The Hang Seng Index plunged, the US group fell 11%, Bilibili fell 10%, can it bottom out?

Today, the Hong Kong stock technology sector suffered a setback, and most technology stocks were sluggish. As of the close, Meituan-W fell 11.16%, Bilibili-SW fell 10.63%, Tencent Holdings fell 4.31%, Alibaba-SW fell 2.05%, and NetEase-S fell 3.66%.

It is worth mentioning that since last year, these stocks have been falling and falling. So can The Hong Kong stock technology stocks after this big fall be able to bottom out?

The State Administration for Market Regulation has issued intensive fines

On the news side, on January 5, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued 13 penalty decisions, involving Internet companies such as Tencent Holdings, Ali, and Bilibili, and the amount of fines imposed on the enterprises involved in each case was 500,000 yuan.

Although the amount of the fine is the top fine, it has aroused heated discussion on the Internet. Many netizens believe that for these Internet giant companies, the penalty amount of 500,000 yuan is too small, which can be said to be innocuous and not enough to form a deterrent.

In fact, in recent years, the concentration of business operators in the Internet field has become the focus of anti-monopoly supervision, and the regulatory authorities have been releasing clear signals to strengthen anti-monopoly through various means.

In the past 2021, it can be said that China's anti-monopoly law enforcement has been an unprecedentedly active year. According to the data, from January 1, 2021 to December 14, 2021, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a total of 118 anti-monopoly penalty cases in this year, far higher than the average of about 25 cases in the past five years; of which 89 involved Internet companies, accounting for 75.42% of the total, with fines of more than 20 billion yuan.

First, Alibaba was fined 18.289 billion yuan for requiring merchants to sign an exclusive cooperation agreement. This figure set a record for China's anti-monopoly fines, equivalent to 4% of Alibaba's total sales of 455.7 billion yuan in China in 2019, and the "Ali case" is also regarded as an important symbol of preventing platform monopoly, and the anti-monopoly curtain has been opened.

Subsequently, Meituan was also fined 3.4 billion yuan for the "two alternatives" behavior that required merchants to sign an exclusive cooperation agreement. Then, in November 2021, the State Administration for Market Regulation again reported 43 cases of Internet company violations, and imposed a top penalty of 500,000 yuan on Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, Baidu, Didi and Meituan.

At the same time, the State Anti-Monopoly Administration has also been established, major cases have been landed, law enforcement methods have also shown the characteristics of penetration and diversification, and China's regulatory model has gradually been established.

Today, the second trading day of 2022, anti-monopoly has once again announced 13 cases, which once again shows the strong regulatory attitude of the National Anti-Monopoly Administration. Although 500,000 yuan is a dime a dozen for these Internet leaders, from a long-term perspective, it has an extraordinary impact on Internet companies.

It should be known that the Internet industry, which was previously a new economy and has a very special profit model, is not a typical regulatory object of the Anti-Monopoly Law. However, because many platforms are related to people's livelihood consumption, and enterprises with market dominance use data, algorithms, technologies and platform rules to set up obstacles, and even some directly affect the interests of the public, such as "platform two choices" and "big data killing" and other issues, so the Internet has become the focus of supervision.

Under the anti-monopoly policy, there will be no disorderly competition in these Internet industries, and there will be no phenomenon of "one dominant", which means that the development environment of the Internet economy has changed, which is one of the reasons why the stock prices of Hong Kong Internet platform companies have fallen today.

However, it should be pointed out that although the supervision of the concentration of business operators in the Internet field has been continuously strengthened, the purpose of supervision is to guide enterprises to compete benignly and serve the national economy, not only for the sake of competitive "justice" to crack down on large enterprises, but to achieve a certain stage of economic and social development, in order to maximize social welfare of the public choice.

Traffic growth dries up

In the secondary market, since last year, the Hong Kong stock technology stock sector has been in a state of adjustment, which is not only related to the strengthening of supervision, or it is also related to itself.

In recent years, Internet platforms have developed rapidly, and have penetrated into all walks of life and infiltrated into all aspects of people's lives. Some platforms only need a few years to achieve a large market share; this is the result of decades for physical stores, and the platform is growing too fast. At the same time, the stock prices of Hong Kong stocks and US stocks of Chinese Internet companies have generally doubled in 2020.

And this is mainly due to the "traffic dividend", to put it bluntly, the Internet is the traffic business, and the traffic is made up of every user. But any growth is not endless, the Internet platform is no exception, users to the top, equal to the traffic peak, growth peak is not far away.

As we all know, from the PC era to the mobile Internet era, the number of internet users has increased dramatically. At present, the domestic demographic dividend and traffic dividend have basically peaked, and the scale of BAT users is difficult to improve. For example, the average daily time of users during the Spring Festival in 2021 only increased by 12 minutes year-on-year.

Previously, the rapid growth of the Internet relied on the rapid growth of users, and the current traffic dividend has peaked, which means that new traffic can only be obtained through competition. The shift from a "positive-sum game" to a "zero-sum game" also means that the game will be more brutal.

In fact, the Internet platform itself has long been aware of the problem and strives to find new growth models, such as Tencent's active layout of VR games and chips and other businesses, and constantly increase marketing and research and development efforts.

Alibaba is also increasing its investment in the real economy, such as the revenue of the enterprise digital and service sector composed of Alibaba Cloud and Cainiao, which increased by 32% year-on-year in the six months ended September 30, 2021.

Whether you can find it or not, there is no doubt that the "barbaric growth" of the past decade or so cannot come back.

For the future market, GF Strategy Zheng Xinhuang said that the market may not pay too much attention to when the so-called "policy bottom" will come, and more importantly, how to correctly recognize and understand the benefits of supervision to the long-term development of the industry, and gradually dispel doubts and pessimism while the policy is implemented, and promote the reversal of the "emotional bottom".

Li Wenliang, fund manager of the Southern Fund, said that it is possible to consider the layout of some Hang Seng Index index funds whose valuation and cost performance have been significantly improved, and if their fundamentals have improved slightly, or if incremental funds increase attention, it is likely that there will be a repair market.

In general, the investment logic of Chinese Internet platform companies has changed. Say goodbye to high growth, comprehensively improve efficiency, refuse to burn money and expand in disorder, and a new Internet world is coming.