Written by | Zhao Libo
The history of the late Qing Dynasty was in chaos, but there were also some people who were more sober and had a profound prejudgment of the situation, and today he was a wise man and a deep contemplative, but those who seemed today still have many earth-shattering remarks that at that time could only be silenced in private notes.
Zhao Liewen in this article can be regarded as one of the most far-sighted intellectuals in the late Qing Dynasty, which makes people feel that history is sometimes not like smoke.
Zhao Liewen (1832) was born in 1832, the character Huifu, and the number of Nengjing residents was born in the Jiangnan Reading Gate of the official eunuch.
His sixth ancestor, Zhao Shenqiao, was a kangxi nine-year jinshi who served as the left capital yushi and hubu shangshu during the Kangxi period. His father, Zhao Renji, died within a few months of his arrival in Hubei, so Zhao Liewen's childhood life was not happy.
Before the age of sixteen, Zhao Liewen studied with a master, and then fell from the family road, so he taught himself under the guidance of his relatives and friends. He was extensively exposed to various cultural knowledge, especially in Buddhism, Yixue, Yixue, military, history, politics, and economics, so he became a leading guest among many of Zeng Guofan's staff and worshiped Zeng Guofan as a teacher.
From the eighth year of Xianfeng (1858) to the fifteenth year of Guangxu (1889), spanning thirty-two years, it records the important course of Zhao Liewen's life from the age of twenty-seven to fifty-eight and the important events of that chaotic and complicated chaotic world.
In addition, Zhao Liewen made detailed records about the Qing Dynasty's dynastic politics, national history, anecdotes, water transportation, salt affairs, river works, and donations, as well as the Opium War and the Anglo-French alliance. In addition, Zhao Liewen recorded in detail the private chat and interaction with Zeng Guofan, the exchange of views between the two sides on major issues of concern, and thus also wrote down the unique prediction of Zhao Liewen, a staff member of the troubled world, on the current situation.
In particular, in late August of the eleventh year of Xianfeng, Zhao Liewen entered the shogunate for the second time and submitted a ten thousand words proposal to Zeng Guofan, which gave a clear prediction of the foreign situation at that time, and it was this foresight that profoundly influenced Zeng Guofan's later initiatives to vigorously advocate the foreign affairs movement. In addition to the view of the current situation, but also put forward detailed countermeasures for several major problems facing the overall situation at that time, which aroused the great attention of Zeng Guofan.
For example, when the Taiping Army was the most powerful, he asserted that the Taiping Army was not the biggest threat, "Foreigners, political cultivation, national governance, and the people's strength are rich and strong." Everyone is hard-working, competitive and ashamed of being inferior to others, these Westerners have a political and popular sentiment toward China, dangerous and obstructive customs, a plot today, a statement tomorrow, consider things only fear is not clear, observe things only fear is not subtle, collect our cultural classics, translate and disseminate, conscientiously, never interrupted. Zhao Liewen concluded: "Their ambitions are not small, and there is no more serious disaster for the country." ”
Zhao Liewen then concluded: "The main reason why China is so weak is to advocate virtual writing and learn to use cumbersome and harsh etiquette, while foreign parties should be concise and practical. It seems that the general trend in the future is that Providence will "open the Liuhe".
Zhao Liewen's foresight is very clear, that is, in the future, to achieve the full connection of the universe and space, in the current fashionable words, it is the concept of "global integration", which was tantamount to a groundbreaking theory at that time.
Finally, Zhao Liewen said that foreigners are not aliens beyond human beings. Nor is the policy approach a singular art, and as long as we use it in reverse, it will certainly have an effect. After the outbreak of the Second Opium War, when the Xianfeng Emperor Canghuang went north to the summer resort, and the whole country was shocked, Zhao Liewen also recorded his views on the time when the capital was to be moved to Xi'an: "Beijing has heard that it has made peace with the discussion, and it has not yet been harmonious at the time, and the Yi chieftain wants to see King Gong, because the fire is in the Ming Garden, the palace is destroyed, and he will want to garrison Kyoto as promised." The car is still in Rehe, and the court wants to move the capital to Xi'an to avoid it. However, France has a minister to the minister, and all the states have it, but if they want to inform the customs and state affairs, it is not malicious at first, such as the European Russia and britain and France feud, and the military affairs are over, that is, they place each other's ministers, and China is not alone. Zhao Liewen can be said to be quite insightful about the Western diplomatic system, at the same time, he analyzed that the Western army in Beijing is only a few thousand people, and Beijing's army "forbidden brigades are like clouds, why should we be afraid of this, and it is incomprehensible to move the capital to the next policy, and he wants to garrison the country, with an empty city, how can he be confused?" I can go, Kou can also go, Xi'an is evil in heaven? Finally, he lamented that "the imperial court is worried about this, and it is indignant and talking." "The Diary of Being Able to Live quietly"
Paying attention to current affairs and taking the lead in judging foreign situations, Zhao Liewen has always been at the forefront of the intellectuals of the Qing Dynasty, so his vision is unique and his vision is insightful.
During the handling of the "Tianjin Teaching Case," Zeng Guofan suffered tremendous pressure and grievances, was once again scolded as a "traitor, and so on, and was smashed on the plaque hanging in the Beijing Huguang Guild Hall that read, "The Thirty-eighth Jinshi in the Daoguang Pengshu Section Examination, the Forty-second in the Third Rank of the Temple Examination, and the TongjinShi Origin." He himself repeatedly said that the case was "too soft" to the outside world, "guilty in his heart", "ashamed of the outside world, guilty gods" After undergoing this strong blow, the Qing court asked him to return to the post of governor of Liangjiang, and died of illness in Nanjing a year and a half later.
