"If history can be used as a reference, not many people will survive the next recession," is Musk's recent response to the 5-year survival rate of "unicorn" companies.
His instincts about a recession are nonsense or appalling; but his judgment of unicorn companies is pretty poor.
In the middle of the night on the last day of the quarter, and a few hours after the start of the new quarter, Tesla began counting quarterly deliveries. Then on Jan. 2, Wall Street and the auto industry waited for 308,600 vehicles, a figure that exceeded expectations.
Yes, another record high. The company has sold more than a million units (930,000 units) in recent years. In the year of chip shortage and tight supply chain, it can be described as thriving.
In China, during the New Year's Day holiday, "Wei Xiaoli" also can't wait to announce the good news, and in December, the delivery volume of Xiaopeng Automobile reached a record high of 16,000 vehicles, the ideal 14,087 vehicles, weilai 10,487 vehicles, and Nezha 10,127 vehicles.
But there is no need to rush to sing praises, and the head companies of new cars do grab a little place for themselves in the jianghu. Don't forget that it's more of a new car at the waist and tail, still struggling with life and death.
According to the "2021 Global Unicorn List" released by the Hurun Research Institute a few years ago, the number of Chinese new energy automobile companies on the list has decreased from 11 last year to 7. Behind the data changes, the fate of the "unicorns" is a turning point, and it also reveals the cruelty of the new car track. Not to mention that there are still many who are not always qualified to be on the list.
2021 listed companies and valuations: Extreme Kr (58 billion), WM Motor (38 billion), United Automobile (32 billion), PoleStar Electric (32 billion), zero-run cars (26 billion), AIWAYS (13 billion), Kaiwo Automobile (10 billion),
2020 Listed Companies and Valuations: Weima (30 billion), Xiaopeng Motors (30 billion), Chehejia (20 billion), Singularity Motors (20 billion), Ranger Cars (20 billion), Byton Motors (14 billion), AIWAYS (10 billion), Kaiwo Automobile (10 billion), Bojun Automobile (7 billion), Hezhong Automobile (7 billion), Zero-run cars (7 billion)
It can be seen that in 2021, there are 5 companies that have fallen, and 5 others are still struggling, and only 2 car companies have successfully listed. In addition, compared with last year, this year only two new car companies have been added, Extreme Kr and Pole Star Electric, both of which are new brands backed by traditional car companies, and Extreme Krypton has a valuation of 58 billion yuan far exceeding other new car-making forces.
2 ashore, still burning money
He Xiaopeng once said that the window period for new cars will close around 2020, and it is difficult to succeed too early in time. Judging from the list released by the Hurun Research Institute this year, it is almost a slur.
The two original unicorn new energy vehicle companies that were successfully listed this year are Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile. Looking back at the listing of Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile, in addition to the right time and sufficient capital, their own clear playing style is also very important.
Xiao Peng, human design
At present, the stock market of Xiaopeng Mei is worth $39 billion, and the Hong Kong stock market is higher.
"Wooden Sister" Ark investment has been reducing tesla holdings and increasing its holdings in Xiaopeng Motors for a while. And Xiaopeng Automobile is indeed similar to Tesla in Wei Xiaolizhong style. From the beginning, it has taken a similar development route to Tesla, that is, focusing on the research and development of technology, especially self-driving technology.
In the past year, for Xiaopeng, in addition to its successful listing in Hong Kong, there are three highlight moments. On October 24, Xiaopeng Technology Day announced the sixth generation of flying cars and announced mass production in 2024, and the target price should be controlled within 1 million. On November 18, Xiaopeng changed the label and integrated the concept of flight into the logo. He Xiaopeng very bluntly expressed his intention to transform into a technology company, "Today it is difficult to define the Xiaopeng brand with an automobile company."
If the concept of flight and brand renewal are relatively retreats, Xiaopeng also has actual achievements. In 2021, Xiaopeng Automobile sold 98,155 vehicles, winning the first place in Wei Xiaoli and even China's new car construction corps.
Although it is temporarily ahead, for the 7-year-old Xiaopeng Automobile, it still has to face the test of low unit price and gross profit, in short, even if the new car on the shore is still burning money.
Ideal, this time and another time
In 2021, in terms of sales, ideal ONE almost caught up with Weilai, which did not have new car deliveries on its own. The main reason for the ideal car to stand out is that it has stepped on the category and route.
Li Xiang also did not hesitate to use sales data to disclose Diss and recalled Volkswagen China CEO Feng Sihan, who once said that "the increase in range is the 'worst solution'". The ideal ONE single model will be insured in November, surpassing the sum of the five medium and large SUVs sold by Volkswagen. Last year, Li Xiang also exploded for the extended range route, breaking his mouth and scolding technicians with different opinions. This year's program increase is suddenly fragrant.
