Hit a combination of punches to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize

General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: "The housing issue is not only a people's livelihood issue but also a development issue, which is related to the vital interests of thousands of households, to the people's living and working in peace and contentment, to the overall economic and social development, and to social harmony and stability. ”

The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held on September 26 emphasized that "it is necessary to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize" and "to respond to the concerns of the masses, adjust the housing purchase restriction policy, reduce the interest rate of the stock of housing loans, and pay close attention to improving land, fiscal and taxation, financial and other policies, and promote the construction of a new model of real estate development".

Recently, the relevant departments have guided all localities to act quickly, grasp the implementation of stock policies, grasp the introduction of incremental policies, and play a set of "combination punches"; Local governments have lifted or reduced restrictive measures to support residents' demand for rigid and improved housing. These measures have released a strong signal of stabilizing growth and stabilizing the property market, which will further boost confidence and improve expectations.

At a press conference held by the Information Office of the State Council on October 18, Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that during the National Day, the number of visits and transactions of some real estate projects has improved significantly. According to incomplete statistics from market institutions, the transaction area of new houses increased by 102% and the transaction area of second-hand houses increased by 205% during the National Day period. "The change is very noticeable, and we have reason to believe that there will be a positive change in the real estate market." Sheng Laiyun said.

How do you view the current operation situation and development trend of the real estate market? Will the purchased housing be delivered on time? In response to issues of general concern to society, the reporter conducted interviews.

How effective is the policy package?

-- Since October, the transaction of new and second-hand houses has increased significantly, and the land market in large cities has also recovered

What are the main aspects of the recent real estate optimization and adjustment policies? The result?

"How do you fight the 'combination punch'? To sum up, it is four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases. Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, made a specific introduction——

Four cancellations: cancellation or reduction of purchase restrictions, cancellation of sales restrictions, cancellation of price limits, and cancellation of standards for ordinary and non-ordinary residences. The city government is fully given the autonomy to regulate and control, and the city government adjusts or cancels all kinds of restrictive measures for housing purchase according to the city's policies.

Four reductions: reduce the interest rate of housing provident fund loans, reduce the down payment ratio of housing loans, reduce the interest rate of existing loans, and reduce the tax burden of "selling the old and buying the new" for housing. It is intended to reduce the cost of housing for residents, reduce the pressure of loan repayment, and support residents' demand for rigid and improved housing.

Two increases: first, through monetization and resettlement, an additional 1 million units of urban village renovation and dilapidated housing renovation will be implemented; The second is to increase the credit scale of "whitelist" projects to 4 trillion yuan by the end of this year.

The "combination of punches" has been exerted, and the policy effect has gradually emerged.

"Since October, there has been a significant increase in new and second-hand home transactions. Just need to actively enter the market to drive the sales of ordinary commercial real estate. The land market in large cities has also picked up. Yu Xiaofen, dean of the China Housing and Real Estate Research Institute of Zhejiang University of Technology, said.

Many people are concerned about how beneficial it is to reduce the interest rate of existing loans.

Tao Ling, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said that it is expected that most of the existing housing loan interest rates will be adjusted in batches on October 25, and some small and medium-sized banks may complete the adjustment a little later, and the overall expectation is that they will be completed by October 31.

"It is expected that the interest rate of the existing housing loan will drop by about 0.5 percentage points on average, and the overall interest expense will be saved by 150 billion yuan, benefiting 50 million households and 150 million residents." Tao Ling took Beijing as an example, if the original mortgage interest rate is 4.4%, the interest rate is adjusted to 3.55%, and the 1 million yuan, 25-year equal principal and interest mortgage can be reduced by 469 yuan per month, saving a total of more than 140,000 yuan in interest expenses.

In response to the policy of canceling the standards for ordinary and non-ordinary houses, Song Qichao, assistant minister of the Ministry of Finance, said that at present, he is stepping up efforts to study and clarify the tax policies that are connected with the cancellation of the standards for ordinary and non-ordinary houses. These policies will make scientific and reasonable arrangements for the rhythm of real estate regulation and control in relevant cities and the situation of local fiscal revenue; give local governments a certain degree of autonomy to maintain policy stability and fairness; Effectively reduce the burden on real estate enterprises and home buyers, and promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize. The Ministry of Finance said that the specific policies are being implemented in accordance with the relevant procedures.

Ni Hong believes that after three years of adjustment, the real estate market has begun to bottom out under the effect of a series of policies, "We judge that the data in October will be a positive and optimistic result." ”

According to the monthly housing price questionnaire survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics in 70 large and medium-sized cities in late September, 58.3% and 45.4% of the respondents expect the sales prices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing to remain stable or rise in the next six months, respectively, an increase of 10 and 6.5 percentage points compared with the survey results of the previous month.

What is the progress of the work of guaranteeing the delivery of housing?

-- 2.46 million units have been delivered, and 2.23 trillion yuan of loans have been approved for "whitelist" projects

Ensuring the delivery of housing is a powerful measure to prevent and resolve real estate risks and promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize. How to dispel buyers' concerns about delivery safety? What's next?

