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Nowadays, artificial intelligence has penetrated into all aspects of our lives, from AlphaGo playing with humans and "defeating humans", to machines deriving sequels with fake realities derived from J.K. Rowling's inspiration, small to eating, large to marriage, from literature to mathematics, the shadow of artificial intelligence is everywhere.
Thinking about it this way, it is indeed extremely frightening.
Can't help but worry that one day in the future, artificial intelligence will replace us and become the master of the world?
In July 2017, Ma Yun, a leader in China's technology industry, mentioned in a speech at the Shenzhen Innovation Expo that in the next two decades, we will face such a world, a large number of industries will be replaced by artificial intelligence, and 50% of the work will disappear from this world, just like the driver replaced the former coachman, and the future artificial intelligence will also replace today's driver.
The lives of ordinary people will become more and more difficult, and creative people will grab most of the resources of society.
If these industries are replaced, where will those who depend on them for their livelihoods go? Which industries are most likely to be replaced?
Based on the data system of Cambridge university researchers michael Osborne and Carl Frey, the BBC analysed the "probability of obsolescence" of 365 occupations over the next 20 years.
Although the sample they analyzed did not cover the whole world, its results are of great significance, and by analyzing these probabilities, we can draw two such conclusions.
If a person's job for a living includes these 3 types of skills, the probability that he will be replaced in the future is relatively small.
1. Social coordination ability, with strong human relationship attributes.
2. Take altruism as the core value, such as charity and community help workers.
3. Creativity and aesthetics.
At the same time, if a person's current job attributes include such skills, the probability of being replaced by artificial intelligence is very large.
First, there is no technical content, after simple training can be mastered skills.
2. Repetitive manual labor.
Third, the work space is small, sitting in the cubicle room, not hearing about the world.
Obviously, simple repetitive, mechanical jobs are most likely to be replaced by artificial intelligence, and these jobs are widely distributed in the service industry, transportation industry, and agriculture, and many positions in these three major industries may disappear in the future.
All of this makes us extremely afraid, but in fact, fear does not change any facts. Artificial intelligence has replaced certain jobs, just as drivers replaced coachmen, and mail replaced letter writing, it all marked the progress of our human society.
The disappearance of some occupations also means the emergence of other occupations, but these occupations will no longer be mastered through simple training skills as in the past, which is bound to require practitioners to pay a considerable time and cost to learn.
In fact, many artificial intelligences have matured now, but they have not yet achieved popularization. My guess is that the first is the cost consideration; the second is the employment consideration. Any single slight change can affect the changes in society as a whole.
For example, Siri has existed for many years, which means that artificial intelligence has been able to replace human customer service, and people's satisfaction with Siri's work is not low.
But at present, artificial customer service is still a huge existence group, but there is no popularization at present, and it will not be popular in the future?
In the future, it will be inevitable that artificial intelligence will replace most of the repetitive jobs. We must be prepared before this day comes. At present, we are still in an advantage over artificial intelligence, as long as we act actively, it is not difficult to seize a favorable position.
However, as Liu Cixin said in "The Three-Body Problem": weakness and ignorance are not obstacles to survival, arrogance is.
After thousands of years of evolution, human beings have become the top of the food chain, so there is always an indomitable arrogance in human beings, and we always unconsciously feel that we are superior to sentient beings and will not be replaced, which is actually an undesirable and dangerous idea.
In the era of change, each of us must learn to think of danger in times of peace and be ready to fight at any time.
First of all, cultivate your own irreplaceability.
Machines and humans have a fundamental difference, although in some areas, machines have advantages that humans cannot surpass, but in some areas of emotion and creativity, machines cannot replace humans, so humans have to think about how we want to seize absolute advantages in these areas.
Strategy 1: Do fine work in one area
Robots can do a lot of things in place of humans, such as cooking and writing stories and chatting, but these behaviors of robots are implemented through programs written by programmers, and it cannot empathize and adapt to changes like humans.
Robots can cook, but even if the food they make is perfect, it is a little less human, and people will feel that they are emotionally deficient.
Robots can write, but they will never be able to live up to the level of Leo Tolstoy. The machine cannot achieve personalization and refinement without changing at this stage, and these are our opportunities.
Strategy two: Improve adaptability
Bernard said that what constitutes the biggest obstacle to our learning is what is known, not what is unknown.
Psychological research shows that when people face different sources of information, they rarely use reason to identify and think, and most of them will retreat to their own prejudices out of self-protection psychology, because this is the safest and easiest way to do it.
The reason why many people always stand still cannot achieve a qualitative leap.
Often it is because we can't get rid of old thinking, can't face the occurrence of change, and are always immersed in past achievements and don't want to come out, which is why we seem powerless in the face of new things.
It's not that we can't do it, it's that we can't. But we can deceive ourselves, but reality does not allow you to deceive.
If you don't change, you'll just have to wait to be eliminated. So don't immerse yourself too much in your own world, and do your best to improve your adaptability, so that you can cover up the water.
Strategy Three: Lifelong Learning
If a person wants to achieve something in any era, then he must learn lifelong learning. The road is not only lonely, even bitter, but also a long process.
To borrow a fashionable phrase: to endure loneliness, you can keep the prosperity. Times change rapidly, and if a person does not maintain the ability to learn at any time, he will definitely be eliminated, there is no doubt.
In the future when artificial intelligence is about to replace ordinary labor, knowledge will become the basic resource on which human beings live, and if they want to be eliminated, they must be accumulated uninterruptedly.
This is also the fundamental difference between humans and artificial intelligence, as long as people's knowledge ability is individual efforts, it will definitely show an upward trend, and artificial intelligence, how it was set up in the beginning, can only be like that for a lifetime.
- The End -
Author | Tommy
Edit | Rain
The First Psychological Writing Group | A group of young people who like to look up at the stars
参考资料：Vogel, D. L., & Wester, S. R. (2003). To seek help or not to seek help: The risks of self-disclosure. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 50(3), 351