Where is the difference between Wuliangye's performance and the old cellar in Maotai Luzhou?

Recently, I often nag a sentence with everyone - performance cannot be simply understood as "making money will rise, and losing money will fall".

Because making money or losing money is a thing of the past, like the third quarter results – it's actually the company's operation in 789 months, and we only learned about it at the end of October, so it's equivalent to the last month.

And what is the performance thinking of stock investment?

Are you buying it today because?

1, in the past its performance is very good

2, the future of its performance is very good

3, the future performance I am not sure

This may not be easy to understand, but let's understand it from the perspective of a girl choosing a husband.

In addition to the stock market, the term potential stock is often used in young lads, especially college students.

Here I'm going to ask you a few small questions

First: Why isn't the term potential stock used in men who have achieved fame after the age of 45, or even older men over the age of 60?

The reason is very simple, the elderly do have money and careers and status, but after 60 years old, I am afraid that there is not much "future".

From a scientific point of view, the most capable stage for men is between 30-45 years old. After 45, it began to decline, and most of them began to consider the elderly after the age of 60.

Second: Why do 20-year-old girls find 20-year-old boys, our society wants to invent the saying that "this guy may be a potential stock".

The two are actually the same,

Potential is first of all human life, a person is 80 years old, it is close to death; followed by a younger heart is braver, and the body is more supportive of the struggle to change life

The 20-year-old boy has nothing, no home and no car, and the future is uncertain.

So, in the marriage market, 20-year-old girls have two options.

Choosing to fight to change the future of potential stocks, this risk is relatively large, but the return is also the highest.

Or choose a 40-year-old man with a career success similar to Liu Qiangdong, so that the risk is limited and the return is stable.

Of course, there is also a choice - not to choose men, but to choose yourself, from a girl to a strong woman. But this is tantamount to leaving the marriage market, so it is not in the discussion.

After talking about this, we return to the logic of the stock market, generally we divide the thinking of long-term stocks into two types.

1. Value shares

2. Growth stocks

Let's first talk about growth stocks, please ask catheter times, LONGi shares, what is the growth rate of photovoltaic and lithium battery performance in which they are located?

Basically, performance can be cashed out at a high growth rate of 100%.

In the past three years, we have seen the ChiNext index rise sharply, photovoltaic semiconductor new energy as the strongest direction in the field of science and technology, LONGi shares, BYD, North Huachuang, Ningde era of stock prices rose, all because the industry is young enough, growth fast enough.

Just like a 20-year-old boy, although there is not much money for the time being, but the future is big enough!

Giving a valuation of 100 times or even 200 times is mainly the reason for the potential, and the stock market is called "future space".

The 40-year-old domineering president is a value stock, mature and stable.

In the stock market, we generally describe value stocks as such - stable performance, reasonable valuation, and average growth.

For example, the most typical bank, why is the valuation the lowest, PE is only 5 times 6 times?

After all, this industry has a history of 300 years, and the means for banks to make money is to collect and lend money to earn interest margins. Is the performance stable?

It is too stable, and the banks that have established diplomatic relations between China And agriculture and industry have grown by around 10% in the past 10 years. Rarely more than 20%, rarely less than 5%.

Similar pharmaceutical consumer stocks, such as Yili shares, are also typical value stocks.

Baijiu is obviously also the scope of value stocks, and the pattern of this industry is already very clear:

1. From the perspective of total alcohol consumption, the past five years have gradually declined

2. From the perspective of the price of liquor, the price has been steadily raised in the past 10 years

3, from the sales method, the online sales model to do better Shanxi Fen wine growth rate is very fast

The liquor industry can not drink 100 million people this year, 200 million people drink next year, basically the number of people who drink is a steady decline, the amount of alcohol is gradually reduced - so its performance growth mainly comes from price increases.

Who is most qualified for a price increase?

Kweichow Moutai must be the only choice.

Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanghe shares corresponding to the price increase may not be bought by drinkers.

Wuliangye's three quarterly reports

The text is very easy to understand - revenue increased by 10.61%, profit was 11.84%, at 4.127 billion.

Looking at the profit of 4.1 billion yuan alone, how many companies can make this money in this A-share total?

Compare LONGi shares 24 billion, Cataline era 32 billion.

These five grains of liquid must not be immediately raised and stopped?

This comparison is a failure to distinguish between 20 years old earning 10 million and 40 years old earning 10 million.

How about comparing itself to the first half of the year? That's how the slowdown came about.

Guizhou Moutai buckle non-growth 13.17%

Wuliangye deducted non-increase of 11.84%

Luzhou old cellar buckle non-growth of 30.83%

Shanxi Fen liquor deduction non-growth 52.99%

Yanghe shares deducted non-growth of 22.95%

Compared with peers, this is called horizontal comparison, in the third quarter, it is the weakest performance, and the personal expectation is also around 15%, and the result ranks first from the bottom.

Compared with their own first half of this year, compared with last year, this is called vertical comparison, this 11.84% is also a bit out of hand.

The liquor industry is the value stock direction of "mature 40-year-old men", and no one requires it to reach the growth rate of 125% in the Ningde era, after all, it is a requirement for "20-year-old potential stocks" growth stocks.

But your 11.84% is worrying, to know that the first 2 years of Yanghe shares are because the growth rate is -11% and -14% continuously, so the valuation has fallen to about 15 times.

Wuliangye's earnings of 4.2 billion yuan a quarter is of course a strong ability to make money, but the market is worried that the slowdown in Wuliangye's growth rate is just the beginning, and this matter was also the same in Tongce Medical before this matter.