Author | Jia Weizhong
Source | Car selection network
Recently, the high-profile statements of two "new forces" car companies have caused widespread controversy. At that time, the "new forces" started with the help of the power of capital. Today, although new energy vehicles are still the direction of investment, the investment track is quietly switching.
High-profile car-making "new forces"
Recently, the public statements of the heads of the two companies of the "new forces" of car manufacturing have been very controversial. One said in an interview with the media: "I don't understand why people still buy gas trucks now, is it to smell gasoline?" The other posted a comparison of its own products with the sales of another traditional car company in recent years, intending to prove that it has developed rapidly.
Objectively speaking, this year's "new forces" of car manufacturing do have the confidence to make a high-profile statement. "Daily Economic News" reported: "In November, China's new energy vehicle market showed an unprecedented 'hundred contending' situation, with a total of 14 car companies selling more than 10,000 vehicles a month. Among them, the sales of Weilai, Ideal and Xiaopeng exceeded 10,000, 13,000 and 15,000 units respectively in the month, and the market share of new energy passenger cars was 19.5%. From January to November, china's new energy vehicle share increased to 12.7%. ”
The "new forces" who were still betting on who would deliver 10,000 vehicles first actually sold more than 10,000 a month in the year when the car market was declining, and the huge contrast naturally produced a fluttering feeling.
Warnings from the secondary market
In recent years, behind every step of the development of the "new forces" is inseparable from the promotion of capital, and only from the perspective of a single month's sales of more than 10,000, the market performance has been better than some traditional car companies, should enter the stage of returning investors, and then rely on the development of burning investors' money, it seems a bit unspeakable. In other words, what areas will today's investment institutions focus on?
First of all, new energy vehicles are still the focus of investment. The investment strategy from Huaxin Securities is: "In 10 years, new industrial changes and investment opportunities such as energy storage, green electricity and fuel cells represented by new energy vehicles." 5 to 10 years, intelligent electric drive a new round of investment opportunities; 1 to 2 years, lithium batteries and industrial chain will still be the most certainty in the industry, the largest amount of value of the core investment areas. ”
At the same time, the investment strategy analyzes in detail the key materials of new energy vehicles, power batteries, lithium batteries, energy storage, hydrogen fuel cells and other related fields, and gives a pre-judgment of the compound annual growth rate. And give the main line of layout, as well as the leading enterprises in various subdivisions.
From the key points of the investment strategy given by the broker, we can see a problem: the trend has not changed, the track has changed. The most intuitive performance is that among the investment companies given by the brokerage, only BYD has an oem. Some people may retort that it is because the "new forces" are not listed in China, and if they are listed, they will certainly be recommended. The key is that from the perspective of the strategy of securities companies, in the long run, the industry - energy changes, the medium-term direction - intelligent electrification, short-term focus on enterprises - investment opportunities in subdivisions (head enterprises).
Although this is a brokerage company's 2022 investment strategy for ordinary investors, it can be seen that investors are shifting the track from the downstream to the upstream of new energy vehicles. On the whole, the leading position of the main engine factory is still consolidated, because the development trend of new energy vehicles still depends on leading enterprises. But the question is, can just rely on a few or even a dozen "new force" car-making enterprises that have just sold more than 10,000 yuan a month, can drive the entire industrial transformation and upgrading to make breakthroughs? The answer is no, and we should rely on the joint efforts of "new forces" + "traditional forces".
Therefore, when the head of the "new force" recently expressed its position, the main view of the media industry was: "The car is a long-distance run, not a moment." From another point of view, although some "new forces" may still think of themselves as industry disruptors, whether from the performance of investment institutions or from the media point of view, they have been merged with traditional car companies.
In short, after the aura fades, the standard for measuring "new forces" and "traditional forces" in the future is getting closer and closer. So how long can the days of high-profile sales growth on the one hand and crazy burning money on the other side continue? With the transfer of investment tracks, how many investment institutions are willing to support the "new forces" to build cars?
The above is a family statement, welcome to criticize.
(Image source: Internet)