French scholars believe that cyberspace may become the core of the "Cold War 2.0" competition

An article published on the website of the French newspaper Le Monde on November 3 said that cyberspace may become the core of the "Cold War 2.0" competition. The author is Guy-Philippe Goldstein, lecturer and researcher at the French Institute of Economic Warfare. The full text is excerpted below:

The information technology revolution was the key to Cold War 2.0. Back in the late 1990s, some influential members of the George W. Bush administration predicted China's rise as a formidable competitor to transformative information technology.

China is indeed a technological superpower today, developing better than the United States in terms of Internet user base, telecommunications equipment, and the number of industrial robots.

This technological competition is fundamental. In the 19th century, the American historian Alfred Thayer Mahan used britain as an example to put forward the theory that "becoming a maritime power is the key to the struggle for world hegemony" In the 21st century, the key lies in cyberspace. The greatest wealth is created here – eight of the world's top ten companies are digitally sourced. As robotics accelerates, cyberspace will be the birthplace and direction of all services, from self-driving cars to industrial or home robots. Robots are controlled by code, and to borrow the view of geopolitical scientist Halford Mackinder, whoever dominates the code will dominate the world in the next 20 years.

Cyberspace "Arms Race"

What will this confrontation look like? Perhaps as the serious tensions between the European powers before 1914. In 1910, the economist Norman Angel wrote that economic integration would prevent war. But the security dilemmas of each country illustrate the limits of this thinking. A century from now, the struggle in cyberspace could exacerbate these dilemmas, leading us into a more unstable and dangerous world.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the pace of digital transformation has accelerated. The recent $50 billion U.S. semiconductor investment plan is a precursor, and this acceleration could be interpreted by rivals as another form of arms race.

The cyberspace struggle will also be a cognitive struggle. Facebook, which has been dubbed a "useful idiot" by Russia in anti-American propaganda, has been manipulated to suggest one use in cyberspace: to amplify the instability of user emotions, a precursor to reactions of fear or anger. Metaversities (virtual worlds), augmented reality, or deep pseudo-technologies will exacerbate these risks.

The United States does not necessarily win the competition

Who will win? Beyond nuclear confrontation, this "Cold War 2.0" could end like the first Cold War. However, if the confrontation lasts long, the party that can get the most value from the cyber economy and innovation in cyberspace will prevail. In the words of the philosopher Carl Popper, this is giving the most open societies the advantage of being able to best absorb new ideas, talent, and capital from elsewhere while maintaining fierce internal competition.

However, the United States may not win. Instead of reinvesting new talent and the profits of the automated economy into adapting more people to the digital age, they went to the first savings – real estate. As a result, in the Western world, at a time when the shift in digital revenues to real estate investments leads to speculation and an explosion in housing costs, low-educated people find no chance. These new inequalities have brought serious chaos to the United States.

We are entering an era of tensions that are far more dangerous than in the past 30 years. The shadow of war is back. Hegemony in cyberspace, robot control, and the influence of human thought will be at the heart of this century's hegemonic struggle.

Source: Reference News Network