Ideal Car finds a new market segment in the process of the transformation of the automotive industry in the way of "wiping the edge ball" and chooses a new track with almost no competitors.
Sales are good, but it does not prevent Li from wanting to scold again this year. This year it's Mercury Gate. However, in the mercury gate many times publicly shouted, brushed the ideal of "Geng zhi" people, in the face of the protests of the old car owners, it seems that instead of changing the person.
At the end of May, Ideal Auto launched the ideal ONE's redesigned model, the new model is far more cost-effective than the old model, and the old car can not be ADAS upgrade, so that the owner of the car that was "unknowingly" booked a week ago is very dissatisfied. Some people say that ideals have abandoned old users for their own development.
In general, this year's ideal Hong Kong stock listed, but also hit a new high in market value, the current U.S. stock market value of 30 billion US dollars, the only car sales are also competitive. However, in 2021, the ideal of only one car has not achieved quarterly profitability, and it is still burning money. The planned all-electric model was also considered too late by reviews.
5 families struggle, sadness and joy are different
Weima fell behind
Weima, which once competed with "Wei Xiaoli" for the top three, is still struggling on the road to listing. Weima Automobile, which was originally closely following the "top three", was also squeezed to the sixth place by Nezha and Zero Run.
According to the data, the delivery volume of WM Motors in December this year was 5062 vehicles, but in the same period, the monthly delivery volume of "Xiao Liwei" and Nezha Automobile has exceeded 10,000 vehicles, and it is obvious that WM Motors has fallen behind.
WM Motors, which originally planned to land on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in the first half of this year, lost its grip on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board due to tighter approvals. Since then, it has been rumored that WM Motors will seek to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and in October this year, WM Motors received a US$300 million D1 round of financing led by PCCW Limited and Shun Tak Group Co., Ltd. In addition to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, it is rumored that WM Motors is also seeking the possibility of overseas listing.
Up to now, WM Motors has completed the D1 round and D2 round of financing this year, becoming the new car-making force with the largest amount of US dollar private financing this year. In the case of continuous increase in investment institutions, the valuation of WM Motors has risen from 30 billion yuan last year to 38 billion, ranking second in the valuation among the existing new energy vehicle unicorns.
WM Auto can successfully go public, perhaps 2022 has reached the time of the door.
Nezha hugged his thigh
In addition to WM Motors, the valuations of United Automobile (32 billion), Zero-run Automobile (26 billion) and Aiways Automobile (13 billion) this year have risen significantly compared with last year. Among them, the valuation of United Automobile has risen the most.
Last year,the valuation of United Automobile was 7 billion, and this year it has risen to 32 billion, more than 3 times. Behind the valuation growth are 360 and Zhou Hongyi's thighs.
In the first half of this year, United Automobile launched a Series D financing, with 360 leading the investment.
Since 360 founder Zhou Hongyi appeared at the Nezha Auto Booth at the Shanghai Auto Show in April this year, the possibility of 360 cooperating with Nezha has gradually been heated up.
According to the financing information of Tianyancha, on October 27, United Automobile completed the D1 round of financing, with a transaction amount of 4 billion. Qihoo 360 led the investment, and CCB International, CITIC Securities Investment, Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, Jifu Venture Capital and so on followed.
Some people express this income as the deep binding of The United (Nezha) and 360. However, there are also views that interpret the cooperation between the two as follows: the wide casting of the net of 360 and the retreat of Nezha.
On November 9, United Automobile ushered in the D2 round of strategic investment, the investor is Ningde Times, although the transaction amount is not disclosed, in the eyes of the outside world is also a big tree. So far, in 7 years, United Has gone through 8 rounds of financing, with a total financing amount of more than 12 billion yuan.
Or blessed by the progress of the capital market, the market performance of Nezha Automobile has seen a momentum. In 2021, Nezha delivered 69,700 vehicles year-on-year by 362% year-on-year. In November, the official poster reads " Firmly in the first camp of the new car-making forces " .
Some analysts said that Nezha's models Nezha U and Nezha V aim at the low-end market is the reason for the rapid increase in sales of Nezha's automobiles, after all, there are not many competitors in the market segment with a price of about 100,000. In addition, the B-end market has played a significant role in increasing sales of Nezha Automobile in a short period of time.
In 2021, the debate between Nezha and Xiaopeng about whether 150,000 is the threshold for smart cars has been very popular, and the two companies are also practicing their arguments.
