【Text/Observer Network Columnist Yuan Ye】
Let's look at a piece of news.
According to the Global Times reported on March 13, Taiwan's "vice minister of foreign affairs" Xu Sijian announced on the morning of the 12th that Tsai Ing-wen is expected to visit Palau, Nauru and the Marshall Islands in the South Pacific from March 21 to 28. As for whether the trip will transit through the United States, Xu Sijian said that "it is still in contact."
Image source: Baidu Map
Some Taiwan media have noted that Tsai Ing-wen did not go to Kiribati, another "country with diplomatic relations" in the South Pacific. Taiwan's "Ministry of Foreign Affairs" explained that Tsai Ing-wen was going to participate in Taiwan's "Spring Festival" on March 29, and the president of Kiribati, who is also the president of Fiji Pacific University, needed to preside over the graduation ceremony, and the time could not be cooperated. Taiwan's China Times Electronic News recalled on the 12th that Tsai Ing-wen visited Eswatini Africa's "countries with diplomatic relations" in April last year, but did not arrange to visit Burkina Faso, another "country with diplomatic relations" in Africa. "Foreign Minister" Wu Chao-sup claimed that the President of Burkina Faso "has an important international itinerary and is inconvenient to receive," but at the end of May last year, Burkina Faso announced that it had "severed diplomatic relations" with Taiwan and established diplomatic relations with the mainland.
Even the comment section of Taiwan's dark green media mocked President Tsai's so-called "journey to ocean democracy", feeling that "'friendly countries' are really going to one less." Yes, there have indeed been rumors recently that the Taiwan authorities are about to encounter a "crisis of 'diplomatic relations' in Oceania," and there are also endless rumors that the six "friendly countries" in the South Pacific are about to "abandon Taiwan and land." However, the enemy is widespread, and we must also see that there are also disturbing movements in the South Pacific.
(1) Taiwan and the United States have made frequent moves in the South Pacific
The timing of Tsai Ing-wen's announcement of the visit is quite interesting. On March 11, Tsai Ing-wen just held a "national security conference" to put forward a guiding program for countering the "one country, two systems Taiwan proposal.", and announced early on the 12th that she would "visit friendly countries", which was full of confrontational colors. Zeng Mingzong, a "legislator" of the Blue Camp, believes that this is most likely because of the unstable warning signs of the "countries with diplomatic relations," so he is visiting at this juncture in the hope of consolidating the "friendship." Xu Yongming, a "legislator" of the power of the times, said that if there is instability or crisis in the "countries with diplomatic relations", in addition to the report, we should also find opportunities to make breakthroughs, and in the past, such as the "urban diplomacy" of Zheng Wencan, mayor of Taoyuan, and Lin Youchang, mayor of Keelung, have a good echo, do not be too passive defensive.
Compared with the small fights on the island of Taiwan, a move by the United States should really be vigilant and pay close attention to. On February 19, US Secretary of State Pompeo publicly endorsed Taiwan at the "Micronesia Heads of State Summit" held in Palau and expressed "respect and support" for the decision of relevant countries to support Taiwan.
Image credit: U.S. Embassy in Fiji
The "Micronesia Heads of State Summit" was held on February 20 in Koror, palau's largest city, and on the 19th, the U.S. Embassies in Fiji, Nauru, Tonga, Kiribati, and Tuvalu (to put it mildly, the museum site is only fiji) released Pompeo's written message to the summit. The congratulatory message said Taiwan is "a successful democracy story, a reliable partner, and a good force in the world" and that "as Vice President Pence said, the United States has always believed that Taiwan's embrace of democracy is exemplary and deserves the support of the international community." We respect and support those of you who have made the decision to continue to support Taiwan."
VoA stressed that Pompeo's quoted Pence speech had not been seen by the latter in other public places, and it could be determined that it was Pence's latest remark. "This is the intention of the U.S. government to reaffirm the value of maintaining 'diplomatic relations' with Taiwan to The South Pacific countries," the Voice of America quoted a number of diplomats in Washington as saying.
Some Taiwan media heard this remark and held that Pompeo's remarks were not only a warning to the South Pacific island countries that intend to "abandon Taiwan and go to the mainland," but also to stir up other countries to go further in their relations with Taiwan. In particular, the Taiwan media feel that publicly shouting on the occasion of the "Micronesia Summit" is self-evident in its direction.
