The Central Rural Work Conference has set out the key points: Protecting the "oil tanks" and vigorously expanding the production of soybeans and oilseeds

Beijing, December 28 (Xinhua Finance) -- Xinhua Finance has stabilized the basic agricultural plan and done a good job in the "three rural areas" work. Recently, the Central Rural Work Conference pointed out that ensuring the supply of primary products is a major strategic issue, and the rice bowl of the Chinese must be firmly in its own hands at all times.

Since the beginning of this year, international grain prices have stepped out of the "roller coaster" market, the fragility of the global food supply chain has become prominent, and supply assurance has become a priority option for many countries. For many years, China has attached importance to "Chinese grain in a bowl" and firmly grasped the food security concept of "basic self-sufficiency in grain and absolute security of rations". In 2021, the annual grain output reached a new high, remaining above 1.3 trillion catties for seven consecutive years.

However, "the more food you have to eat, the more you have to think about when there is no food." "Thinking of danger in times of peace, China's rural agricultural development still has great potential for development in many aspects." Among them, domestic soybean and oilseed production as agricultural products are designated as the focus of next year.

Domestic soybeans have difficulties, breakthroughs and potential

The Central Rural Work Conference stressed that "we must make every effort to grasp grain production and the supply of important agricultural products, stabilize grain area, vigorously expand soybean and oil production, and ensure that grain output will stabilize at more than 1.3 trillion jin in 2022."

Soybean and oilseed production is highlighted as agricultural products. Since 2020, China has continued to emphasize food security and focus on adjusting the supply-side structure. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, rice, wheat and corn accounted for 31.17%, 20.06% and 39.91% of the total grain output of the year in 2021. Among them, corn, which accounts for nearly 40%, is China's well-deserved main force in grain production, while soybeans account for only 2.4%.

Liu Bingxin, chief analyst of soybean world network, said that in recent years, due to the rapid growth rate of domestic corn deep processing capacity, the thorough destocking of corn stocks, and the premise of increasing the subsidy for soybean planting year by year, the domestic soybean area in 2016/17-2020/21 has increased significantly, according to the data of the National Grain Information Center, the domestic soybean planting area has increased from 6.506 million hectares to 9.882 million hectares, with an average annual increase of 6.19% The average annual growth rate of soybean area in Heilongjiang, the main producing area, from 2018 to 2021 is 9.46%.

Since the outbreak of the global epidemic in 2020, the supply and demand for live pigs have increased, and maintaining the stability of feed prices has become a challenge that must be faced. In February 2021, the No. 1 document of the Central Committee pointed out that the policy tone of "stabilizing soybeans and increasing corn" should be implemented, and the planting efficiency of superimposed corn itself is always better than that of soybeans, so the corn area in the production area in 2021/22 has increased significantly and soybeans have decreased sharply. However, since then, a series of policies implemented by the state this year, such as increasing the number of old wheat and rice auctioned in temporary storage, and increasing corn imports, have fully guaranteed the effective supply of corn, so the area policy in 2022/23 will return to the tone of expanding oil crop production.

Because soybeans and corn are highly competitive in terms of planting area, farmers also pay more attention to the comparative benefits of crops. At the same time, the price difference between domestic and foreign soybeans this year has reached a high level of nearly a decade, and cheap imported beans have squeezed out a large number of domestic soybean demand space.

"The demand for soybeans in China is huge, and domestic production can meet the demand for edible soy products, but from the perspective of yield, there is still huge room for progress compared with foreign countries, and improving yield is the focus of improving domestic soybean production." Si Wei, dean of the School of Economics and Management of China Agricultural University, said.

Expand soybean and oil production reduce supply risks

Si Wei, dean of the College of Economics and Management of China Agricultural University, said that the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is a key period for promoting agricultural modernization, accelerating agricultural quality and efficiency, and transforming and upgrading. In this context, 85% of China's soybean supply depends on imports, while the uncertainties of the international market have increased concerns about the stability of the international food supply chain, and the dependence on the international market has also increased the supply risk. With the upgrading of the national food consumption structure, the demand for soy products has also increased accordingly, and ensuring soybean production is of great significance to food security.

