After Liu Bei's death, Zhuge Liang carried out the Northern Expedition five times in 7 years and used troops against Cao Wei. Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition, although the direction of each use of troops was slightly different, the military strategy has always emphasized steady and steady fighting, step by step as a battalion, and advancing step by step.
The first Northern Expedition, the soldiers pointed to Qishan; the second Northern Expedition, the soldiers went out of the Great Scattered Pass, pointing directly at Chen Cang; the third Northern Expedition, the soldiers pointed to Wudu and Yinping; the fourth Northern Expedition, again the soldiers pointed to Qishan; the fifth Northern Expedition, the soldiers out of the Xie valley, Tun Bing Wuzhangyuan.
Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition achieved the best results, undoubtedly for the first time. In this Northern Expedition, what caused controversy in later generations was that Wei Yan sacrificed the Meridian Valley Plot, Zhuge Liang did not adopt it, and at the same time reused the horse mo, resulting in the loss of the street pavilion, so that the Northern Expedition was abandoned halfway. The subsequent 4 Northern Expeditions were all fought steadily and steadily, until the death of Wuzhangyuan, Zhuge Liang did not use the strange strategy of soldiers to go out of the Meridian Valley until his death.
1. Why was the Meridian Valley Conspiracy abandoned
Why was the Meridian Valley Conspiracy abandoned by Zhuge Liang? The Chronicle of the Three Kingdoms borrows Wei Yan's saying that "liang is cowardly", and Wei Yan believes that Zhuge Liang's courage is too small. The reason recorded in the "Zizhi Tongjian" is that Zhuge Liang believes that it is a "dangerous plan" and an unsafe dangerous strategy, so it is better to advance safety from the main road, steadily and steadily occupy Longyou, "ten perfections must be overcome without worry", and there is full certainty without mistakes.
Some people have always disagreed with such an interpretation of the history books. Feng Menglong of the Ming Dynasty said that the main reason was that Zhuge Liang knew very well that Wei Yan's talent would not live under the people for a long time, and he had too many concerns about him, "too much prevention, too strict holding", too much prevention, too much vigilance, in the final analysis, "courage is to hide knowledge", courage is blinded by concerns.
Some people believe that judging from Zhuge Liang's failure to adopt Wei Yan's strategy, his military strategic thinking has shortcomings and is an excellent political talent, not an excellent military talent. Some people also say that this is related to Zhuge Liang's personality, who refuses to gamble with the generals Wei Yan and Shu Han's elite soldiers, and is cautious and risky. In addition, some people said that Zhuge Liang deliberately suppressed Wei Yan, reused cronies, and so on.
2, how valuable is the Meridian Valley Conspiracy
Many people expressed pity for the failure of Zhuge Liang's first Northern Expedition, and shu Han captured the three counties of Nan'an, Tianshui, and Anding among the five counties of Longyou early, and surrendered Jiang Wei. Cao Wei, because Liu Bei was dead, shu han had been recuperating for several years and had no movement, so he was defenseless against shu han. In the face of the sudden situation, Cao Wei was "afraid of the government and the opposition" and "the courtiers did not know the plan", and the ministers were helpless for a while.
Therefore, some people hypothesized that if At this time Wei Yan led another elite army, unexpectedly took the Meridian Valley, and the soldiers approached Chang'an, they would definitely achieve greater results. Thinking back to that year, Han Xinming, the Marquis of Huaiyin, repaired the boardwalk, sent Fan Duo and Dou Bao to pretend to attack, and surprised the soldiers to secretly cross Chen Cang, and won a surprise victory. Wei Yan's Meridian Valley plot was similar to Han Xin's plan.
3. Is there a possibility of success in the Meridian Valley Conspiracy?
Is it possible for Wei Yanbing to succeed in the Meridian Valley? In Wei Yan's calculation, the probability of success of this calculation is extremely high, for the following reasons:
Reason one: I led 5,000 elite soldiers (some say 10,000), carrying rations, lightly packed, from Chuzhong along the Qinling Mountains to the east, into the Meridian Valley to turn north, it does not take 10 days to attack Chang'an.
Reason two: Xiahou Shu, who guarded Chang'an, was "timid and unscrupulous", timid and stupid. Suddenly, he learned that the Shu Han army had come and "would abandon the city and flee."
Reason three: It will take 20 days for Cao Wei to gather a large army to arrive, and the surplus grain from the Hengmen granary and the people's escape can solve the problem of my elite army food supply.
Reason four: Within 20 days, Mr. Zhuge you can also come from Xiegu. In this way, "in one fell swoop, the west of Xianyang can be determined."
Wei Yan's troops out of the Meridian Valley were similar to blitzkriegs, decapitation battles, and landing battles, relying on rapid mobility to kill or drive away Xiahou Shu, seize Chang'an in one fell swoop, and hold out for 20 days to wait for the army to "rush the beach to land". If all 4 conditions are met at the same time, you will succeed! With reason and evidence, strategy and method, Wei Yan's strategy was theoretically very likely to succeed.
4. What is the reason why Zhuge Liang did not adopt it?
What was the reason why Zhuge Liang did not adopt the soldiers to go out of the Meridian Valley? We must be clear that the overall national strength and military ability of The Shu Han are not at all on the same scale as Cao Wei, and the Shu Han can beat Cao Wei very painfully with the strength of the whole country, but it is basically impossible to kill Cao Wei. In this regard, Zhuge Liang, as the great steward of the Shu Han Dynasty, should have a clear understanding.
Knowing that you can't do it, what is the picture? We can understand that war promotes peace and development, seizes more human and material resources through war, and at least disrupts the pace of Cao Wei's domestic development through uninterrupted war. Zhuge Liang was not a simple military general, and the purpose of Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition was by no means to eat Cao Wei, but to weaken the other side and strengthen himself as much as possible.
Imagine: if Wei Yan really succeeded and captured Chang'an in one fell swoop, Cao Wei would definitely gather the strength of the whole country to counterattack, and it would be difficult to save Chang'an with the shu and Han war capabilities, and the two countries would inevitably stage a decisive battle, and the possibility of Shu Han winning was almost zero. What you don't deserve is something you can't do. Therefore, Zhuge Liang would rather fight steadily and steadily, resolutely not to take risks, and to obtain a little more benefits.
After the first Northern Expedition did not adopt Wei Yan's strategy, Cao Wei was already aware of the process of the Meridian Valley plot and sent troops to guard it. Therefore, in the 4 Northern Expeditions since then, Zhuge Liang is even more unlikely to send troops to fight hard.
At the same time, there is a fact that cannot be ignored: the soldiers out of the Meridian Valley have really been staged since then, but they have not succeeded. According to the "Wei Zhi", Cao Zhen led his troops from the Meridian Valley to the south to attack Shu Han, "it will rain for more than forty days", in the case of heavy rain for more than 40 days, the boardwalk was cut off, and had to withdraw ...
However, the so-called conspiracy is naturally difficult to replicate. For example, Deng Ai led his elite soldiers to smuggle into Yinping, like a heavenly soldier descending, directly pounding the Base Camp of Shu Han. By analogy, when Wei Yan's troops left the Meridian Valley, Cao Wei was negligent in guarding against Shu Han, the military garrison in the Meridian Valley was limited, and Zhuge Liang's other large armies were likely to enter the no-man's land, so Wei Yan's troops out of the Meridian Valley were very likely to create a miracle...
So, in the end, how should we evaluate Wei Yanbing's miracle out of the Meridian Valley, if we evaluate Zhuge Liang's final choice... Maybe people will keep arguing.