Text | Wei Hang
The third quarterly report of baijiu is coming.
Looking back at 2020, Yanghe led the performance of liquor to pick up, once making the concept of liquor stock skyrocket. Before yanghe released its results this year, Shede Liquor took the lead in releasing three quarterly results.
According to the announcement, shedding the liquor industry (600702. SH) net profit in the third quarter of 234 million yuan, an increase of 59.65% year-on-year, in the case of profits are acceptable, shede liquor industry is caught in the turmoil.
On October 17, some media reported that the 120,000-130,000 tons of base wine in shede liquor industry are known to be super old and are "high-quality base wine stored in clay pots" - and this is a lie. At the same time, the media believes that the old wine strategy of the liquor industry is a "pseudo-proposition", and the gross profit margin of the liquor industry is high, which does not match its brand reputation, and the bubble is very large.
As soon as the news came out, it aroused widespread concern among investors and consumers. Affected by this news, on October 18, the stock price of Shede Liquor fell to a stop intraday; on October 19, Shede Liquor fell again.
On October 21, Shede Liquor issued a clarification announcement, saying that the company's old wine reserves are real, with more than 120,000 tons of old wine. The stock price also gradually picked up after the response of the liquor industry, and as of October 25, the stock price rose from 184 yuan to 191 yuan.
In the history of Sichuan wine, Shede has had a good historical record. So next, how should the wine industry "give up and get"?
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="9" > once brilliant wine industry</h1>
Shede Liquor is located in Tuopai Town, Shehong County, in the hilly area of central Sichuan, and originated from the county-owned state-owned distillery established by the Shehong County People's Government in 1952. The company was officially established in 1993. In May 1996, the company's stock was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, becoming the third listed company in the liquor industry.
Shede Liquor industry has had a brilliant stage of development, and has ranked first in the production and sales of China's liquor industry.
In 2000, its production and sales volume were 146,000 tons and 143,000 tons, respectively, ranking first in the output of the liquor industry, ranking among the top 5 listed liquor companies with sales revenue of 940 million yuan, and the net profit reached 106 million.
However, after 2000, the road to development of Shede was very bumpy: first of all, due to the impact of tax policies on low-grade liquor, coupled with the adjustment of development strategy and the failure to improve the incentive mechanism, the reform that Shede wanted to promote encountered multiple obstacles.
In the case of the compound growth rate of the industry from 2001 to 2010, the shede liquor industry has been stagnant at the level of 800 million.
Since 2011, the company's strategic decision to focus on high-end wines over low-grade wines has made the company worse.
In 2011, the company changed the original marketing strategy and promoted the growth of corporate performance with the dual brand of "Willing to Give + Tuopai". At that time, the company concentrated on creating a high-end shed series and ignored the low-end market, resulting in a significant reduction in its market share in the middle and low-end markets.
On December 4, 2012, after the promulgation of the eight central regulations, high-grade liquor has sunk and launched new low-end products. Willing to launch a high-end wine with a unit price of thousands of yuan against the trend, the company's performance showed a cliff-like decline, with a net interest rate of less than 1%.
In this situation, shede liquor industry urgently needed to introduce external investors to improve the corporate governance structure and inject new vitality into the new company.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="19" > lures wolves into the room and wears ST</h1>
In 2015, Shede Liquor introduced SkyOcean Holdings as a strategic investor and acquired 38.78% of the equity of Tuopai Group held by the People's Government of Shehong County. At the same time, SkyOcean Holdings increased the capital and shares of Tuopai Group, and the registered capital of Tuopai Group increased to 232.24 million yuan.
After equity transfer and capital increase and share expansion, SkyOcean Holdings and Shehong County People's Government each hold 70% and 30% of the equity of Tuopai Shede Group.
Tuopai Group held 29.85% of the shares of Shede Liquor Industry unchanged, and is still the controlling shareholder of Shede Liquor Industry. Mr. Zhou Zheng, the actual controller of SkyOcean Holdings, replaced the People's Government of Shehong County and became the actual controller of Shede Liquor.
Before SkyOcean Holdings entered the ownership, it was willing to divide its products into two varieties: sauce flavor type and strong flavor type. The sauce flavor type includes Tianzi Hu, Swallow Zhihu, etc.; the strong flavor type has Shede series wine, Tuopai Tianqu series wine, intoxicated series wine, Tuopai special song series wine and Tuopai Daqu series wine.
After the change of the actual controller in 2016, Shede Liquor industry gradually eliminated the old Tuopai series of products.
Sales of the Shede series have grown rapidly since 2015: sales have grown from 3055.85 kiloliters in 2016 to 4794.19 kiloliters in 2018, with an average annual growth rate of more than 35%.
This has to do with both the company's marketing strategy and changes in the consumer market. On the one hand, the company strives to improve the product structure and brand positioning, with the assistance of channels and publicity, through the investment of marketing resources, to promote the substantial growth of the "willing" series of liquors representing the company's height; on the other hand, after the adjustment of 2012-2015, liquor consumption has picked up, and the demand space for medium and high-end liquor has been opened again. The company's marketing strategy caters to market changes.
At the same time, the production of Tuopai series wine is reducing: sales in 2016 decreased by 26.42%, in 2017 by 58.11%, in 2018 by 27.08%, in 2018, Tuopai series wine sales were 7203.83 kiloliters, a decrease of 2/3 compared with 2016.
Tuopai is a traditional old brand, with a wide audience and the market is more sensitive to price. Considering that Tuopai's contribution to the company's revenue and profit is too low and not in line with the company's long-term development interests, the company has significantly reduced the production of Tuopai - while promoting resource focus, it has saved operating costs.
