Reasons for concern: medium and long-term, the supply tension is difficult to alleviate, the cost support is strong, and the price increase is expected to remain high.
1. Event-driven: On December 7, the domestic sucralose market price continued to climb, and the price of the main enterprises rose from 450,000 yuan / ton to near 480,000 yuan / ton, which was doubled from the beginning of the year. The market transaction price is slightly chaotic, the old single price ranges from 430,000-460,000 yuan / ton, and the new signing order gradually promotes the implementation of the new price.
2, sucralose: commonly known as sucralose, is a high-power sweetener. Sucralose is a derivative of pure natural product sucrose, the relative sweetness of sucrose changes with the concentration of the solution, it has a lightening effect on sour and salty taste, has a masking effect on astringent, bitter, wine and other tastes, and has a synergistic effect on spicy, milk and so on. Widely used in beverages, baked goods, preserves and so on.
(1) Supply: Affected by factors such as the Winter Olympics and the upgrading of winter safety and environmental protection inspections, the production of sucralose, the "two highs", has increased due to force majeure fluctuations, and the market supply tension is difficult to alleviate. Some enterprises in Hebei and Shandong said that with the Approaching Spring Festival and the Winter Olympics, there is no shortage of production suspension and production reduction possibilities in the later stage. In addition, some enterprises in Fujian said that there is a one-month annual maintenance plan around the Spring Festival. Therefore, it is expected that the supply of sucralose in the market will remain relatively tight until the end of the first quarter of next year.
(2) Demand: Entering most of the annual orders in December, the market inquiry atmosphere is high, coupled with the New Year's Day, Spring Festival and other holiday orders have begun to prepare, the demand support is relatively strong. In terms of traders, the current price is high, traders have greater financial pressure, generally hold a wait-and-see attitude, and market participation is gradually low.
(3) Cost: Since November, the price of basic raw materials has generally soared and fallen, and continued to decline slightly in early December. Cost pressures have eased. However, compared with the beginning of the year, the price of raw materials is still at a relatively high level, and the cost support is still strong.
(4) Exports: From May to October 2021, the export volume of sucralose continued to grow rapidly, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 30%. Judging from the situation in the third quarter, the export volume of sucralose in the third quarter was 2894.76 tons, a sharp increase of 48.48% year-on-year, reflecting strong overseas demand.
3, Jinhe Industry: the company's acesulfame and sucralose production capacity are the world's first, 12,000 tons and 0.8 million tons respectively. The company's annual output of 5,000 tons of sucralose has been put into trial production in December 2020. The company plans to lay out 30,000 tons of DMF products to provide raw materials for sucralose, and is expected to further reduce costs after completion.
(Baichuan Yingfu, Dongguan Securities)