I think that zhuge liang did not choose the Northern Expedition at that time, but to recuperate, the situation of the Shu state would be much better, if it could not unify the world, it could also support for many more years without perishing.
From 221 AD, Liu Bei declared himself emperor in Chengdu, and by 263 was destroyed by Wei. , a total of two emperors, forty-three years of the state.
Liu Bei declared himself emperor in 221 and died in the White Emperor's City in 223. He only served as emperor for two years. For the other forty-one years, it was Liu Chan who was emperor. Zhuge Liang assisted Liu Chan from 223 to 234, a total of 12 years. After Zhuge Liang's death, the Shu state continued to exist for 29 years.
In the last years of the Eastern Han Dynasty, due to the successive years of warlords' wars, as well as famine and disease, thousands of villages were sparse, tens of thousands of households were sparse, and the population was greatly reduced. The tragic image is really unbearable to see and hear.
Cao Cao wrote in his poem "Artemisia Lixing": "Armor gives birth to lice, and all surnames die." White bones are exposed in the wild, and there is no chicken chirping for thousands of miles. The people are left behind, and the thoughts are broken." Cao Cao also wrote in the poem "Bitter Cold Line": "There are few people in the valley, and the snow falls on He Feifei"! These are all true reflections of the misery and decay of society at that time. In addition, Cao Cao directly shouted in the poem "Duguan Mountain": "Between heaven and earth, people are precious." All this fully illustrates the serious shortage of population and talents at that time, as well as the desire for people. Without a population, where are the talents?
Among the three kingdoms of Wei Shu and Wu, the state of Wei was the most powerful and had the largest population. The State of Wu was the second, and the State of Shu was the weakest. At that time, for each of their countries, population was the most important strategic resource, whether it was war or production, it was inseparable from population. Population determines the strength of a country.
When Liu Bei withdrew from Xinye, he was very persistent in taking the local people away. This is not only Liu Bei's "benevolent act", but more importantly, population is an important strategic resource for war and production. The Shu Han had always been fighting for the Qiang people in the west, and had also been expanding to the south, recruiting troops in the southern central region.
Cao Cao was also a multi-migration population, and when he withdrew from Hanzhong, he also took away the people of Hanzhong. This is not only a strategic resource for Liu Bei to reduce the population, but also a strategic resource for himself to increase the population. The State of Wei had been tightening its grip on the northern and western regions to prevent the outflow of people from these areas.
Sun Quan is also plundering the population everywhere, and he is not only trying to recover the population in his own territory. He even sent troops to take Yizhou (present-day Taiwan) and Zhuya (present-day Xuwen and Hainan Islands, Guangdong) to plunder the population.
All three countries are struggling to expand territory, compete for and attract immigrants.
In just twelve years, Zhuge Liang carried out five Northern Expeditions. Under the banner of "KuangFu Han Room" for the former emperor, the Northern Expedition was a politically correct basic national policy in the Shu State, and no one dared to oppose it. As a result, a large amount of material and population resources of the Shu state was consumed, making the Shu state weak for a long time.
In fact, it can be seen from the first Northern Expedition that due to the insufficient strength of the Shu State, in the Northern Expedition, the Shu State could not get any cheap at all. Because the State of Wei was not only powerful, but also handsome and shrewd. Therefore, even if the Shu state temporarily took advantage of it, as soon as the main army of the Wei state arrived, the Shu army would have to retreat quickly. Otherwise, you may not really be able to go back.
In this situation, for the Shu kingdom, the best choice should be to avoid provocation, taoguang and obscure, recuperate, cultivate talents, enhance national strength, and wait for the opportunity.
If Zhuge Liang can have enough strategic determination, Taoguang to recuperate, recuperate, reduce population losses, leave the opportunity of the Northern Expedition to Eastern Wu as much as possible, and strive for the golden period of peaceful development for the Shu kingdom for twenty years, develop production well, improve productivity, and expand the scale of the population.
Then, the population and national strength of the Shu state could at least double in twenty years. In such a good situation, Zhuge Liang would not have died so early.
If Zhuge Liang could live as big as Sima Yi, then Sima Yi would die before him. Zhuge Jin, Lu Xun, and Sun Quan of Eastern Wu also died before him.
At that time, it was not whether the Shu kingdom would perish or not. Zhuge Liang chose the Northern Expedition or the Eastward Movement. The difficulty of dominating the world is the smallest! So live to have a chance!