Author: It changes with fate
1. Valuation model: valuation of equity debt enterprises
Divided into two parts, first of all, qualitative, that is, to find the logic of valuation, that is, to determine the valuation model; secondly, to quantitatively, find the range, magnitude, and accurate value of the valuation;
The valuation model we use for soy sauce condiments is the valuation of the [equity bond type] business model, which is derived from Buffett, which means that they have the nature of bonds, can protect principal and interest, and at the same time have the nature of stocks and can achieve continuous growth. Representatives are Maotai in liquor, Coca-Cola in soft drinks, soy sauce condiments, etc.
This type of enterprise has a weak cycle, weak explosiveness and strong sustainability, so it is more suitable for the valuation analysis of pepty-to-earnings ratio PE(ttm), and because the profit margin and gross profit margin are relatively stable, it is also suitable for the valuation of P&P ratio PS(ttm).
2. Valuation of two indicators: PEttm (price-to-earnings ratio) and PSttm (price-to-sales ratio)
1) Haitian valuation
PE(ttm) valuation
Haitian's net profit in 2020 is 6.4 billion, and in 2021, according to a 10% growth rate, it is a net profit of 7.04 billion;
The average ten-year valuation is 49.26, the standard deviation of doubling is 69.14, 29.39, and the current PE(ttm) is 79, and there is still a lot of room for correction from the reasonable mean of 29.26 and the lower limit of the reasonable valuation of 29.39;
The reasonable valuation at the end of 2021 is 49.26·70.4=346.8 billion, and the share capital is 4.2 billion, so the corresponding stock price is 3468/42=82.57; the current stock price is about 120, (120-82.57)/120=31.2%, in other words, at present, Haitian Flavor Industry still has more than 31.2% of the room for correction, so as to have investment value. In fact, according to the current situation, even after Haitian raises prices, it is difficult to achieve a 10% increase in net profit this year. So there is basically no investment value above 82.57.
The valuation of 29.39 times in the bottom area corresponds to the market capitalization of 206.9 billion, the corresponding stock price is 49.26, and this correction space is 59%, and it can be said that it is the bottom of the valuation when it reaches here.
The decline in the company's stock price is divided into killing valuation, killing performance, killing logic, the above only considers the killing valuation, and has not considered the killing performance, that is, Davis double killing, and has not considered the problem of killing logic. Therefore, Haitian Flavor Industry currently has no investment value, let alone bottom value.
PS(ttm) valuation
Haitian's operating income in 2020 is 22.8 billion, and in 2021, according to the growth rate of 10%, then the revenue in 2021 is 25 billion;
The average ten-year PS(ttm) of Haitian was 12.27, and the standard deviation of doubling was 18.48 and 6.05, respectively;
According to the average calculation of 12.27, then the reasonable valuation at the end of 2021 is 12.27 · 250 = 306.8 billion, 4.2 billion share capital, the corresponding stock price is 73 yuan, the current stock price is 120, the retracement range is 120-73/ 120 = 39.2%, from the perspective of price-to-sales ratio, there is at least 39.2% of the correction space to have investment value.
According to the price-to-sales ratio of 6.05, then the corresponding market value is 6.05· 250 = 151.2 billion, corresponding to the stock price of 36, the current PS(ttm) is 21.21, the corresponding pullback of 70%.
Therefore, at the end of 2021, the reasonable market value of Haitian Flavor Industry is between 306.8 billion and 346.8 billion, corresponding to a stock price of 73-82.5, above this range, there is no investment value. The corresponding valuation bottom area is between 150 billion and 200 billion.
2) Zhongju High-tech Valuation
In 2020, the net profit of Zhongju Gaoxin is 890 million, and in 2021, it is 623 million according to the growth rate of -30% (the growth rate in the first half of 2021 is -38.5%, and in the second half of the year, with the increase in product prices and the decline in raw material prices, marginal improvement is expected),
The average pee(ttm) for the ten-year period is 43.27, plus or minus double the standard deviation of 54.1, 32.44, and the current PE(ttm) is 39.55;
According to the average value of 43.27, the corresponding reasonable valuation is about 43.27·6.23 = about 27 billion, and the corresponding stock price is about 33.90; the current stock price is 35.50, so it is still at a reasonable valuation, not overvalued, and in fact it is still undervalued.
Calculated by doubling the standard deviation of 32.44, the corresponding market value is 20.2 billion yuan, corresponding to the stock price of 25.35 yuan;
PS(ttm) valuation
In 2020, the revenue of Zhongju High-tech is 51.23, and in 2021, it is calculated according to the growth rate of -15% (the growth rate of -9.5% in the first half of 2021), then the corresponding revenue at the end of 2021 is 4.355 billion yuan.
The average PS(ttm) of the 10-year medium torch is 5.12, the standard deviation (reasonable interval) of the addition or subtraction is 7.45 and 2.78, and the current PS(ttm) is 5.79;
According to the average value of 5.12 times, the reasonable market value at the end of 2021 is 22.3 billion, corresponding to a stock price of 27.97, and the current stock price is about 35.5;
According to the lower valuation limit of 2.78, the reasonable market value at the end of 2021 is 12.1 billion; because Zhongju Gaoxin has 1500 acres of land of great value, the valuation is about 15 billion, and there will be 150 cash inflows when it is sold, so it is impossible for the company to fall below the net present value, so we judge that the valuation of Zhongju Gaoxin should be above 20 billion.
Correction of net profit: We believe that according to the PS valuation is more reasonable, because the profit decline is far greater than the revenue decline rate, the main reason is that the price of raw materials is rising, the cost is high, the current product price increase can hedge off some of the costs, in addition, the price of raw materials is difficult to rise sharply, has gone down again; in addition, with the expansion of revenue, the scale effect increases, the net profit margin will increase, and the net profit margin will not only recover, but also further improve on the basis of 19% in 2020. Therefore, we think it is reasonable to calculate the net profit according to the net profit margin of 20% and the revenue of 4.355 billion, so the corresponding net profit is actually 870 million, according to the average valuation of 43.27, the corresponding market value is 37.6 billion. Therefore, Zhongju Gaoxin is actually underestimated.
3) Qianhe flavor industry
Qianhe Flavor Industry is more special, because of its expansion priority, has not yet achieved the breakeven point, so there is a situation of increasing income and not increasing profits, so the PE valuation method is useless. Use PS instead, and then set a reasonable profit margin parameter.
Revenue in 2020 is 1.693 billion, and in 2021, according to the revenue growth rate of 10% (10.82% growth rate in the first half of 2021), then the revenue in 2021 is 18.62'
The average value of Qianhe Flavor Industry's 10-year PS(ttm) is 9.14, plus or minus a standard deviation of 12.49 and 5.8, respectively; the corresponding market value is 18.62·9.14=17 billion and 10.8 billion, and the current market value of Qianhe is 16.9 billion, which basically belongs to a reasonable range.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="35" > Conclusion: At present, Haitian Flavor Industry is in a serious overvaluation stage, and there is still 30%-70% of the decline space from the investment value, while Zhongju High-tech and Qianhe Flavor Industry are in the reasonable valuation area. However, the sharp decline in Haitian flavor industry will inevitably fall synchronously with Zhongju High-tech and Qianhe Flavor Industry, so Zhongju and Qianhe will also fall, but the decline should not be as large as the decline of Haitian. </h1>
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="36" > which is actually the entire track from the previous Davis double-click to the Davis double</h1> kill