CFIC Introduction
"The data for the first three quarters show that loans have maintained stable growth and liquidity is reasonable and abundant, which will help support the continued recovery of the economy." Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the current financial aggregate is generally stable, and the stock of social financing has exceeded 400 trillion yuan for the first time, supporting the real economy effectively and effectively. However, the financial management department is gradually diluting the focus on the financial aggregate index, and the growth of the financial aggregate is in the stage of "deceleration and quality improvement".
Original title: [Xinhua Interpretation] Financial support has been strengthened, and the "combination punch" of incremental policies has continued to be effective - interpreting the financial data in the first three quarters
The scale and stock of social financing in mainland China exceeded 400 trillion yuan, broad money (M2) rose steadily, and loan interest rates remained at a historically low level...... The People's Bank of China released financial data for the first three quarters on October 14. What are the highlights of the new financial data? What are the main areas where credit funds are flowing? What is the effect of the "combination punch" of financial policy?
According to financial statistics released by the People's Bank of China on the same day, at the end of September, the balance of RMB loans in mainland China was 253.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%; The balance of M2 increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate rebounded from the previous month; The stock of social financing was 402.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 8% year-on-year.
"The data for the first three quarters show that loans have maintained stable growth and liquidity is reasonable and abundant, which will help support the continued recovery of the economy." Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the current financial aggregate is generally stable, and the stock of social financing has exceeded 400 trillion yuan for the first time, supporting the real economy effectively and effectively. However, the financial management department is gradually diluting the focus on the financial aggregate index, and the growth of the financial aggregate is in the stage of "deceleration and quality improvement".
In terms of structure, since the beginning of this year, there have been more new corporate loans, especially medium and long-term corporate loans, which has provided sufficient financial support for stabilizing investment.
According to the data, in the first three quarters, the loans of enterprises (institutions) increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, which was the main force in the increase in loans. Among them, medium and long-term loans increased by 9.66 trillion yuan, accounting for more than 70%.
Specifically, where did the credit money go?
The reporter learned from the People's Bank of China that at the end of September, the balance of medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing industry was 13.88 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, of which the balance of medium- and long-term loans in the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 12% year-on-year; the balance of loans to specialized, special and new enterprises was 4.26 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%; The balance of inclusive small and micro loans was 32.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%. The growth rate of these loans was higher than that of all loans in the same period.
"The credit structure continues to be optimized." Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian, said that in recent years, the mainland's economic structure has been transformed and upgraded, new drivers such as green development and scientific and technological innovation have been accelerated, and the credit structure has also been adjusted accordingly. A number of structural monetary policy tools focus on the real economy, guiding more and more credit resources to flow to major strategies, key areas and weak links.
In addition, the interest rate level on the mainland has remained stable and declining, which will help enterprises and households reduce financing costs and interest burdens.
The reporter learned from the People's Bank of China that in September, the interest rate on newly issued personal housing loans was about 3.32%, about 2 basis points lower than the previous month and about 78 basis points lower than the same period last year; The weighted average interest rate on new corporate loans was about 3.63%, about 21 basis points lower than the same period last year and at a historical low.
Since the beginning of this year, some new situations and problems have emerged in the mainland's economic operation, social expectations are on the weak side, and the demand for effective financing in the short term is insufficient. In this regard, the financial management department has stepped up policy efforts and launched a package of incremental policies to focus on boosting confidence.
Since late September, the People's Bank of China has rapidly implemented a package of incremental policies: reducing the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rate, lowering the interest rate on existing housing loans, and creating structural monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the stock market......
"With the continuous implementation of the package of incremental policies, the effective demand of society will gradually recover." Wen Bin said that the policy "combination box" launched by the People's Bank of China exceeded expectations and was strong, grasping the two key points of real estate and capital markets.
At present, major commercial banks have issued relevant announcements on the adjustment of existing mortgage interest rates in batches, clarifying specific operational matters, promoting the steady implementation of the adjustment arrangement, and making borrowers feel more confident.
Recently, the effect of the previous policy has gradually emerged, and the real estate market has undergone positive changes: the popularity of the property market in many places has begun to pick up, and the transaction activity has increased; Residents have seen a decrease in prepayment of their mortgages, and the property market is expected to improve.
A staff member of the Shenzhen branch of a major state-owned bank revealed that since September 25, the average daily number of applications for personal mortgage prepayment in the bank has dropped by 60% compared with the average daily level in the first half of September.
The key work in the second half of the year announced by the People's Bank of China clearly stated that it will continue to implement a sound monetary policy, increase financial support for the real economy, and shift more focus to benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption.
Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, also said that financial institutions will be guided to scientifically assess risks, restrict the financing supply of industries with excess capacity, and meet reasonable consumer financing needs in a more targeted manner. At the same time, it is necessary to give full play to the policy synergy to promote the matching of supply and demand.
"Effectively implement the stock policy and strengthen the introduction of incremental policies" - the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on September 26 made clear arrangements, demonstrating the confidence and determination of the CPC Central Committee to make every effort to boost the economy.
The reporter learned that in the next stage, the People's Bank of China will further implement a prudent monetary policy, closely observe the effect of the previous policy, and accelerate the promotion of the policy to take effect. Monetary policy still has sufficient space and reserves, and will continue to do a good job in countercyclical adjustment.
Dong Ximiao said that in the context of the acceleration of the transformation of old and new kinetic energy, to boost domestic demand in the future, especially in terms of expanding consumer demand, monetary policy will also work together with other macro policies to create a suitable monetary and financial environment for activating the endogenous power and vitality of the economy.
Source of this article: Xinhua Finance
Reporter: Wu Yu, Ren Jun
WeChat editor: Liu Sile
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