Wealth Wins: Understand the future in advance, welcome to pay attention.
This year, dozens of real estate companies such as Huaxia Happiness, Blu-ray, and R&F have fallen one after another, and the real estate industry seems to have ushered in the era of "thunder".
The Evergrande incident is undoubtedly a heavy blow, so that the confidence of the entire market in real estate has fallen to the bottom.
The industry thunders and rolls, under the "domino effect", who will be the next downfall housing enterprise?
On September 27, Kaisa's Shenzhen Kerry Center office area gathered a large number of P2P investors, because the product exploded, which instantly attracted the attention of many people.
After that, Kaisa issued a statement for the first time: "The aggregator is an investor of Xiaokang Capital P2P, because the product has been thunderstormed, investors have failed to recover the investment principal and interest as scheduled, and the situation has nothing to do with our company." ”
Although it was a false alarm, Kaisa inevitably received increased attention from the outside world. Sure enough, after the National Day, Kaisa ushered in the darkest moment of double killing of stocks and debts.
Will the next Evergrande be it?
Kaisa Group founder Guo Yingcheng
Anyone who has been following Kaisa for a long time will be familiar with this scene: many institutions have drastically downgraded their ratings, the repayment of dollar debt has become a problem, and Kaisa has fallen into an existential crisis.
You will also find that history is always repeating itself.
It's only been seven years since the last time Kaisa triggered a debt crisis for the first time. In 2020, Kaisa, which has stepped into the hundreds of billions, can be regarded as completely walking out of that crisis, and did not expect to enter another crisis.
At the end of 2014, Kaisa was exposed to the news that its listings in Shenzhen were restricted from selling or seizing and locking, which led to a debt default crisis. Later, Kaisa also triggered the first default in China in 2015 due to the resignation of board chairman Guo Yingcheng triggering a mandatory prepayment provision.
Kaisa has a precedent for defaulting on dollar bonds. In January 2015, Kaisa was unable to pay the $26 million interest on a bond maturing in 2020 on time, making it the first domestic real estate company to default on a U.S. dollar bond.
A chain reaction ensued. At that time, banks and trusts also applied to the court to seize Kaisa's assets, of which the total amount of financing for unpaid real estate trust products alone exceeded 10 billion yuan.
One can imagine the pressure on debt. However, Kaisa finally successfully completed the debt restructuring in 2016 through the restructuring of domestic and overseas debts, consultation and settlement with creditors.
At that time, Sunac, which was keen on mergers and acquisitions, also wanted to acquire Kaisa with this, talking about the amount of up to HK$4.55 billion, but Sunac and Kaisa's overseas creditors failed to reach an agreement on the debt restructuring negotiations, and eventually broke up.
Kaisa solved the crisis on its own, but it should be attributed more to the fact that it was in a high-speed period of real estate development at that time, and the general environment was good. So Kaisa unsealed the project and quickly returned the funds.
Today's general environment is no longer than in the past, the third line and four gears, financing tightening, superimposed real estate sales collection funds use restrictions, the overall is in the downward stage. The thunderstorm of large, medium, and small housing enterprises has gradually become a common phenomenon, and even the head housing enterprises such as Evergrande have not been spared.
Assuming that Kaisa is once again caught in the whirlpool of debt default, the industry believes that the probability of being able to revive the dead again is unlikely. Therefore, "self-help" is a top priority.
It is a real estate enterprise that has been listed by investors as a key focus after Sunshine City. After Sunshine City exposed its financing problems, it is already seeking debt rollover and trying to save itself.
Kaisa has actually made some moves. According to Reuters, people familiar with the matter said Kaisa was looking for buyers for its Hong Kong-listed property management subsidiary and two residential plots in Hong Kong as the company was busy paying off its debts.
Similar to most housing enterprises such as R&F and Modern Real Estate, sell property assets first to get a "life-saving money". Kaisa Meimei was listed at the end of 2018, and as of the end of June this year, the area under management was about 86.3 million square meters, and the total contracted floor area was about 120 million square meters.
At the results meeting at the beginning of the year, Kaisa's beautiful management also threw out a three-year plan target, which is expected to have a compound revenue growth rate of no less than 55% from 2020 to 2023; a compound growth rate of net profit of not less than 60%; an area under management of not less than 240 million square meters in 2023; a target income of 7 billion yuan for the whole year of 2023, and a target net profit of not less than 1 billion yuan.
I never thought that whether I could successfully pass the next three years was still a problem.
The asset quality created is marginally decreasing, and it is hoped that the curve will overtake, and the power that can be used at this time is all kinds of financial means.
However, on the financing side, the supervision of the real estate industry has gradually escalated, banks and trusts are tightening, and the interest rate of overseas bond issuance is rising, which is a direct risk to high-leverage enterprises. The externality risks mentioned in these two days:
Because financing is more difficult, it is more aggressive to occupy capital means for upstream and downstream enterprises, set up financial companies, and raise funds from employees and people around employees.
Friends who have been looking at the enterprise for a long time may have the same feeling, when a business model is becoming more and more complex, the speed of risk accumulation is very fast.
This kind of ordinary people seem to be building houses and selling houses, in fact, the real estate model with more and more complex back-end structures has pressed all the treasures on one thing: house prices continue to rise.
Obviously, this time the bet was wrong.
To interject, some Internet companies, education companies, and the entertainment industry have also bet on the wrong place.
This shows that these industries are wrong to bet on the national strategic level.
The real estate industry has had a few years before, no matter what industry to do real estate, is the real estate can really make money, that year there were a lot of concurrent real estate companies. So the barbaric development for a period of time, the regulatory intervention required to concentrate on the main business, some enterprises withdrew from the real estate.
In the future, concurrent real estate is not a bad thing.
If the group has other industries that can guarantee a certain profit and cash flow (military industry to Poly, consumption to China Resources, etc.), then the real estate sector itself is less pressured, and it also has the strength to bear low profits. Among the current giants, there are indeed some enterprises, their real estate business has not always been unique, if other main business is stable, then the real estate sector has a relatively large room for maneuver, the ability to resist risks is stronger.
This phenomenon has been proven in commercial real estate for some years.
Friends who often shop may have the impression that Joy City and MixC/Hui/Tiandi are very good in operation. In addition to the good level of the trading team, another important reason is that the group company has better patience with commercial real estate and can take short-term risks - this patience is very important for commercial real estate that needs to be "raised".
In the future, more patient mixed-industry groups are more likely to "raise" a better manufacturing real estate sector.
Correspondingly, state-owned enterprises with a single real estate main business may be under greater pressure. The group from scratch to do another main business is definitely not rushed, may be better to merge.