TrueCar: Tesla's fourth-quarter sales expected to rise 43%

TrueCar's latest auto industry forecast released on Wednesday local time shows that Tesla's sales in the United States in the fourth quarter are expected to soar 42.8% from a year ago to 97,417 units, an increase of 28.8% over the previous quarter. According to TrueCar, elon Musk's company expects to deliver 36,300 electric vehicles in the U.S. in December, up 34.7 percent from last year and about 7 percent from November.

The report notes that Tesla sold 33,980 electric vehicles in November.

Musk said on Wednesday that Tesla is working toward its year-end delivery target as stock of the electric car maker rejoins the $1 trillion club.

In addition, TrueCar also predicts that total new car sales in December will be 1144108, down 27% from the same period last year. The research institute estimated that the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of total light vehicle sales in December was 11.9 million units, down 27 percent from a year ago.

So how will established car companies respond?

Both GM and Ford expect a year-on-year decline in sales in December due to a low base a year ago, when sales were hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and dealers were struggling to address inventory. However, sales figures for GM and Ford are expected to rise from November.

Among them, GM sales in December are expected to reach 168,640 units, down 42.9% year-on-year, but up 21% from November; Ford's December sales will reach 166547 units, down 20% from a year ago, but up 5.8% from November.

On a quarterly basis, Ford expects to sell a total of 498428 vehicles, down 7.5 percent year-over-year but up 25.3 percent from the third quarter; GM expects total sales of 441426 units in the fourth quarter, meaning a 42.5 percent year-over-year decline and a 0.4 percent sequential decline.

Historically, December has been a busy month for automakers as they rush to meet year-end targets on their calendars. This year, automakers around the world have been battling chip shortages. Ford, a traditional manufacturer, has long said that it plans to keep inventory at historically low levels.

In addition, the report expects incentive spending in December to fall 55 percent from last year and 51 percent in the fourth quarter.