How to view the latest Russian-US summit, the author believes that the result revealed on the surface is that Putin and Biden simultaneously recognize and maintain the "nuclear terror balance". China should strengthen its "independent nuclear weapons capabilities", first, it will never rely on third countries, including Russia; second, to ensure that no one can withstand a devastating "nuclear secondary retaliatory strike", that is, any nuclear power is also intimidated by China's nuclear weapons capabilities and also has a "nuclear terror balance" with China.
As for whether Biden's private leverage for Putin is enough to bring Russia to the side of the United States, it is a secret. Biden only used one or two sentences to stir up dissension with "Russia is squeezed by China", which naturally could not convince Putin. Over the years, Russia has also suffered enough to be deceived by the United States and rectified by the United States, biden will not allow NATO to withdraw from the original Warsaw Pact group's sphere of influence, Putin will not be hooked.
The statement from the Russia-U.S. summit reads: "We (Biden and Putin) note that even in times of tension, the United States and Russia have stated that their common goal is to ensure predictability in strategic areas and reduce the threat and risk of armed conflict and nuclear war." The recently extended New START treaty demonstrates both sides' commitment to nuclear arms control. Today, we reaffirm the principle that nuclear war cannot be won and can never be fought. ”
"In line with these goals, the United States and Russia will jointly launch a comprehensive bilateral strategic stability dialogue in the near future through which both sides seek to lay the groundwork for future arms control and risk management."
Russia and the United States "cannot and do not fight" and avoid nuclear war that destroys mankind. This is what Biden wants most this time, whether it is from the perspective of us global strategy, or the most direct "united Russia to control China", the realistic goal of leveraging Sino-Russian cooperation, and avoiding nuclear confrontation and nuclear competition with Russia, which is also a "must" for Biden. At the same time, from the perspective of dealing with the bipartisan politics of the United States, if Putin's cooperation in this regard, Biden can also persuade Republicans and American public opinion to criticize him for surrendering to Putin.
Then, standing on the security of the whole human society and avoiding the deterrent of nuclear war is naturally positive and welcome. So, Biden is very smart at playing this card.
According to a June 14 report on nuclear weapons released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the United States and Russia possess 90 percent of the world's nuclear weapons, with the remaining 10 percent belonging to seven other nuclear-armed countries.
Among them, the largest number of nuclear warheads, not the United States but Russia, Russia has 6,255, 705 more than the second United States, the total number of united States is 5,550. However, because stockpiling nuclear weapons is a heavy financial burden, both countries are reducing their nuclear arsenals year by year.
The report also notes that "in February this year, Russia and the United States finally extended the New START Treaty, which is comforting." But the prospects for more bilateral nuclear arms control between the two superpowers remain poor." The New Start of Strategic Arms Treaty limits the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and atomic bombs that the United States and Russia can possess, as well as the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), missile launchers, and heavy bombers equipped with nuclear weapons. The treaty is expected to be valid until February 2026.
A joint statement was issued after the summit of the U.S.-Russian leaders. Photo/White House website
Many international commentators believe that the arms race, including the nuclear weapons race, has dragged down the former Soviet Union. However, the author believes that at present, Biden is still very taboo about Putin's "nuclear deterrence", because Putin not only has a lot of nuclear weapons in his hands, but he always claims that "not only does not promise not to use nuclear weapons first, but once violated, he will take the initiative to use nuclear weapons to give a fatal blow." It is precisely because of this that although Russia's national strength is declining today, no one dares to despise it; and Biden also demands "Russian-American strategic stability."
So, to get Putin's promise of "strategic stability including nuclear weapons," Biden thought it was a score.
On the other hand, Russia's current situation is quite isolated, especially after safeguarding Russia's interests on the Ukraine issue, and it is more subject to joint sanctions between the United States and Europe, so it is also an urgent need for Putin to get out of this predicament.
Putin said before the meeting that Biden is a professional politician, he saw through Biden, know that the ghost idea in the old man's belly is "pull Russia to make China", so Putin affirms that Biden is a mature professional politician. But in fact, Putin also has his own calculations, that is, to use Biden's strategic shift to seek russia's best interests.
Under the present conditions, Russia's greatest interest is to seek relaxation and improvement of relations between the United States and Europe and to get rid of political and economic isolation, and at the same time, Putin will not give up the strategic and economic benefits he has gained for many years because "Sino-Russian relations are at the best level."
The respective calculations of Russia and the United States will also determine the future "changes in the great triangular relations between China, Russia and the United States." This kind of change is also in line with the unprecedented major changes in a hundred years.
The question is how China will adapt.
Looking back at history, everyone can see that there is a history of China and the Soviet Union being both socialist in the Eastern camp; there have also been stages in which the United States and the Soviet Union competed for hegemony and China was at the same time opposed imperialism and anti-revision; moreover, China and the United States "broke the ice" and established diplomatic relations, which not only achieved the "joint Chinese system of the Soviet Union" by the United States, but also gave China the opportunity to improve its external environment and reform and open up. Therefore, the triangular relationship between China, Russia and the United States is a variable, a changing relationship, and will not remain static. The course of history will never rule out the possibility that Russia's balance will tilt in favor of the United States. To be sure, though, at least not in the Biden era. Why? Because Biden doesn't have as many cards as China. Putin's strategic, economic, and geopolitical benefits in China are far from what the elder Biden could have given.
However, China cannot help but guard against it. The biggest "defense" is also above nuclear capabilities.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's June 14 Global Nuclear Weapons Report also assessed China's nuclear weapons, ranking behind the United States, Russia, Britain, and France, and ahead of India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea, a number of around 350, up from 320 in 2020. The author believes that the absolute number of Chinese nuclear warheads may not be mastered by the institute. Western research has the habit of "throwing stones and asking for directions", first throwing out an estimated number, and then waiting for you to clarify, and then verifying to obtain a more accurate real number.
However, it is believed that there is a big gap between China's nuclear warheads and those of the United States and Russia. While China has a commitment not to use nuclear weapons first, then, China's "nuclear secondary strike" capability is more demanding. Then, how to deal with the new situation, I believe that all friends know in their hearts, "strengthening" is beyond doubt, Hu Xijin said that it is reasonable to increase the number of nuclear bombs. What the author wants to emphasize is that in terms of nuclear weapons' ability to fight back, there must be no idea of a fake hand on people, even if it is a "strategic partner" at present. It can be said that The "balance of nuclear terror" between China and other countries is also a guarantee for China's peaceful rise.