At the same time, we are willing to implement the strategy of high-end advancement and low-grade retreat.
Shede series, intoxication and Tianqu belong to the company's high-end products, and the price is positioned in the range of 200-2000 yuan.
In 2018, the sales volume of medium and high-end products was close to 8,000 tons, accounting for 66% of sales. Among them, the proportion of willingness is 40%, and the sales volume of intoxication and tianqu accounts for about 26%.
In addition, considering the high growth of Shede liquor, and the overall decrease in sales of medium and high-end liquors during 2017 and 2018, it can be judged that the market sales of intoxication and Tianqu are shrinking.
Low-grade wine includes products below 200 yuan such as special qu, youqu, and Tuo Xiaojiu. During the period from 2017 to 2018, the production and sales of low-grade liquor were significantly reduced by the company.
The single brand strategy has made the original sound sales system of Shede concentrated to the high-end. Subsequently, the low-end market was gradually eroded by the products of other companies. When there is great turmoil in the market and it is necessary to rely on low-end products to increase sales and profits, it is willing to find that its previous channel advantages have been gradually "abandoned".
Under the control of SkyOcean Holdings, from 2016 to 2019, the revenue of Shede Liquor Industry was 1.462 billion yuan, 1.638 billion yuan, 2.212 billion yuan and 2.65 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 26.42%, 12.1%, 35.02% and 19.79% respectively. However, behind the performance growth, the internal management of the liquor industry has been exposed to problems.
On August 20, 2020, Shede Liquor announced that after self-examination, it was found that SkyOcean Holdings and its affiliates had occupied the company's funds through non-operating operations of Pengshan Liquor, and the cumulative amount incurred in 2019 and 2020 was about 2.16 billion yuan and 1.85 billion yuan respectively.
The willingness to lure the wolf into the room was unintentionally put on the ST hat.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" Data-track="38" can Fosun be revived >? </h1>
On April 3 this year, at the 2021 distributor conference of Shede Liquor, Zhang Shuping, chairman of Shede Liquor, said: "Shede has ushered in the successful entry of Fosun Yu garden and ushered in the blessing star Gao zhao. ”
Why did Guo Guangchang, chairman of Fosun Group, invest in the liquor industry? At the 104th Sugar and Wine Conference on April 3, he responded for the first time with three major motives: one is personal feelings, Guo Guangchang said that he has deep feelings for Tuopai; and the other is the old wine strategy. The reserves of Tuopai Shede's old wine reach 120,000 tons, leading the industry; the third is that the name of The willing is good, the cultural attributes are strong, and the consumers who are willing to give up are people with cultural taste.
The topic of the previous controversy also focused on the issue of old wine that was willing to be given.
In recent years, the topic of old wine has continued to be hot. Driven by the intensification of competition and consumption upgrading in the liquor industry, the old liquor category has gradually expanded its market scale and become a segment with great competitive potential in the liquor industry.
According to data, aromatic liquor occupies about 65%-70% of the market, but high-end aromatic liquor accounts for only 0.7% of it. Therefore, some people think that the aged wine of famous wine is more precious, and the scarcity value of old wine is highlighted.
However, from the perspective of shed liquor industry operating data, the third quarter of medium and high-end liquor was 957 million, down 9.1% from 1.053 billion in the second quarter; low-grade liquor was 163 million in the third quarter, down 23.1% from 212 million in the second quarter. Gross margin in the third quarter fell slightly to 78.1%, and the semi-annual report was 78.78%. However, its ROE has increased significantly, reaching 21.46%, and its semi-annual report is 17.35%.
The old wine strategy did not bring further growth.
Of course, in the financial report, the liquor industry line continues to maintain a high growth rate, which is very "rare" in the sub-high-end field.
Contract liabilities have increased significantly, short-term borrowings have been cleared, interest-free financial debt has been paid, operating cash flow has been very good, and cash collections are improving. Although the gross profit margin decreased, the sales expenses and advertising expenses increased significantly, which shows that the advance collection is real. This is the "get" part of the liquor industry.
In addition, through the dealer change, the overall increase of 416, for the upcoming four quarters, the overall sales target has a certain bonus. It can be seen that Fosun is focused on long-term plans.
Judging from the changes in shareholders, the third quarterly report shows that in the third quarter of this year, the well-known Niu San Fan Shebin once again increased his holdings in the liquor industry. As of the end of the reporting period, it held 2.72% of the company's shares and has become the second largest shareholder of Shede Liquor. Another Niu Shan Fang Deji xinjin Shede Liquor Industry is listed in the top ten shareholders, holding 0.37% of the shares as of the end of the reporting period.
If we can maintain a compound growth of 50% for three years, the willingness of 150 billion yuan is a reasonable valuation. But the key issue is how to ensure the implementation of the old wine strategy and the controllability of quality. Therefore, it is not easy to achieve this compound growth.
After SkyOcean Holding Group was out and Fosun took over, shede's stock price climbed from the lowest point of 55.76 yuan to a high of 265.76 yuan in one year. Currently, it hovers above 200 yuan.
The high-end strategy behind the old wine is a means for second-tier wine companies like Shede to expand the market and carry out a nationwide layout - this is beyond reproach. But blindly exerting high-end power, for wine companies, it can be said to be a dangerous move.
What can we rely on to promote sales growth in the future, and then continue to implement the high-end strategy? What will it give up and what will it gain? Let's wait and see.