019.
1, the company has a global competitive advantage in the field of semi-insulation: According to Yole's statistics, the company's semi-insulated SiC substrate sales scale in 2020 has a market share of 30% in the global field, an increase of about 8 percentage points compared with 2019. The top two Wolf Speed and II.-VI. have market share of 32% and 35% in 2020, respectively, which can be seen that the company's proportion in the field of semi-insulated substrates is almost the same as that of foreign leaders. Silicon carbide-based gallium nitride RF devices have good thermal conductivity, high frequency, high power and other advantages, is by far the most ideal microwave RF device, so it has become the core microwave RF device of 4G/5G mobile communication system, a new generation of active phased array radar and other systems. Yole expects gaN devices to replace most of the silicon-based LDMOS share by 2025, accounting for approximately 50% of the RF device market and reaching $2 billion in sales, during which CAGR reaches 18%, and demand for semi-insulated silicon carbide substrates is expected to continue to grow as a result.
2, investment of 2.5 billion to expand the production of conductive substrates, open up a new growth space: in the semi-insulated substrate company has become a global leader, the company's IPO investment project is to invest 2.5 billion yuan in Lingang to build a new silicon carbide substrate factory, is expected to be put into production in Q3 2022, the first phase of production after the 6-inch conductive SiC substrate production capacity will reach 300,000 pieces / year, according to the current price of 5000 yuan / piece, it is expected that the output value of the first phase of the Lingang factory will reach 1.5 billion yuan, for The company's continued growth in the coming years provides capacity guarantees. Silicon carbide power devices are the perfect alternative material for IGBT and SJ-MOS in the field of medium and high voltage, wolfspeed predicts that the market size of silicon carbide power devices will grow from $2.2 billion in 2022 to $6 billion in 2026, cagring 29%, if completely replace the power semiconductor market accounted for 80% of the high voltage power devices above 400V, the long-term replacement space is more than $40 billion, so in carbonization The substrate with the greatest value in the silicon power device industry chain will be the most beneficial link.