The short video era: the key logic of enterprise continuous growth
The advent of the short video era has made the traffic of traditional online channels begin to shift to the field of short video.
The platform has a user scale of 1 billion, a simpler and more efficient way to obtain customers.
Enterprise entry short video live broadcast = standing at the outlet of monetization?
How can companies achieve sustained growth?
January 11, 2022 At 18:00, come to the "Shan RenXing" live broadcast room!
Explore with Dr. Shan Ren the key logic of enterprise growth in the short video era!
Ps: There will also be special events and lucky draw packages in the live broadcast room! Click below to make an appointment!
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Today is the 2108th day that Shan Renxing accompanies you
(Recording can be adjusted by yourself after clicking to play)
01
At the beginning of the new year, many institutions, academics and entrepreneurs have made macroeconomic forecasts for 2022.
Musk, for example, is pessimistic, predicting that the great recession around the world will erupt as early as the spring of 2022.
In contrast, JPMorgan Chase said that the global economy will fully recover in 2022, the epidemic will end, and economic and market conditions will return to normal; Morgan Stanley also predicts that China's economic growth will be higher than expected in 2022.
How to judge these pessimistic and optimistic predictions? Will 2022 be a year of economic recovery or recession?
2
First of all, let's listen to the views of Dr. Shan Ren, chairman of Shan Ren Information Group and special commentator of CCTV Phoenix.
What is the state of the economy in 2022? Depends on the following points.
First, it depends on the assessment of the epidemic. Is it positive, positive, or negative, negative?
At present, the assessment of global economic developments, which is more positive and positive, is related to the effective control of the epidemic in 2022.
My view is more positive.
At present, as the virus continues to escalate, although the infectivity is gradually increasing, the virus will be less and less harmful to the human body. From the latest data and observations, the case fatality rate has dropped significantly.
From the perspective of biological research, nature and viruses coexist for a long time, the virus itself appears in the population from the beginning, the human body will have a strong adaptation, with the passage of time, to the gradual production of antibodies and hunting virus ability of humans to improve, the virus in order to survive, gradually upgraded to the extent that it can compromise with humans.
The new coronavirus, from Alpha to Delta to Aumechjong, gradually escalated, and developed in the direction of coexisting with humans, becoming a virus similar to other cold symptoms.
Judging from the current various data, the population infected with Omikeron is mainly manifested as an infection of the upper respiratory tract. Especially for those who have already been vaccinated, it will not cause serious harm to the lungs.
The global vaccine production capacity has increased significantly, and China's vaccine production capacity in 2022 is 8 billion.
At the end of last year, on December 22, the National Health Commission approved China's first injection of the new crown virus, and with the approval of the competent authorities, this agent will be put into mass production for the treatment of infected people. Just like a cold can be stopped by injections and medicines.
With the spread of vaccines and improved capacity to treat the virus, the economic impact of this wave of COVID-19 outbreaks is expected to be mitigated by mid-2022.
As the virus gradually eases, the world's economic interaction will gradually resume in 2022.
According to this inference, in the first half of 2022, the economy will still be affected by the impact of the virus, especially the fear of the contagiousness of the virus.
Second, the economic judgment of 2022 depends on whether the concerns about the United States are positive or positive. Or is it negative, negative?
Today, in the evaluation of the global economy, the fear of the United States is the most important factor.
Including the world's top economists, but also Musk, their concerns are more about the US economy.
The United States is the world's largest economy, and the inflation caused by the large number of banknotes issued by the United States, the danger of the collapse of the us dollar in the global credit system, and the massive unemployment in the United States due to the spread of the epidemic.
The United States is the world's largest consumer market, and the economic instability of the United States will affect the whole world.
Whether it is the stability of the US dollar or the impact of the large number of US printed currencies on commodity prices, it will affect the entire global production and operation system in 2022.
The United States, which is heavily indebted, full of crises and out of control of the epidemic, is like a time bomb, if the United States does not handle it well, not only will the United States not be able to eat and go, but it will also export the crisis to the outside world, affecting the stability of the global security situation and affecting the global economy even more.
This is the most unstable factor in the global economy in 2022.
Third, the impact of the changes in the epidemic on China's supply chain.
The improvement of the epidemic is a positive impact on the domestic economy, but the overall impact on China's global supply chain is negative.
Once the epidemic improves, all walks of life in China will recover rapidly.
However, if the global epidemic is alleviated, the global dependence on China's supply chain will decline, and a large number of purchases will be transferred to Southeast Asia and other third-party producing countries.
In general, from the perspective of the size of China's domestic market, China's economy has a strong resilience, and China's overall industrial upgrading, especially the nine major development directions of the 14th Five-Year Plan, will gradually unfold in 2022, deeply driving the development of China's economy.
Fourth, there is no bad economy, only bad companies, no bad industries, only bad enterprises.
For every enterprise, even at a time of rapid economic development, there will be business failures. Even when the economy is slowing down, there will be high-growth companies.
Today, in the case of insufficient overall demand, there will also be new needs for special industries, special fields, and special user groups, and there will also be many new opportunities and new application scenarios.
For every enterprise, it is necessary to learn to use new technology tools and platforms to help enterprises expand more opportunities and possibilities. Just like the industrialized application of short video live broadcasting, it has become a window of opportunity for enterprises to break out of the siege and get rid of the sea of suffering.
