Energy supply and price stability, heavy measures continue!
According to the news of the National Development and Reform Commission yesterday, the National Development and Reform Commission is studying the establishment of a standardized coal market price formation mechanism to guide coal prices to stabilize in a reasonable range for a long time. In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, yesterday deployed the clean-up and rectification of coal storage sites in coal-producing areas.
Yesterday evening, the market rumors that coal was going to issue a "price limit order". Experts believe that with the implementation of the policy of increasing production and ensuring supply, the contradiction between coal supply and demand has been greatly alleviated, and with the further release of some production capacity in the future, the demand for heating energy will be fully guaranteed. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, coal prices have opened a downward channel.
On October 25, the Shanghai Branch of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange held a meeting to map the maturity of the foreign debt of the housing enterprises, requiring the submission of the maturity of the foreign debt of the current year before Wednesday, and the arrangement of the foreign debt at the end of this year on Friday, including the maturity principal and interest, repurchase demand, and self-owned fund arrangements.
Yesterday, domestic commodities showed a situation of weak workers and strong farmers, the oils and fats in agricultural products rose in the front, and some varieties of chemical and black plates fell sharply. In addition, the red dates reversed last week's strong performance, and the main contract was sealed in the drop stop board. From the perspective of capital flow, the Wenhua Commodity Index inflow exceeded 2 billion yuan yesterday, and the two major sectors of black and oil are still the places where funds are concentrated, and the outflow of funds in the rest of the day is relatively small.
Yesterday night, coal futures fell sharply, as of the night close, the main coking coal contract fell more than 8%, thermal coal, coke main contract fell more than 6%.
The State Council issued the Action Plan for Carbon Peaking by 2030
According to the news of the Chinese government network on October 26, the State Council recently issued the "Carbon Peak Action Plan before 2030". The plan mentions that by 2025, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach about 20%, energy consumption per unit of GDP will be reduced by 13.5% compared with 2020, and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 18% compared with 2020, laying a solid foundation for achieving carbon peaking. By 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will reach about 25%, and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be more than 65% lower than in 2005, and the carbon peak target by 2030 will be successfully achieved。
Measures to ensure energy supply and stabilize prices are frequently introduced
According to the news of the National Development and Reform Commission yesterday, recently, coal prices have risen sharply, and all aspects of society have reacted strongly. In accordance with the Provisions of the Price Law and relevant laws and regulations such as the Suppression of Profiteering, the National Development and Reform Commission is studying the establishment of a standardized coal market price formation mechanism to guide coal prices to stabilize in a reasonable range for a long time.
In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, yesterday deployed the clean-up and rectification of coal storage sites in coal-producing areas.
At the crucial moment, the Sino-US call
According to Xinhua News Agency, on the morning of October 26, Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council and leader of the Chinese side of the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, held a video call with US Treasury Secretary Yellen at the invitation.
The black series continued
Last week, affected by high-pressure policies, commodities experienced a collective correction, and the black system fell sharply. This week, the main iron ore 2201 contract continued to rise, closing at 714.5 yuan / ton yesterday with a 3.03% gain.
"Last week, the sharp decline in thermal coal futures had an impact on the overall sentiment of the market, and many commodity futures prices fell. That is to say, the decline in iron ore last week was mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the market, and it had little to do with the iron ore itself. Since the beginning of this week, although the price of thermal coal futures is still falling, other varieties have begun to return to their own fundamentals. Southwest Futures analyst Xia Xuezhao said.
For iron ore, Xia Xuezhao analyzed that there are two main supporting factors: on the one hand, the resumption of steel mills has increased the demand for iron ore. Since entering October, the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity in the country has risen from 78.69% at the end of September to more than 80%. On the other hand, rising sea freight rates have raised the cost of iron ore. The cumulative freight price of cape-type freighters from Western Australia to Qingdao has increased by more than $10, and the cumulative freight price of cape-type freighters from Brazilian ports to Qingdao has increased by more than $18.
However, in Xia Xuezhao's view, despite the rise for three consecutive days, iron ore does not have trend upward momentum, and the rebound space is limited. "From the perspective of demand, the space for steel mills to resume production is limited, and the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate continues to increase with greater resistance." After entering November, steel mill production will be subject to pressure from the dual control assessment of energy consumption and the environmental protection and production restrictions in the heating season. In other words, after November, steel mills may increase production restrictions again, and iron ore demand may fall again. From the perspective of sea freight, in fact, the price of sea freight has recently declined. He said that the key factor in the medium-term trend of iron ore prices is still the change in demand, and the change in the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces across the country still needs to be paid attention to.
"In the context of the continuous accumulation of port inventories, the remaining time of iron ore in the year is relatively limited." Liang Haikuan, an analyst at Founder Medium-term Futures, said that from the perspective of its own supply and demand, the fundamentals of iron ore have further weakened recently. Recently, the production restrictions of steel mills around the country have been strengthened again, the output of the five major steel grades has once again declined significantly, the average output of molten iron on Sunday has stopped rising and falling, down 16,400 tons to 2,145,800 tons month-on-month, the daily consumption of imported mines of 247 steel mills has dropped by 0.83 million tons to 2.65 million tons month-on-month, and the demand for iron ore has declined again after short-term marginal improvement after the National Day. In order to complete the annual target of no year-on-year increase in crude steel, there is still a greater pressure to reduce production in the fourth quarter of molten iron, and the monthly reduction of molten iron may remain above 8 million tons.
