Merkel's departure marks the end of an era, an end to europe's constant exchanges between China, the United States, and Russia.
This sentence is not an exaggeration, in fact, in the end of the Cold War, during the reign of European leaders, Merkel spent 16 years in power, second only to President Lukashenko of Belarus and President Vladimir Putin of Russia. And even stretching this time period from the end of World War II to the present, Merkel was able to rank 15th.
Putin and Lukashenko
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="4" > Germany in Merkel's era – in the context of Sino-US competition, Germany's relationship in Sino-US competition is well balanced</h1>;
In the context of Sino-US competition, Germany is a relatively rare MEMBER of the European Union. Germany, under Merkel's leadership, has neither a clear tilt toward the United States nor a clear affinity for China. Logically, such a country will eventually suffer more problems like Turkey, because it offends many people.
But Germany did not suffer from this problem, and both China and the United States, although sometimes not very satisfied with certain decisions of Germany at certain times, generally had a good relationship with Germany. It is precisely because of this that Merkel's "balanced strategy" has been praised by many people.
But in fact, when she first took office, Merkel's attitude towards China was not very good. In today's terms, it is to fulfill the promises made to voters at the beginning of the campaign, and also showed a clear hard-line tendency toward China.
But soon, Merkel became acutely aware of China's importance to Germany. China's market and development opportunities are not and cannot be provided to Germany by the United States. If Merkel wants to protect Germany's interests, it must not affect the normal economic and trade exchanges between China and Germany. Therefore, the United States and some European right-wing politicians were surprised to find that Merkel began to gradually "pro-China".
Many of the major cooperation projects between China and Germany were finalized during Merkel's tenure. Just before leaving office, Merkel visited China almost every year. The Süddeutsche Zeitung asked Merkel why she visited China so frequently at the "last minute".
Merkel said: "When I first became chancellor, China's GDP was $2.3 trillion, still slightly lower than Germany's ($2.8 trillion). Today, China's GDP is $14.7 trillion, while our GDP is $3.8 trillion. Although we are still a relatively rich country, our role in the world is getting smaller and smaller, because the balance of the world has completely changed. Therefore, we must build our relationship in a strategically wise manner. As Europe's largest economy, we used to be important. Today, we must strive to maintain our important position. ”
From the above blue words, it can be seen that Merkel's vision is indeed very "poisonous". She knows that China's "backwardness" is only temporary, and as China gradually regains strength, what Germany can do is actually to balance the relations between Germany and China, the United States and other world powers, and only in this way can Germany have an "important position".
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="13" > Germany after Merkel's departure can it maintain "balance" - if China and the United States go to war, will Germany fall to the United States? </h1>
This question was actually revealed as early as Merkel's arrival at the "final moments."
Just last month, the German media outlet Deutsche Welle published an interview. The interview said Merkel's "balancing tactics" can actually only be used in times of peace between China and the United States. Once China and the United States go to war, Germany has no choice but to completely turn to the United States to ensure that Germany's interests will not be harmed.
At present, there have been some tough remarks on China in the German political arena, such as the current German Defense Minister Karenbauer has obvious "pro-American" tendencies. Kramp-Karrenbauer sees China as a challenge for Germany. He also opposed France's formation of a "European army" independent of the Us military, saying that Germany should completely turn to the United States in terms of security.
This idea is completely different from Merkel's "balancing strategy", for example, in the military aspect, Merkel has previously agreed to cooperate with the United States to send warships to the Asia-Pacific region. However, refusing to characterize it as a "demonstration" against China not only disclosed the route of its warships to China in advance, but also expressed its intention to make a friendly visit to China.
On the issue of the "European Army", Merkel also supports Macron. Merkel believes that the stronger Europe's defense independence, the greater the likelihood that Europe will be coerced by the United States, and the less likely it is that Germany will be able to maneuver and guarantee its "important position".
But Merkel belongs to the "older generation of politicians" and has gradually become less accustomed to the new political environment in Europe. For example, in the 2008 European debt crisis and the subsequent European refugee issue, Merkel's decision, while still in line with her "balancing strategy" as a whole, was somewhat unacceptable to Europeans, especially Germans.
With the rise of social media, the voices of ordinary Germans have a growing influence on German politics. When more and more vicious refugee incidents occur in Germany and converge into a powerful force, Merkel, who once recited with the characteristics of kindness and moderation, obviously could not cope with it, and the final result was that the Conservative forces in Germany gained more and more support.
Fortunately, the conservative forces in Germany still do not have an absolute upper hand, and the new German government is now barely the product of a compromise between the parties. Moreover, for the sake of stabilizing the situation, Merkel still has some influence over the new German government after leaving office.
All this determines that Germany will not fall to the United States in a short period of time.
On the defense issue, at present, Germany's best choice is actually to set up a "European army" with France, rather than being tied to the rules and regulations of NATO, being used by the United States to deal with China and becoming "cannon fodder" for the United States.
China's biggest influence on Germany at present is still in the economic aspect. On the same day that Merkel stepped down, Hamburg, Germany, also held a welcome ceremony to welcome the first arrival of the China-Europe train "Shanghai" in Hamburg, Germany.
The gradually rising Sino-German economic and trade exchanges have also become an "insurance" to prevent Germany from falling to the United States. The stomach, sometimes more clearly than emotionally, knows what you need.
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