03
Next, the views of senior investor and columnist Ofsan Renxing Song Zi.
After the fact, Zhuge Liang is good, and Zhuge Liang is unpredictable beforehand!
Investment is the prediction of the future, I usually in the work, will read a lot of macro, industry, company analysis reports, basically every research institute, investment institutions have different views on the same industry and company.
However, the final decision is based on my own research and investment decision-making system.
So, what does the future hold? Was it the Great Depression or the Big Opportunity? This is difficult to judge, including the top industry leaders will have misjudgments.
We can review the live broadcast in March 2020:
One is the world's largest hedge fund with 150 billion yuan, Bridgewater Fund founder Dalio, bearish.
The other is the largest private equity fund holding $500 billion, Blackstone founder Schwarzman, who is bullish.
As a stock god, Buffett has always been firmly bullish.
These three great gods, in the fog of the epidemic that has never been seen before, who are you listening to?
Buffett's Berkshire company is up 30 percent in 2021, up from 27 percent for the S&P 500. As of November 2021, the Bridgewater Fund has a return of 9%, which is really unpredictable.
My judgment of 2022 was that three months ago the analysis would enter the "11th wave bull market", and we have laid it out.
In the industry, I am more optimistic about the new energy industry driven by the double carbon policy, which deserves our special attention.
Some friends said that new energy has not been on fire for a year?
I think it is not over, new energy as a new engine for China's future economic transformation, we see anti-monopoly, double reduction, real estate industry rectification, we can understand our high-level determination of policy implementation and policy sustainability.
Some friends are also worried that 2022 is the last year that new energy vehicles enjoy subsidy policies, and will new energy vehicles decline?
At first I also had this concern, but after in-depth research, we have three observations:
1. Subsidies will be reduced by 20% in 2020, but sales of new energy vehicles will double in 2021.
Judging from this trend, even if the subsidy is cancelled after 2022, it will not have much impact on new energy vehicles.
2, in addition to subsidies, there is a new industry policy, the state also has a "double integral" policy for new energy vehicles, which refers to the fuel consumption points and new energy points of car companies.
Traditional car manufacturers do not produce new energy vehicles, "double integral" is negative, then you have to spend money to buy points from new energy vehicle companies.
New energy vehicle companies can make money through double points and indirectly get subsidies.
Just like BYD has 750,000 positive points in 2020, the current market situation is 1 point 3,000 yuan, ANDD's 750,000 positive points are worth 2.25 billion yuan, close to BYD's profit of 2.443 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2021.
3. Find out the market positioning.
In Wednesday's article, I shared with you the "National God Car" Wuling Automobile MINI electric vehicle, dare to give up subsidies, and did not do a new energy vehicle that can get the national new energy subsidy for 300 kilometers of endurance, and is positioned for short-distance transportation.
In July 2020, Wuling Hongguang MINI EV was listed, with a mileage of only 120 kilometers and a price positioning of 28,800 yuan, and at the same time, through the new content, new channels and new users created by Xiaohongshu, the car was transformed from a durable consumer product that symbolized its status into a fashion consumer product that realized short-distance transportation, and it became a hit as soon as it was listed.
For us entrepreneurs, whether we are engaged in the new energy industry or not, we can follow this idea, find the right market positioning and profit model, and redefine your products and company strategy through the five news of new consumption: "new content, new users, new channels, new products, and new organizational structure".
04
Finally, there is the senior entrepreneur and columnist of Shan Renxing, Teacher Shi Laomao.
There is an idiom in the "Warring States Policy", called: three people become tigers, which is used as a metaphor for some things to say more people, so that more people can take rumors as facts.
Singing the decline of the world economy, whether it becomes a "tiger", whether the wolf is coming, it remains to be seen, and it is really not up to anyone to decide.
However, condescending language is easy to attract people's attention and trepidation, and it is always good to plan ahead.
Even if the epidemic is unpredictable and a country continues to friction with us, we still have to believe that everything we face will get better and better.
The state's money will be because of the policy from top to bottom, next, money naturally along the "14th Five-Year Plan", and then down, according to the annual reports of governments at all levels, to the enterprise, are applied and digested to undertake.
Therefore, at the national level, we can see the clues from three points: direct effect, indirect impact, and "fire at the city gate, affecting the pond fish".
Everything we face, pushed to these three levels, we can draw corresponding conclusions.
Last time at the Roundtable Forum, we talked about embracing change and changing ourselves in the new year.
First of all, it is to be done to yourself.
Enterprise operation can not only be for economic interests, abide by business ethics, the spirit of contract, excellence in manufacturing products, is the duty of the enterprise.
Enterprises should be social enterprises, so that the government can rest assured and the people can rest assured, otherwise it is impossible to continue to develop.
Second, it is to be strong.
Do not follow the trend, give full play to the strengths, persevere to the end, and strive to grow against the trend after the epidemic.
To avoid the "honor" trap, it is not a good thing for the whole people to learn Huawei, and "a hundred flowers bloom and a hundred schools of thought contend" is gratifying.
Then, it's about being yourself.
Career and family should take care of both, but also to maintain physical and mental health.
Finally, I wish you all the best.
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Responsible editor| Luo Yingfan
The pictures in this article are from the Internet