After Tesla fell to $300 billion, The Market Value of Rivian, who is "known as" Tesla's killer, is close to the highest point, and there is no trend to stop falling.
So, is The Rivian valuation too expensive? Or is it the "wrong kill" of the capital market?
On December 17, Rivian released its first financial report since its listing, according to its financial report, Rivian's third-quarter revenue was $1 million and net loss was $1.233 billion. Compared with the same period last year, the loss margin has expanded significantly.
As for the revenue of 1 million yuan in the third quarter, the company delivered 11 R1T models to the first customers.
In fact, when we return to the consideration of new energy vehicle companies from the outlet, it is nothing more than the three dimensions of delivery, technology and battery. At present, no matter from which point of view, in fact, these new energy vehicle companies can not support the current valuation, but the global outlet has blown to the new energy vehicle, so capital is willing to relay.
But we just ignored one reason, starting from the big mobility field, the valuation of Uber and other travel companies around the world has also been blown up, but what is the outcome?
Who else thinks the business of big travel is a good business? What other capital is willing to give them a super premium?
If the case in the field of large travel is not very clear, then we may wish to take a look at the field of shared bicycles, from Mobike to Ofo, two years to shape an outlet, bicycle + Internet mix let them get a new term - "shared bicycles", so the bubble was quickly blown up, the result is that ofo's deposit has not been refunded so far, and Mobike was acquired by meituan.
Similarly, capital will not continue to bet on shared bicycles at the moment.
Then, a shared space emerged, if it were not for Son Zhengyi's heavy bet on WeWork, then the shared space would be "cool" faster than sharing bicycles.
Obviously, Son has changed from an investor role to a manager role, and most importantly, WeWor's valuation has shrunk significantly. In 2019, when WeWork announced that it would seek an IPO at a valuation of $47 billion, its market capitalization remained at $5.7 billion. I have to say that after every outlet, it is always the investor who is injured who is the last stick.
At present, in fact, I think that the current situation of new energy vehicles is not much different from these previous outlets, although the prospects are relatively broad.
In fact, since its listing, Rivian's market value has climbed all the way, surpassing a series of established car companies such as Volkswagen and General Motors, and then becoming the world's third largest car company after Toyota and Tesla, which is unreasonable in itself. Because the threshold of electric vehicles is actually not as high as imagined, we look at Weilai, Ideal, Xiaopeng and other car companies, they were only founded for six or seven years, how deep can their accumulation be?
Traditional car companies can stand in the world for so many years, which is not through thousands of hammers, has a deep technical barrier? Therefore, the current valuation bubble of global new energy vehicles is very large.
According to Rivian's third-quarter earnings report, it has no revenue in itself, but its expenses are still growing, and the financial report also shows that Rivian's research and development expenses in the first three quarters increased by $630 million year-on-year.
Rivian also said in the earnings report that additional losses are expected due to the increase in operating expenses and capital expenditures of the company due to the expansion of automobile production and delivery, which may delay the ability to realize profitability and positive operating cash flow. In addition, the company expects that these future investments will require significant external debt and equity financing.
Earlier, Rivian also announced that it would expand its manufacturing operations, investing $5 billion to build a second plant in Georgia, USA. It is reported that the plant is scheduled to be put into operation in 2024 with an annual production capacity of 400,000 vehicles.
Taken together, Rivian can't afford such a valuation in every dimension, and although its market value has fallen by more than $60 billion from its high point, it is still not the end.
Miraculously, many Wall Street investment banks have maintained an "overweight" rating for Rivian's performance, but we must be clear about what the rationale for buying is.