Zero run, Flag runs first
Zero-run cars are valued at $26 billion in 2021, compared to their 7 billion in 2020, with significant data growth.
Everyone's impression of zero running is still stuck on the sales target of "800,000 in 5 years". At that time, as soon as the target came out, the industry was in an uproar. Some people dare to say, no one dares to believe. If it wants to achieve 800,000 sales in 2025, it means that it must nearly 70 times, an annual increase of 135%.
Refer to the past: zero-run 2019 target sales "exceeded 10,000", in fact, the first 6 months did not open; 2020 target 50,000 vehicles, but the actual sale of 11,391 cars.
In 2021, zero-run cars set an annual target of 60,000 units, with an actual cumulative delivery of 43,000 units, which is the closest to the target, and the data is more than three times higher than that of 2020. But there is a world of difference between 800,000 vehicles and 800,000 vehicles.
Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the Automobile Industry Innovation Research Center of North China University of Technology, told Phoenix Auto that zero-run cars are currently mainly in second- and third-tier cities. Among them, T03 is the main contributor to the impulse, this owner hit the sinking market, compared with the same price point (5-7 million yuan) model intelligence level is higher, support L2 level. Its C11 model (B-class car) costs about 150,000 yuan and is also a cost-effective route.
On December 17, Dahua announced that Zhu Jiangming applied to resign as a director of the company's seventh board of directors and a member of the strategy committee under the board of directors for personal reasons. There is speculation that the personnel change is related to the layout of the zero-run Hong Kong listing. Previously, Reuters had reported that Zero-Run was considering an initial public offering (IPO) to raise at least $1 billion.
Or the above news, so that the zero-run car has a certain imagination space.
Aichi, no good news for a long time
At the beginning of 2022, when various new car manufacturers were scrambling to release the delivery data for 2021, AIWAYS auto quietly completed a new round of financing, amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars.
This is good news for Aiways Automobile, but after the completion of this round of financing, the management structure of Aiways Automobile has also undergone some changes, and founder Fu Qiang continues to serve as the president of the company, and the chairman position is replaced by Chen Xuanlin. Can investors outside the circle lead AIWAYS out of the predicament?
The data shows that its deliveries in the first 11 months of 2021 were only 2992 vehicles. This sales volume speaks for itself.
Last year's news about Aichi was more about "going to sea". Some insiders said that the concept of "going to sea" is Aichi's last attempt. As of December 15, 2021, AIWAYS auto exported a total of 2,705 units overseas. From the data point of view, the symbolic significance of going to sea is greater than the actual performance.
Aiways Said that the pure electric coupe SUV AIWAYS U6 will be sold simultaneously in 10 European countries in 2022. However, as for the delivery date of the U6, it was originally scheduled for October 2021. This ticket jump has triggered a lot of speculation.
Aiways received two financings in 2021, namely: 3.0815 million from Didi in January, and in May, CATL led the investment, and in May, Iting Ding Investment, Jinpu Investment and Shenghong Industrial and other companies followed the investment, with a total capital increase of 11.463 million yuan. However, at that time, many media believed that the above investment was symbolic.
Aiways Has completed seven rounds of financing since April 2017, and in addition to the angel round raising a total of 1.2 billion yuan, the other rounds of financing have not disclosed the detailed amount. However, some media reports said that the total financing of AIWAYS Automobile has exceeded 10 billion yuan.
2022 is the "year of life and death" of Aiways Automobile, whether it is to struggle to squeeze into the second echelon, or to hover on the edge of the market until it is eliminated, it may be a matter of a moment.
Whether it can impact the success of the IPO this year also determines whether Aichi can carry the so-called final circle in the camp of new forces.
Bai Yiyang, manager of the research department of CMB Securities International Securities Co., Ltd., said that because there is a difference between the investment logic of the primary market and the secondary market, although the sales volume of Hezhong in a single month exceeds 10,000, zero run and WM only exceed 5,000, and the delivery of Aichi is not optimistic. However, due to the comprehensive consideration of future growth, such as model planning, target market size, product strength, intelligent judgment, and potential business model breakthrough possibilities, the valuation ranking of The Hurun Unicorn List is more objective.
From the analysis of the investor list, among them, SAIC to WM, 360 to Hezhong and other industrial investors, will make other financial investors feel more certain, so it also plays a positive role in its overall valuation.
Kaiwo, Skyworth Cars are just starting out
Mention of Kaiwo Cars, automatically associated with Huang Hongsheng and there are some famous golden sentences.
For example, "New energy vehicles are home appliances with four wheels", such as "In order to make Skyworth a brand that integrates home appliances and cars and has ubiquitous influence, I am willing to struggle for another 30 years".