However, Zeng Guofan's handling of this matter was not a big mistake from the current point of view, and just as Zeng Guofan returned to Nanjing, Zhao Liewen, who was then the governor of Yizhou in Hebei Province, came to see him off, and the two exchanged views on the incident. Zhao Liewen wrote in his diary that day: "The teacher told him about the matter and humbled himself because he was not good at handling it. First of all, the teacher defended the foreigners without digging their eyes and dissecting their hearts, and then played the music, and then there was an uproar at home and abroad, and even those who jointly wrote a letter to slander them. Yu asked If si had a test? Teacher's words: Those who have personally heard about the troublemakers after arriving in Tianjin, if they have the slightest evidence, they are allowed to do it, but the words are wandering and unreasonable, and they are poor, they blame each other, so they cannot break the hearts of outsiders, knowing that they will violate the qing consultation, but they have to. ”
At that time, the main problem was that public opinion lacked understanding of foreign countries, so it caused a bad reaction after the "dissecting the heart and digging the eyes" thing was completely rumored. After listening to Zeng Guofan's account, Zhao Liewen told his own opinion: "However, although it is fierce, it will be thought that there must be nothing. The Catholic Church is inherently unreasonable, why should it eat the flesh of man, be like a jackal, make the fruit have it, and those who obey the Taixi will not be able to wing more than a hundred countries, and can they all be willing to do evil? Chinese do not seek truth, pretend to be self-proclaimed, and when the border is opened, they are helpless. Then Zhao Liewen said that he was afraid that the teacher was forced by the pressure of public opinion to shake the initial opinion, so I specially wrote to you, insisting on distinguishing between twists and turns, and then I was relieved to see the teacher's second book. In the end, Zhao Liewen concluded: "If you are afraid of the affairs of the world, you are afraid that you will not have the concentration and insight in your chest, if it is clear whether it is right or wrong, what will the foreign rumors be counted?" "When foreign affairs were unknown to the whole country at that time, Zhao Liewen was truly aware of it and had an extremely thorough vision.
It was based on advanced consciousness and unique vision that Zhao Liewen became the first person to accurately foresee the collapse of the Qing Dynasty.
On the summer evening of the sixth year of Tongzhi, after Zhao Liewen gave the sick Zeng Guofan some improvement in treating his illness, the two began to chat. Zeng Guofan said with great concern: "As the people from Beijing said, the weather in Yundumen is very bad, and the case of open fire to carry out the battle occurs from time to time, and the city is full of beggars, even women are naked and have no pants, and the people are exhausted, so I am afraid that there will be changes, so why not?" ”
Zhao Liewen calmly replied: "The world's public security has been unified for a long time, and it is bound to be tamed to the point of division." However, the Lord's power is heavy, the atmosphere is not open, if it is not a rotten heart, it will not be a situation of disintegration. In the intensity of the day, the calamity of the other day must first be completely overthrown, and the rear state has no master, and the people govern themselves, and they will not be able to survive for fifty years. ”
That is to say, the "world" has been governing for a long time now, and too many corruption problems have occurred, but because the emperor has always been very authoritative, the roots of the Great Qing have not rotted first, so there will be no situation of falling apart now. But according to his estimation, the great catastrophe in the future will be that the Qing Dynasty will first collapse, and then there will be a situation of fragmentation and division; he further judged that this would happen in about fifty years.
Zeng Guofan was surprised and asked, "But when you move south?" "Can the meaning be as peaceful as the Jin Dynasty and the Northern Song Dynasty?"
Zhao Liewen replied decisively: "I am afraid that Lu Shen may not be able to meet Jin and Song Ye." ”
Zeng Guofan was so disappointed after hearing this that Zeng Guofan said in despair: "I look forward to death day and night, and I am worried about the fall of Zong Qi."
A few days later, Zeng Guofan still did not want to believe Zhao Liewen's assertion, and deliberately asked him to extend this topic again, hoping that Zhao Liewen would retract this point of view. Zeng Guofan said that the emperor of this dynasty is very virtuous, that is, if he is diligent at the end of the government, he must do it on the same day, that is, he can cross the ancients. Another example is that after the great chaos, the levy is reduced, and the reimbursement is waived on the day of exhaustion, and the number of them is not a move of national subjugation. Zhao Liewen still insisted on his own opinions and explained: "After three generations, on the strength or weakness, no matter the benevolence and violence; on the situation, regardless of Deze." At the same time, he listed zhuge liang's assistance to the lord's exhaustion, bowing to the best of his ability still could not avoid the fall, after the Southern Song Dynasty, seeking treatment was quite earnest, and after all, he was not an opponent of the Jin Dynasty. Hearing this, Zeng Guofan was still unwilling and put forward a new idea, hoping that Zhao Liewen would attach importance to the "wisdom" of Prince Gong of the current dynasty and the "power" of Empress Dowager Cixi, so as to hope that they could avoid the end of "sucking the heart" and "fundamentally upsetting the servants". Zhao insisted that I had seen a small photograph of Prince Gong and thought that Yi Chen's "wisdom and faith are also small and wise", and Cixi's "power" will make her more vulnerable to deception. The so-called "not in the deeds in the real thing", Cixi's assertion is formalism after all, not really pragmatic.
Looking at Zhao Liewen's prediction of several great intellectuals and the world, people can clearly see that he stood on the commanding heights of history and used a very speculative philosophical vision to study the foresight, which can be called the farthest one in that era.