If the world is unified, no matter how to rest and recuperate, it is a manifestation of the country's strength and people's prosperity, if the world has not yet been unified, rest and recuperation is an effective reason for victory in the war, but the premise is that the armament cannot be abandoned.
The State of Qi, one of the Seven Heroes of the Late Warring States Period, did not choose to participate in and resist the war against the Qin State to unify the world, and chose to recuperate, and finally the six eastern kingdoms were destroyed by the Qin State one by one, and the State of Qi was the last.
During the Three Kingdoms period, the world has not yet been unified, if Zhuge Liang of Shu Han chooses to recuperate, it will directly affect the situation under the world, and judging what the future of Shu Han will be, it depends on how the international and domestic situation at that time develops, and what the future of Shu Han will be, to a large extent, depends on the attitude of Wei Guo.
If Zhuge Liang chooses to recuperate, then it is necessary to compare the national conditions of the three countries, compared with the population of the three countries on the eve of the fall of Shu Han in 263 AD, the total population of Shu Han is 940,000, the total population of Eastern Wu is 2.3 million, and the total population of Cao Wei is 4.3 million, for example, if Shu Han rests for 15 years, it will increase the population by 200,000, then Eastern Wu will increase the population by 490,000, and Cao Wei will increase by 900,000.
In the era of cold weapons, population was the primary productive force, if the Shu Han increased the population of 200,000 tons will increase grain production by 10,000 tons, Eastern Wu will increase production by 24,500 tons, and Cao Wei will increase grain production by 45,000 tons.
No matter how Shu Han recuperated, his biggest enemy Cao Wei was 4.5 times that of Shu Han, you are developing, people are also developing, Zhuge Liang Northern Expedition although itself also has losses, but for Cao Wei, the loss is also several times that of Shu Han.
The basic plate of Shu Han was placed there, no matter how to recuperate, it would never surpass Cao Wei, if Zhuge Liang wanted to make a breakthrough, he must take advantage of Cao Wei's development and growth, looking for opportunities to break through the Northern Expedition, in case the opportunity came?
There are only two reasons for the demise of a country, one is internal reasons, the other is external reasons, Shu Han under Zhuge Liang's governance, even if the internal development of the three kingdoms is the most stable, Cao Wei and Eastern Wu internal rebellions one after another, and Shu Han did not have an open internal struggle, which is the greatest success of Zhuge Liang's governance.
Looking at the external environment, if Zhuge Liang chooses to recuperate, I personally feel very much like the State of Qi in the late Warring States period, the difference is that the State of Qi has no famous generals, and the Shu Han has always had, but the Shu Han developed to the late stage, and the politics also began to be corrupt, and it was also close to the state of the State of Qi.
Zhuge Liang did not go north, Cao Wei would not gather heavy troops on the western border, he would focus on dealing with other separatist forces, such as Eastern Wu, Eastern Wu has always been Cao Wei's biggest enemy, if it is not Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition, whether Eastern Wu can withstand Cao Wei's attack alone, it is really unknown, if it can withstand, Eastern Wu's national strength will also be greatly depleted, if it cannot resist, Eastern Wu is likely to be crushed by Cao Wei, after all, in the absence of special intervention, strength is still the key reason for winning the war.
If Zhuge Liang did not go north, but chose to recuperate, Cao Wei, in addition to dealing with Eastern Wu, would also free his hands to clean up Xianbei in the northwest and Gongsun Yuan in Liaodong, in fact, Cao Wei did indeed do so after Zhuge Liang's death, the Northwest Xianbei strongman Ruby could be assassinated by Cao Wei in the year of Zhuge Liang's death, and Gongsun Yuan in Liaodong was pacified by Sima Yi a few years after Zhuge Liang's death, and these things would be advanced.
After Cao Wei finished cleaning up these opponents, he would also set his sights on Shu Han, and would still carry out a war to unify the world, Shu and Wei would sooner or later have a war, and when Shu Han developed to the late stage, after Zhuge Liang's death, when politics was corrupt, Cao Wei would then make a major southern expedition, and Shu Han could resist Cao Wei's attack? If not, the Shu Han would still perish.
The basic reason why Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition posed a considerable threat to Cao Wei was that in addition to Shu Han and Eastern Wu, there were some other external forces that were not completely pacified, mainly the Xianbei people, the Xiongnu, and Gongsun Yuan of Liaodong, Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition in addition to uniting with Eastern Wu, but also united these enemies of Cao Wei, so Cao Wei was in a situation of coping with on all sides and making enemies on all sides, and could not fully concentrate on dealing with an enemy, if Zhuge Liang did not go north, Cao Wei could concentrate on cleaning up the enemies one by one. When the day came, Shu Han was still destroyed.
In addition to the external threats of Cao Wei, Cao Wei's interior is not monolithic, after Cao Shuang and Sima Yi fought for power, they began to tear up, after the Sima family killed Cao Shuang and seized power, there were three Huainan rebellions, and the rebellions within Cao Wei were all available to Shu Han, if they blindly rested and did not know how to use the enemy's internal rebellion to carry out wars favorable to themselves, then the demise of Shu Han was still certain.
There is nothing wrong with recuperating, but it is necessary to look at the timing, Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition is a relatively harsh era of Cao Wei's external environment, Zhuge Liang used the Northern Expedition to consume Cao Wei's strength, so as to find opportunities to obtain benefits for Shu Han, good luck may be able to defeat Cao Wei and seize Guanzhong, bad luck can also plunder the population, rob materials, Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition is not wrong, recuperation is wrong.