At present, the battle to ensure the delivery of housing has been vigorously promoted, and 2.46 million units have been delivered. The delivery rate of Gansu, Fujian and Chongqing is over 70%, and the delivery rate of Shangrao in Jiangxi and Tongren in Guizhou is over 80%.

The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to "increase the lending of 'white list' projects". As of October 16, the "white list" real estate projects have been approved and approved loans of 2.23 trillion yuan.

"At present, the conditions for including all real estate development loan projects of commercial housing in the 'white list' have been met." Xiao Yuanqi, deputy director of the State Administration of Financial Supervision, said that in order to do a good job in real estate project financing and ensure the completion and delivery of housing, the financing mechanism of real estate "white list" projects will be further optimized and improved, so that qualified projects "should be fully advanced", and projects that enter the "white list" "should be loaned as much as possible", and funds can be allocated "as soon as possible". Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing and Policy Research Center, analyzed that taking this measure will alleviate the tension in the capital chain of real estate enterprises, control risks, and further boost market confidence.

The funds are solved, and we must pay attention to the progress and quality, so that the people can get the house as soon as possible. Ni Hong said that the next step is to file and set up a card for each set of delivery tasks through the national housing delivery information system, deliver a set of delivery and a set of sales numbers; Take the guaranteed delivery of housing projects as the focus of strengthening housing quality supervision, not only to build the house, but also to build the house well, and to hand over the house that has passed the acceptance to the buyer.

How to keep the bottom line of housing security?

-- In the first nine months of this year, 1.48 million affordable housing units (rooms) have been built and raised, and 4.5 million new citizens and young people can move in by the end of the year

For some new citizens and young people, it is difficult to save enough money to buy a house in a short period of time, and there are problems such as high rents and unstable rental relationships in the rental market.

"It is the bounden duty of the city government to solve the housing problem of new citizens and young people, so that they can live and work in peace and contentment, and it is also an important starting point for improving the competitiveness of the city. While optimizing and improving the real estate policy in light of the local reality, the city governments must increase the intensity of protection and firmly adhere to the bottom line of housing security. Ni Hong said.

Grasp the market with one hand and guarantee with the other. Ni Hong said that it is necessary to meet the diversified and improved housing needs of the masses through the market, and the government should mainly ensure the basic housing needs of the masses. "There are two types of guarantees: leasing and purchasing." "In response to the needs of new citizens and young people, we will vigorously develop affordable rental housing and public rental housing, and let them 'come in, stay, live safely, and succeed in business' in the form of 'one bed, one room, and one suite'." Those who have a certain economic ability, but still have difficulties in buying commercial housing for the time being, can purchase affordable housing. ”

From January to September this year, the mainland has built and raised 1.48 million units (rooms) of affordable housing, and 4.5 million new citizens and young people can live in affordable housing by the end of the year.

How do you see the prospects for the development of the real estate market?

-- The relationship between supply and demand has undergone major changes, the incremental market has shifted to pay equal attention to increasing inventory, and the scale of potential effective demand is still large

In the long run, is there still potential and room for the development of the real estate market?

At present, the relationship between supply and demand in the mainland real estate market has undergone major changes, and the incremental market has shifted to pay equal attention to increasing inventory. Yu Xiaofen introduced that in 2021, the per capita housing construction area of urban residents in mainland China will exceed 40 square meters, which is already at a high level, and the decline in population and the slowdown in urbanization will make it difficult for real estate demand to return to the high level of sales area of up to 1.8 billion square meters in 2021.

"But the scale of potential effective demand is still large." Yu Xiaofen said that referring to the experience of Korea and Japan, the urbanization rates of the two countries in 1991 reached 74.79% and 77.47% respectively, higher than the 66.16% urbanization rate of the mainland's permanent population in 2023; From 1991 to 2007, the average number of new housing units per 1,000 people in the two countries reached 11.35 and 10.34 respectively per year, and according to a conservative estimate of 110 square meters per capita of 70% of the demand, the reasonable demand for new housing in mainland cities and towns should be more than 1 billion square meters. With the improvement of people's living standards and the deepening of urbanization, the demand for rigid and improved housing in the real estate market is still relatively large.

"Based on the average household construction area of 100 square meters, the renovation of 1 million urban villages and dilapidated houses is expected to release about 100 million square meters of rigid housing demand, equivalent to nearly 20% of the country's new residential sales area in the first eight months of this year." Wu Jing, director of the Real Estate Research Center of Tsinghua University, believes that this part of the rigid housing demand will be released in a short period of time, and a series of policy "combination punches" will provide important demand support for promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize nationwide.

"The next step is to work together to do a good job of the 'combination punch' and pay close attention to the implementation, so that the effects of these policies can be fully manifested, so that the people can enjoy the policy dividends. We are confident that the real estate market will stop falling and stabilize. Ni Hong said.

People's Daily (October 20, 2024 Edition 04)