Lu Kaiyu, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, proposed that the domestic and foreign environment for importing soybeans is undergoing major changes. Factors such as the disaster situation in the main soybean producing countries affect the price and supply of soybeans in China. In March 2020, factors such as flooding disasters and epidemics in Brazil led to restrictions on Brazilian exports, which directly led to high domestic soybean prices and passed on to the entire soybean industry chain. In June 2021, Brazil suffered a major drought and a serious reduction in soybean production, which not only led to restrictions on China's soybean imports, but also pushed up China's soybean prices.

Li Chunding, director of the Department of Economics, Management, Trade and Economics of China Agricultural University, said that since the beginning of this year, the energy crisis has broken out in various countries, and in this context, the demand for biofuels has further increased, and it can be expected that the demand for soybeans will further increase in the future.

From the perspective of the market, Wei Xin, a researcher in the futures breeding industry of CITIC Construction Investment, said that this year's international vegetable oil market has been in waves, and the prices of palm oil, vegetable oil, soybean oil and other bulk oils and fats have risen. The supply chain and production end of the new crown epidemic are the main reasons, and the inflation caused by the increase in currency issuance in Europe and the United States is also an important driving force, and the passive situation of China's oilseeds relying heavily on foreign imports has led to a long-term fluctuation in the international market, superimposed with major oil importing countries such as the United States, Canada, etc. There is a certain degree of trade disputes and political wrestling, when China's own oil supply capacity is improved, on the one hand, it can ensure the stability of China's oil supply and price. On the other hand, it is also possible to switch between active and passive situations in trade and political struggles.

Lu Kaiyu said that the proposal to expand the production of soybeans and oilseeds is the continuation and deepening of China's focus on the national strategic needs, making food security more resilient, adjusting the domestic layout, and optimizing the pattern of international imports. In a sense, it is also an important component of China's overall food security while enhancing structural security.

Seed enterprises may become the main force in expanding production

In 2021, the planting area of soybeans will inevitably be squeezed out, and how to promote the coordinated development of total amount and quality next, and steady progress has become the focus of rural work.

Si Wei proposed that After all, China's cultivated land area is limited, do a good job of reasonable planning, set long-term goals, such as soybean and corn rotation, delineation of years, is conducive to the sustainable development of land, but also conducive to maintaining the stability of the total amount.

Si Wei said that the key to improving yield is to enhance research and development capabilities, in this regard, China's seed industry enterprises still have a large space for development, focusing on biotechnology research and development: improve yield, enhance stress resistance, enhance the ability to adapt to the climate. In addition, we must also pay attention to the innovation of the organizational system, through the change of the organizational mode of scientific research investment, the intensity of investment has increased, so that China's seed industry is more competitive, which is also the current pain point.

Li Chunding also said that market-oriented means actively guide the production and supply of soybeans and oils and fats as important.

Wei Xin pointed out from the market perspective that it is recommended to emphasize the optimization of the supply side while promoting the progress of the consumption side, optimizing and enriching the structure of China's oil consumption, and promoting the concept of healthy oil use. Supply-side adjustment can rely on policies in the short term, but in the long run, the market is still needed as the main force, which can promote the oilseed oilseed industry with Chinese characteristics, fully protect the planting of non-GMO oilseed varieties, and promote the research and development iteration of oilseed varieties.

Liu Bingxin said that last year, Heilongjiang adopted soybeans to corn and adjusted the cultivated land within the region, adding an additional 150 yuan / mu subsidy on the basis of grower subsidies, which played a better guiding role. Increasing subsidies for the planting of soybeans, rapeseed, peanuts and other oil crops may greatly increase the enthusiasm of farmers to plant. In addition, in terms of increasing the import of food in the international market, it is necessary to take into account the pressure of import quotas, and in terms of supplementing the shortage of domestic food supply, increase the import of some substitutes, which can alleviate the shortage of domestic feed and not hit the quota of corn too much; at the same time, it is necessary to build a stable and reliable international food supply chain, so that the key import source countries of important agricultural products can build a win-win situation with them.

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