Some South Pacific island countries are indeed moving. At the end of the summit on the 21st, the heads of state of Palau, Nauru, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia signed a joint communiqué, "strongly encouraging" the Pacific Islands Forum to "recognize Taiwan and China equally" and supporting Taiwan to "enjoy the same fair treatment as China" during the annual session of the forum.
Photo credit: Communiqué of the 19th Micronesia Summit of Heads of State
The Pacific Islands Forum is an international organization of Pacific nations and one of the most important multilateral arenas in the South Pacific region. At present, neither Taiwan nor the mainland is a full member of the forum, Taiwan is the only "development partner" of the organization, and the mainland is recognized as one of the many "dialogue partners" of the forum. The G-communiqué also recommends that, starting in 2019, meetings with "development partners" and "dialogue partners" should be held in the same place, rather than separately as in the past.
48th Pacific Islands Forum Leaders' Meeting
If the five-nation proposal is adopted, it will undoubtedly be a major provocation to China's sovereignty and territorial integrity and a direct challenge to the objective fact that there is only one China in the world and that the Taiwan region is an inalienable part of China's territory. In particular, it is worth mentioning that the Federated States of Micronesia, one of the five countries, is not an ally of Taiwan, but a country that has established diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China. According to the joint communiqué on the establishment of diplomatic relations signed by the two countries in August 1989, the Federated States of Micronesia recognized the government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China. Last November, Micronesia President Peter Christian just met with Chinese leaders on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting.
At present, in addition to the Taiwan media that jumped up and down, other parties have not yet made a clear statement on this news, and it is conceivable that intensive communication and mediation are being carried out intensively under the stage. But one thing has to be said: the 2019 Pacific Islands Forum will be held in August in Tuvalu, Taiwan's "diplomatic country", which clearly increases the possibility of some forces causing trouble.
(2) China's current situation and challenges in the South Pacific
The murmur created by some political forces in the South Pacific island countries truly interprets what it means to be "buzzing, a few mournful, a few sobbings." Nevertheless, there is good reason to value these small States, whose role in international politics is becoming increasingly important.
The South Pacific is Taiwan's last "friendly fortress." At present, there are only 17 "countries with diplomatic relations" in Taiwan, of which 6 are in the South Pacific, namely Palau, Kiribati, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Nauru and the Marshall Islands. The South Pacific countries have voting rights in international institutions such as the United Nations, control vast waters rich in resources, and are also at the intersection of east-west and north-south transportation routes in the Pacific Ocean, making them in an important geostrategic position. Because of this, the South Pacific Island Countries are also an important object for China to improve the strategic pattern of China's peripheral diplomacy in the new era, and an important part of the construction of the southern route of the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road".
At present, of the total 14 South Pacific island countries, 8 have established diplomatic relations with China. During attending the 26th Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Informal Meeting held in Papua New Guinea in November 2018, President Xi Jinping proposed to continue to enhance strategic mutual trust with Pacific island countries on the basis of the "three adherences" of mutual respect, deepening cooperation and people-to-people bonds, and help island countries strengthen economic and trade ties and interconnection with China and the world through the joint construction of the "Belt and Road" and better participate in the process of economic globalization.
China's influence in the South Pacific is growing. An Australian think tank published last year showed that between 2011 and 2017, China had provided $1.3 billion in concessional loans and grants to the South Pacific region, surpassing New Zealand as the region's second-largest donor, behind Australia ($6.6 billion). China's way of building influence doesn't just provide money: on December 21 last year, China presented Fiji with a hydrographic survey vessel, and a Chinese Ministry of Defense working group attended the handover ceremony.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The handover ceremony of the hydrographic survey vessel assisted by China to Fiji was solemnly held
The will of the people is like the water falling. On February 16, three days before Pompeo's Taiwan-related voice, Meg Taylor, secretary general of the Pacific Islands Forum and "one of the most senior diplomats in the Pacific region" and p.A. diplomat of PNG, said it was time to discuss how to "collectively" engage" with Beijing to gain access to mainland markets, technology, financing and infrastructure. "Exploring China's opportunities to expand the Maritime Silk Road through our Blue Pacific Ocean could provide an opportunity to create regional infrastructure and channels that could inspire new trade markets between Asia, the Pacific and Latin America," she said. ”
According to the analysis of the British "Daily Telegraph", Taylor's statement shows that the six "Taiwan friends" are seeking to develop a "stronger new type of relationship" with the Chinese mainland. Australia's ABC News Network also reported that before the Micronesia Heads of State Summit, the mainland had tried to persuade the leaders of Pacific island countries to exclude Taiwan from the Pacific Islands Forum. These news can frighten the Taiwan authorities not lightly, and "Foreign Minister" Wu Zhaoxie has repeatedly said that "diplomatic relations are stable" and "should be kept." After Pompeo and Micronesia spoke out one after another, the "Tsai government" and the Green Camp reacted not enthusiastically, and Tsai Ing-wen's visit to Kiribati was less than Kiribati, which made them more worried.
