To put the conclusion first, the author believes that the greater influence of the two on the dynasty is the change of the Ming Dynasty's civil fort. The reason is simple: although the humiliation of Jingkang led to the capture of the Second Emperor, the way the Song Dynasty paid tribute to the northern regime in the decline of force did not change. That is to say, although the Southern Song Dynasty was peaceful, the Guozuo was not broken, and the poor and weak were all paid for protection with money (but one was handed over to the Liao state and one to the Jin state). The change of Tumu fort is different from the turning point of Daming's transformation from prosperity to decline, and it is also the change of Daming's situation towards Mongolian companies. Many people think that the jingkang change led to the fall of the northern song dynasty as a reason for great influence, but this is actually unreasonable. The judgment of the great transformation of the dynasty is the ultimate criterion for determining the size of the influence.
Although the shame of Jingkang was tragic, its occurrence did not have much decisive effect on the territorial changes of the Southern and Northern Song Dynasties; so the impact of the shame of Jingkang on the Song Dynasty was actually not so great, although everyone was angry about the occurrence of the shame of Jingkang, but according to the comparison of the combat strength of the two countries at that time, the Northern Song Dynasty was only beaten by the Jin Dynasty. The Northern Song Dynasty and the Liao Dynasty were actually decaying, and the competition between them was only to see who was more decaying. Judging from the results of tong's northern expedition, it is obvious that the Northern Song Dynasty is more decaying and declining. It's just that the Liao State is even more unlucky to have such a fierce neighbor as the Jin State, but when the Liao State fell, the neighbor of the Jin State came to the Northern Song Dynasty. It was a pipe dream to expect the barbaric Jurchens not to be moved in the face of the rich Northern Song Dynasty, so even without the change of Jing Kang, the Song court would inevitably move south.
Although in the last years of the Northern Song Dynasty, there was a long right side of the Long Right Side that returned to the light, but the Song Dynasty itself was particularly depleted. Moreover, the rulers of the Northern Song Dynasty were short-sighted, and only saw the fierceness of the Liao State and did not see the Jin State as the heart of the heart. Compared with the Jin Dynasty, the increasingly decaying Liao State was nothing more than a scabies disease for the Song Dynasty, but the strange Song Dynasty actually joined forces with jin to destroy the Liao without the slightest thought of dying and having a cold tooth. Such a rich and weak Northern Song Dynasty was thus exposed to the Jin State after the destruction of the Liao, how could the Jin State not be moved? The front door drives the tiger, and the back door enters the wolf; the Northern Song Dynasty certainly cannot resist the enemy outside the national gate, so the Song Dynasty's southward migration has become inevitable. Even without the jingkang change, the Song Dynasty would still live like the Southern Song Dynasty according to the inertia of history.
The change of Tumu Fort made the Ming Dynasty hurt its bones and the elite were swept away; it not only made the Ming Dynasty and the Mongol offensive and defensive posture easier, but also became a turning point in the Ming Empire's transformation from prosperity to decline. If we look at the impact of the change of Tumu Fort on the Ming Dynasty, it can be shown that the Empire did not live a kind of life at all before and after the change of Tumu Fort. Before Tumu Fort, the Ming Dynasty was almost undefeated in foreign conquests, and with the blessing of self-confidence, the Ming Empire was indeed the first Empire in the East at that time. The tangtang China, the Yangyang Shangbang, the worship of all nations; Yongle Tongbao circulated in Asian countries for hundreds of years, which can be called the "dollar" of the Middle Ages. The mongols also retained a crushing posture, but the situation changed greatly after the change of Tumu Fort. Emperor Yingzong was captured, and hundreds of thousands of elite and famous generals such as Zhang Fu were swept away in a very humiliating manner; although Empress Sun and Yu Qian were not moved to establish Zhu Qiyu as emperor and won the defense of Beijing, the offensive and defensive posture of Mingmeng changed hands from then on. Since then, the Nine Sides of Daming have been repeatedly attacked and have to be passively defended. Although the three battalions were rebuilt, the Divine Machine Battalion no longer had a soul. Later, in the face of the Eight Banners, the Ming Dynasty did not have the courage and development of firearms in the north, all because of the change of Tumu Fort.
The Ming Empire still had an active national defense policy and a broad overall vision during the time of Zhu Yuanzhang and Zhu Di, so even if it did not have the ability to completely conquer the Mongol departments, it would adopt a strategy of supporting the weak and suppressing the strong. Therefore, during the Zhu Di era, he personally conquered Mongolia many times, and the Tatar department Arutai and the Wara tribe Mahamu were once the targets of conquest. In short, one policy is to maintain the balance of power in mongolia to prevent one family from becoming bigger. However, after the tumubao change, the Ming Dynasty could no longer attack mongolia as chengzu did, and the territory of the Ming Dynasty gradually shrank into a reduced version of the two capitals and thirteen provinces. In addition to the younger brother of Korea, which is valued, many other vassal states have been lost. Therefore, the influence of the change of Tumu fort on the Ming Dynasty is far greater than the influence of the change of Jing Kang on the Song Dynasty.