Huang Hongsheng always seems to like to put his age on the lips, and the "30-year covenant" here is very determined.
In addition to determination, he also has confidence.
On March 26 this year, Kaiwo Automobile spent 28 million yuan to pocket the twelfth class trademark of "Skyworth Brand". So far, Skyworth Automobile has become a smart car brand under Kaiwo Automobile.
A month later, at the Skyworth brand conference, Huang Hongsheng said his "car-making dream" and threw out a grand plan: he has invested 10 billion yuan to establish a dual-use ecology for Skyworth automobile manufacturers; invested another 30 billion yuan in the future to achieve the goal of Skyworth Automobile's top ten global automobile brands; linked to the capital market, with a market value of 300 billion yuan; and strived for 30 years to cultivate outstanding entrepreneurial teams.
In terms of sales expectations of Skyworth Automobile, Huang Hongsheng's vision is set on five years: 2025 annual sales of 250,000 vehicles, 2030 annual sales of 500,000 vehicles.
In July this year, Huang Hongsheng said that Kaiwo Automobile plans to submit an application for listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board at the end of the year, and has completed billions of yuan of financing. Huang Hongsheng never hides his willingness to embrace capital, and does not hide his ambition to eat the new energy cake.
Skyworth Auto has been good news lately.
At present, Skyworth Automobile claims to have exported to 42 countries and regions and obtained EU vehicle certification; in November, Skyworth Automobile delivered 1220 units; Skyworth Automobile Experience Center reached 138.
Skyworth Auto is just starting out, everything is like the momentum before the start, and there is no shortage of bridges in the automotive circle that have a good start.
5 houses fell
Some car companies that have been given high hopes have fallen like meteors.
"Jump ticket king" singularity car
Earlier this year, the news that Singularity Cars had gone from being a veteran of the new car-making force to an executor had been fried. Although the news was alleged to be a oolong: it was due to the lag in the court's information, which caused the singularity car to be "injured by mistake".
Shen Haiyin, founder and CEO of Singularity Motors, was restricted by the court from spending high, but he is no longer a legal person of the executive company (Anhui Singularity Intelligent New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd.), but only serves as the chairman.
However, the lifting of the misunderstanding did not bring more positive effects to the singularity car, and public opinion took the opportunity to take stock of the singularity of the darkness.
Some people say that if the singularity iS6 can be mass-produced as scheduled (originally scheduled to achieve small-scale mass production by the end of 2017), it will be more advantageous than NIO's ES8, but "unfortunately not if".
According to Tianyan, Singularity Auto raised 11 rounds of financing from January 2015 to May 2020, but did not disclose accurate data.
The network legend point car financing exceeded 17 billion, but some insiders said that this news is more of a momentum, and it is likely that it has not gotten so much money at all. Therefore, the vehicle project was shelved, which may be an important reason for the iS6 to jump tickets one after another.
The outside world calls Singularity Car the "jumping ticket king" that can be compared with FF.
"We're trying to live, trying to live by all means," the insiders of Singularity Motors have spoken earnestly.
"PPT car originator" Ranger car
The outside world said that the Ranger car "got up early in the morning and set late". Founded in Shanghai in 2014, it did seize the opportunity earlier than many car companies.
I think back then, Ranger Cars was inspired to do "China's Tesla".
From 2013 to 2018, a total of 6 rounds of financing were completed, with a cumulative amount of nearly 9 billion yuan. From 2018 to 2020, its valuation in the Hurun unicorn list reached 20 billion yuan.
Subsequent news followed: factory shutdowns, dissolution of automotive research institutes, sharp layoffs, and arrears of employee wages.
Some former employees of Ranger Auto have exposed that during their tenure, Ranger did not really develop vehicles, but only did PPT, and took other people's product designs to re-plan after financing money. Inside and outside, it alludes to a scam.
Bo County car about to be liberated
Bo County Motors had a movement a few years ago, it was about bankruptcy reorganization.
At the end of December 2021, Bojun Automobile was filed for bankruptcy reorganization, and the applicant was Nanjing Shengshi Yangzi New Energy Automobile Industry Investment Fund, which was also the sixth largest shareholder of Bojun Automobile, with a shareholding ratio of 5.2%.
This was also a car company that pointed to Tesla. President Huang Ximing once said that because the company masters the core technology of car manufacturing, Bojun Automobile will not choose OEM and will adhere to its own research and development and production. Bojun Automobile was established not long ago, and it is said that it has burned 18.5 billion yuan for the construction of electric vehicle manufacturing bases and expansion projects.
Regarding the capital chain, the official claims that after 6 rounds of financing, the arrival status of funds is unknown.
