[During the Wudong crisis, Taiwan media began to associate: If Taiwan declares "independence," does the United States dare to recognize and send troops to "peacekeeping"? If one day Kinmen and Matsu suddenly declare their independence from the rule of the Taiwan authorities, then the People's Liberation Army "happens" to land at the first time to "peacekeeping"...
The Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation released its latest poll on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in which 22% of respondents believe that war may be started within 1 or 2 weeks, and 51% tend to think it is impossible. Further investigating whether the mainland may take advantage of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to take advantage of the chaos to launch a war against Taiwan, 27 percent think it is possible, 63 percent think it is impossible, regardless of the blue-green identity, 66 percent think that the mainland is unlikely to attack Taiwan, chairman You Yinglong believes that "blue-green supporters have a consensus on this, which is a very rare situation." ”
An article by Taiwanese freelance writer Shen Naixun in Taiwan media pointed out that You Yinglong believes that it is "rare" and "whether it is due to geographical factors or other factors is worth exploring", but in fact, the views of Taiwanese people are not special. Taiwan faced the Taiwan Strait crisis 20 years ago, and since then, people-to-people exchanges between the two sides of the strait have continued to flow endlessly, so the Taiwan people's understanding of the mainland's decision-making is certainly different from the thinking of foreign people who have nothing to do with themselves, after all, "others are eating noodles, some people are shouting hot" is the protective reflection mentality of human nature for unfamiliar affairs.
Let's look at another survey data. At a time when war in Ukraine is on the verge of breaking out, US President Joe Biden has said that he will not send troops into Ukraine to avoid causing a world war. The poll showed that 2 in 6 Taiwanese surveyed basically appreciated Biden's decision, and 50% did not appreciate it.
The author points out that this 50%100 lack of appreciation may have three meanings: one is based on imaginary justice, so it is dissatisfied that the United States has not fulfilled the obligations of the "world police" (but former President Trump has shown that the United States is improper, and Biden has not proved that the United States has the will); the second is out of association with cross-strait relations, worried that the United States' weak security commitment to Taiwan will eventually come to naught; third, it is not appreciative that the United States may say one thing and do another, engage in tricks to lead snakes out of holes, and finally help Ukraine. But conceivably, the third assumption will never account for the largest number of people.
The author goes on to say that Russian-Ukrainian relations are extremely similar to cross-strait relations, while Russia and Ukraine still have diplomatic relations, but the two sides of the strait are in a common understanding. Therefore, with regard to Putin's move, it is necessary for us to make some appropriate associations: If Taiwan declares "independence," will the United States recognize it as soon as possible? Will troops be sent to peacekeeping? Does Putin dare, but what about the United States?
The author also puts forward a hypothesis that if one day Kinmen and Matsu suddenly and without warning announce their independence from the rule of the Taiwan authorities and implement the so-called "high degree of autonomy," and then the People's Liberation Army "happens to" land on the peacekeeping at the first time, will this be regarded as an "invasion"? Kinmen and Matsu on the outlying islands seem to have some kind of fate similarity with Dunetsk and Luhansk in Oudong.
The author said that seeing this, I am afraid that I will let the polls investigate whether it is possible for the mainland to take advantage of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to start a war against Taiwan in chaos - 63% of them think it is impossible. #乌克兰危机 where is the "bane" ##外交部: The Taiwan authorities rub Ukraine hot spots are unwise ##Ukrainian President Zelenskiy #headline hot list