But it is still that sentence: the enemy is lenient. We cannot think that diplomacy with the South Pacific Island countries will soon be able to "fly in the west wind under Chang'an and fly the dysprosium", after all, the noise of some political forces has just been issued, and it is quite harsh. There is no doubt that the February "Five-Nation Joint Communiqué" was more serious than the unreasonable harassment of China's representatives by individual countries at the last Pacific Islands Forum last September.
Taiwan's influence in the South Pacific region should not be underestimated. In order to defend this "fortress of friendship", Taiwan can be said to have spared no expense and smashed down real money and silver. The British newspaper The Guardian quoted "WikiLeaks" as saying that Taiwan pays a monthly allowance of $5,000 to senior officials in Nauru as compensation for maintaining "diplomatic relations" with Taiwan. The Taiwan authorities have also vigorously propagated that "Taiwan's indigenous peoples and friends belong to the same Austronesian language culture circle" and that "calling brothers and brothers" is so hard-working that it is jaw-dropping.
Tsai Ing-wen feasts on the President of Nauru Photo/Central News Agency
"Gold dollar diplomacy" and "blood public relations" have really worked. The leaders of Palau, Nauru, and the Marshall Islands, who are about to visit Tsai Ing-wen, have visited Taiwan for more than half a year. In July 2018, The Marshall Islands Woman President Hilda Heni visited Taiwan; in November, Palau President Tommy Remengesau visited Taiwan; and in January, Nauru President Baron Waka sang "You're My Best Friend" in front of the media. When Chen Shui-bian visited the Marshall Islands in 2005, he also boarded the Lafayette-class cruiser of the Taiwan Navy with the then president of Malaysia, showing off his military strength. In places such as the United Nations General Assembly and the World Health Assembly, these countries have also frequently spoken in support of Taiwan.
(III) It is urgent to strengthen research and judgment and respond to challenges
The cross-strait issue has never been just a question between the mainland and Taiwan, nor has it been a game in the South Pacific. The cross-strait dispute over influence in the South Pacific is actually an integral part of the game between China and the United States, and China and the United States are the real chess players in this vast ocean.
The vigilance, prevention and containment of China by the United States, Australia, New Zealand and other countries in the South Pacific region are no longer news, and the relevant actions are innumerable. In recent years, Japan, India and other countries have also expanded their presence in the region, and France and Germany are not lonely enough to want to step in here. Countries such as the United States have operated in the South Pacific for more than a century and have close ties with regional island nations, which have a strong sense of political, cultural and social identity and rely heavily on the latter economically and security. It is obviously not difficult for China to win the friendship of these countries.
The implementation of a strategy of great power balance, wandering and wavering between several major powers, is a common occurrence for some South Pacific island countries. The practice of playing the "Taiwan card" in politics to gain benefits is not uncommon in the South Pacific region, and an ugly drama and farce have been staged. Of Taiwan's six "countries with diplomatic relations," three have "established diplomatic relations" with Taiwan after establishing diplomatic relations with China: Nauru "established diplomatic relations" with Taiwan in 1980, "severed diplomatic relations" with China in 2002, but "resumed diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities in 2005; the Marshall Islands established diplomatic relations with China in 1990 and switched to Taiwan in 1998; Kiribati established diplomatic relations with China in 1980 and "established diplomatic relations" with Taiwan in November 2003. Foreign media said that Kiribati's move led to China's loss of the satellite monitoring station established here by the two sides, causing interference to Shenzhou's manned spaceflight project.
As the South Pacific region gradually becomes the new focus of the great power game, the small countries in the South Pacific that have more "backers" will naturally have more diplomatic chips, and they may not have more courage to "shake the tree with grasshoppers". Although one or several farces may not be enough to be afraid of, the various intricate entanglements of interests behind the farce have to be sobering. If we take it lightly, these forces may link up and unite, and under the unified command of a new "anti-China chorus," they will cause us trouble in the Taiwan Strait and even the entire southwest Pacific.
This article is an exclusive manuscript of the Observer Network and may not be reproduced without authorization.