In 2020, the news about Bo County took a sharp turn for the worse, with difficulties in mass production, wage arrears, and lawsuits. Until the official acknowledgement of the failure of financing, the company went to liquidation, and the car-making circle friends had one more frustrated back.
Some insiders said that in fact, bankruptcy is a relief, "then a bunch of debt can be thrown to investors."
The "loser" out of the circle of byton cars
In terms of filing for bankruptcy, Byton Automobile is the "predecessor".
In November 2021, ding Qingfen, the last sticker, co-CEO and chief affairs officer of Byton, left. Coupled with Foxconn's total retreat, the hope of reviving Byton is becoming increasingly slim.
After Byton Automobile filed for bankruptcy in 2020, there was a paragraph circulating that "burned out 8.4 billion yuan without building a mass production car, and spent 50 million yuan on snacks". No one mentioned the stunning exclusive screen at that time, but the crazy grass outside the door was mentioned many times by some media as an image and miniature.
Although when the various car-making forces entered the game, they all aspired to compare with Tesla. Whether it is the release of the first model in the first year of its establishment, the smooth reach of financing, or the favor of giants including FAW Group and Ningde Times. Byton was once considered the "head" that could go out of the circle, and it was once valued at more than 10 billion.
The money burned out, the mass production car was still in the belly, and the decay of Byton was accompanied by the palace fight.
At the beginning of 2021, there was official news that Byton and its old owner Foxconn reached a cooperation again, the latter injected 200 million yuan to "revitalize" the capital chain, known as "Byton's closest to mass production". However, the constraints of "FAW" have changed the direction of things.
Skyline Cars, heading to the edge
At the Guangzhou Auto Show in November 2021, Skyline officially released two new strategies - new retail and new services, with few followers.
Ever played with a playground centrifuge? People sitting on a horizontal market will be thrown out if they can't harness the angular velocity of coaxial rotation.
Skyline Motors has been involved in the game since 2015, but at the time its name was still Electric Cafe. In 2017, the electric café launched an entry-level electric vehicle with a range of 155km starting from 50,000 yuan, and in 2018 launched an upgraded version with a range of 320 kilometers, and the "Skyrim" ME7 was in the public in 2020. Nothing worked well.
In October of the same year, Tianji Automobile completed the first round of financing of more than 5 billion yuan, and the total financing at that time exceeded 11.5 billion.
However, in the face of the dismal sales reality, the dream of "producing fine products every year, to impact the first camp of intelligent network new energy, and impact IPO" has long been fragmented.
Tianji Automobile sold 163 vehicles in China in November, and its cumulative sales in the first 11 months were 1377 vehicles, an increase of 2% over the same period last year.
From "Mo is not a dark horse" to "how long can it last", only one or two years have passed.
There are recruits backstage
The 2021 Hurun unicorns on the list of "newcomers" are all geely.
Needless to say, Extreme Krypton's origin and mission are self-explanatory.
This summer, Geely did two things one after the other, on the one hand, withdrawing Geely Group's application for the science and technology innovation board, and on the other hand actively operating extreme krypton independence.
Obviously, Extreme Kr has been regarded as the most priority business segment of Geely Group, driving geely's electrification transformation.
Some insiders said that the independence of Extreme Kr is for better freedom and financing convenience in the future, and geely will also bless it with the best resources at this stage.
On December 29, Geely officially said that Extreme Kr will develop exclusive vehicles for the Waymo One driverless fleet and put them into commercial operation in the United States. This is undoubtedly the story content that Extreme Kr adds to the capital market.
There is a saying that if the original polar star had been successful, there would be no more pole krypton.
However, even with Extreme Kr, even if the sales are not good, Polestar still plans to list on the NASDAQ in 2022.
PoleStar has a good life, but because it was born in an intricate era, it was attacked by new forces such as Tesla and Wei Xiaoli, as well as new and old brands such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and Audi, and was in an embarrassing situation.
In addition, there are people in the industry, research and development, layout, decision-making, etc. are too slow, missing the first half of the new energy vehicle power period. At present, the competition for new energy vehicles has become more refined, in addition to the competition of product strength, it is more necessary to consider brand power, channels, services, operations and other aspects. On this basis, Polestar's pricing does not have an advantage.
Although Polaris' sustainable development strategy focuses on a more far-reaching pattern, it still needs to face the reality of "survival in the cracks".
I wonder if the backdoor listing can help PoleStar pull back the situation?
epilogue:
Car building is such a cruel industry, but there is no lack of excitement. There are always people who turn around, and there are always people who are running around. They have all spoken boldly and told a story that "could have been".