Good man Chang An Jun original work
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Last month, Yu Chengdong made a public statement, announcing that Huawei mobile phones will be fully returned in 2023.
I believe that if there is a practical basis for this sentence, it will have some impact on domestic friends, foreign counterparts and upstream enterprises in the industrial chain, and even the United States, which personally "sealed" Huawei's mobile phone business, will also mutter secretly - "Is it that my forty-meter knife did not hack people to death?" ”
So a very important question comes: Why does Yu Chengdong dare to say this?
This article only provides a simple analysis of the possibility of supporting the full return of Huawei mobile phones.
First: The premise of Huawei's full return of mobile phones is to solve the core problem, that is, the chip supply problem.
There are two chip solutions to choose from: the first is to use a Kirin chip, which is the most likely; the second is a Qualcomm chip, if Huawei adopts this solution, then in the short term, it may be able to give Huawei mobile phone business a continuation, but in a strategic sense, it is tantamount to drinking and quenching thirst, in terms of Huawei's style of doing things, this plan will only be considered as a supplement to mainstream chips as before.
Then with the Kirin chip, there are also different solutions.
First, as before, HiSilicon designed and then handed over to a chip foundry for OEM, which is the most likely in my opinion.
Although TSMC will not give Huawei OEM under the constraints of U.S. law, but do not forget SMIC, SMIC is currently in the fight against the 7nm mass production problem, in the two consecutive years of economic work conferences have called for the focus on solving the chip problem, scientific research resources will be invisibly allocated to this lot, I tend to think that SMIC to overcome the 5nm time schedule will surprise many people, perhaps now SMIC is in the multi-line research, 7nm technology research and 5nm at the same time.
As one of the most concerned companies in China for high-end chip technology, Huawei may know some research progress.
The second solution is that Huawei designs its own production.
Although the country did not give positive assistance to Huawei's sanctions, the difficulties encountered by Huawei and the connection between this difficulty and the country's industrial upgrading and economic transformation were later reflected in the 14th Five-Year Plan. Judging from the preferential treatment that Huawei received in terms of domestic policies later, it is clear that the state will also give Huawei help in scientific research, and the core of cooperation here is chip technology.
Huawei has previously built a chip factory with mature processes in Zhangjiang, but it is also possible that Huawei has set up a team to tackle advanced process chips, and this team has overcome important technical difficulties, so as to give Yu Chengdong a timetable.
In these two solutions, I prefer the former, because Huawei itself does not have the energy and should not try to solve all the problems in the industrial chain, and even if Huawei builds a chip factory, it will inevitably become the target of public criticism. Therefore, there is a high probability that the cooperation with SMIC has achieved technical results, so that Yu Chengdong dares to "make a big fuss".
Second: the timing of this news is very important, and the timing of "Huawei's full return of mobile phones" is also very clever
Yu Chengdong said such a thing at this time, and it is also necessary for Huawei's consumer business to remove "whether it will really be realized".
In the third quarterly report, Guo Ping, Huawei's rotating chairman, summed up the performance, "The overall operating results are in line with expectations, the To C business has been greatly affected, and the To B business has performed stably." Although the wording is bland, in fact, Huawei's consumer business has encountered a great crisis.
As we all know, Huawei last September chip was cut off, since then the share of mobile phones has declined, for this Huawei actively expand the second development curve, high-profile into the field of smart cars, but a year has passed, smart car business has not been as expected to Bring improvement to Huawei's consumer business, according to the data, China's main sales of Cyris cars are only 6,000 vehicles, far lower than the expected 300,000 vehicles, and what is worse is that domestic car manufacturers have HI (Huawei) for Huawei Inside) strategy is not cold, and the BOSS of SAIC Motor has publicly called out Huawei's automatic driving cooperation - "Unacceptable." It became the soul and I became the body. ”
New business is difficult to develop, and old business is struggling. Whether inside or outside Huawei's consumer business sector, its voice and influence are declining.
And Yu Chengdong's words are undoubtedly to convey a message to his team and to consumers in the outside world, providing a confidence that huawei mobile phones will return in 2023 and everything will be fine.
Here Huawei also thanks the "contention" of domestic friends - the share it gave up to Apple. It is difficult for this performance not to regain Huawei's confidence and to let consumers regenerate expectations.
In 2023, it is not said that the end of the year is still the beginning of the year, but now it is the end of 2021, so subconsciously it has become the return of Huawei next year. Coupled with the fact that the person who said this is Yu Chengdong, who "dares to stand up the Flag, but rarely reneges on his word", the effect of this sentence is better than many explanations of how to solve the problem of mobile phone chips.
Third: Huawei mobile phones must be fully returned, not only to solve the hardware problem, but also to solve at least two major problems
Of the two problems, the first is naturally the software problem.
We should not forget that Google is also involved in the containment of Huawei, Android systems and Google services will inevitably no longer be considered when Huawei mobile phones comeback, Hongmeng will be used as Huawei's independent operating system to complete the replacement of Android. In fact, the Hongmeng system has two choices, one choice is to become a closed-loop ecosystem like Apple, and the other choice is the open source ecology of Android, and it is clear that Huawei Hongmeng has chosen the More Difficult to Subvert Android System as the challenge object.
After the hardware problem is solved, Hongmeng must first combine software and hardware to make its own products have strong recognition and excellent user experience, which is the core of Huawei Hongmeng's possible subversion of Android.
From now on, Hongmeng is still primitive, and the shackles of hardware problems will also affect the strength of Hongmeng and Android to compete for the share of the system field, for a simple example, domestic mobile phone manufacturers are reluctant to test the water Hongmeng, then who else can be counted on? The only way is that consumers really agree with Hongmeng, and Hongmeng can be one level higher than Android in terms of experience.
It's hard, but I'm afraid There's no shortcut for Huawei.
In addition to the software problem, another problem is the interference of political forces upstream in the industrial chain.
This kind of force is actually equivalent to an irresistible factor, and it is easy to understand that the development of good is jointly confronted by competitors, but it is easy to understand that one country will arbitrarily use the sanctioning force on a certain enterprise entity out of jealousy of another country, and this hegemonic behavior is undoubtedly a disaster from heaven from a commercial point of view.
After Huawei mobile phone solves the problem of software and hardware, it is bound to take a step or layout overseas, then in this environment of great power political confrontation, Huawei is a pawn of last resort, so how can it achieve "my life is up to me"?
This is a very test of wisdom. Or a test of luck.
If this helpless situation is to be completely changed, then the only premise is that we will change from a technology importer to a technology exporter, standing on the technological high ground and looking down on all sentient beings, and naturally have nothing to fear – just like the United States in these years.
Having said all this, in fact, I want to say that the problems and difficulties encountered by Huawei, all Chinese companies that are interested in breaking the Western technology blockade have encountered or are encountering, which is a sign that more and more similar things have appeared, which can only mean that the science and technology war has reached the stage of close hand-to-hand combat.
Walking a hundred miles is half a mile and a half, and the last ten miles are often the most difficult to walk. But the difference between strong and weak is also reflected in this.
Here, we pay tribute to all industry enterprises that are at the forefront of science and technology like Huawei, and pay tribute to all those who have spared no effort for the rise of national science and technology.
I also sincerely hope that 2023 will see a full return of Huawei mobile phones.