Liang Haikuan said that the current contradiction in the total amount of port inventory has been more prominent, and the follow-up accumulation will continue. The peak season of terminal demand is approaching the end, and the pressure on the subsequent accumulation of finished products will gradually increase, and the pressure on iron ore prices in the downstream will be strengthened again. Overall, iron ore prices are still easy to fall and difficult to rise in the near future, and the current risk of chasing up is greater than the return.
Yesterday, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice to carry out crude steel production verification of steel enterprises in the province. It is understood that this is the first province to start crude steel production verification this year, and it is expected that other provinces will arrange it one after another.
"The rumors that the provinces were required to complete the annual target by the end of November are basically true, and the target for crude steel reduction in 2021 may be about 20 million tons." As a result, crude steel production will be significantly reduced in the two months leading up to the end of the year, especially in November. The production verification started in Shanxi Province is expected to be carried out to map out the pressure reduction plan in November. This move may be symbolic. A market person said.
In addition, it should be noted that yesterday a number of steel mills issued a price adjustment announcement, the highest increase is Fangda Special Steel, the price adjustment range of 10 yuan / ton, the highest decline is Fujian Sangang, the price adjustment range of 350 yuan / ton, the specific proportion: up 1, accounting for 4.5%, the price adjustment range of 10 yuan / ton; down 17, accounting for 77.3%, the price adjustment range of 10-350 yuan / ton; flat 4, accounting for 18.2%.
Market participants said that at present, the government has strengthened supervision in many departments, strictly prohibited market speculation, price gouging, hoarding, collusion in manipulating market prices, fabricating and disseminating price increase information and other illegal acts, merchants may have panic selling, and it is expected that steel prices will remain weak in the short term.
In terms of thermal coal, the decline continued. Yesterday, the main thermal coal contract 2201 intraday approached the 1200 yuan / ton line, hitting a nearly one-month low, down 7.73% as of the close, closing at 1237 yuan / ton. Trading volume continued to drop to 62,500 lots, and open interest fell to a 3-month low.
In terms of fundamentals, last week, the regulatory authorities intensively introduced various measures, layer by layer, and on October 24, the National Development and Reform Commission issued four more articles to promote the coal market to return to rationality. Since October 5, the national unified adjustment power plant coal supply has been greater than coal consumption for 20 consecutive days, on October 24, the unified adjustment power plant supply of 7.14 million tons of coal, power plant coal storage reached 95.69 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons over the end of September, can be used for 17 days. With the further release of coal production capacity and the completion of the overhaul of the Daqin Line, the coal supply of the power plant is expected to be further improved. Under the pressure of coal price regulation, many coal mines have recently taken the initiative to reduce the sales price of coal pits, and the price of Q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port released by my steel network has been reduced by 100 yuan to 2050 yuan / ton. However, as the winter coal season approaches in mid-November, there are still hidden concerns about low downstream inventories, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the policy and the balance between supply and demand.
"Judging from the current trend, there is no phenomenon of stopping the decline and stabilizing for the time being. The National Development and Reform Commission is still increasing its efforts to ensure supply and price stability, and the market wait-and-see sentiment is still relatively strong. The corresponding daily consumption is still at a seasonal low. From the perspective of the future market, the consumption in the past two weeks is in a period of gradual recovery from the low level, and the contradiction is not prominent, so the price will still be weak. Around the middle of November, if there is a large year-on-year increase in daily consumption, then the supply and demand side is still tight, which will have some support for prices. Zeng Xiang, a thermal coal analyst at Yide Futures, said.
The oil rally has restarted, and there is still a shortage of oil and fat oil in the world
Boosted by the continuous rise in crude oil, soybean oil and palm oil prices, the oil and fat sector continued to rise after the National Day, refreshing the high point of the year.
"Recently, the international and domestic oil and fat spot markets have remained basically unchanged, and the tight supply of new crops in the producing areas and the continuous low level of inventories in consumer countries and regions are still the main reasons for supporting prices and basis to remain at a high level and maintain a strong one." Shi Hengyu, chief analyst of vegetable oil at the Lu Securities Futures Research Institute, said.
In fact, the rapid adjustment of the black plate last week led to a rapid correction of domestic commodities collectively, but there is very little room for oil and fat adjustment. "In recent trading days, although the center of gravity of domestic commodity indexes has continued to decline, the differentiation between major categories has strengthened. Under the background of the short-term rapid rise in spot spots of fresh and food commodities, the flow of funds from industrial products to agricultural products is still continuing. Shi Hengyu said.
"In the medium and long term, the high basis of the domestic market will be an important logic to determine the contract market in recent months, and the recent capacity of coastal oil mills has been limited, the order volume of packaged oil has rebounded, and the basis of loose oil has stabilized, which has also formed a support for disk prices." Shi Hengyu said.
In the view of Chen Yanjie, an analyst of agricultural products at Xinhu Futures, the strong rise in the oil and fat sector in the early stage may be mainly driven by domestic sources. She said that since mid-September, Shandong, Jiangsu and other places have been power curtailed and superimposed on the soybeans in Hong Kong, resulting in a low domestic soybean crushing amount under the background of better profits, which has become a new driving factor for domestic oil and fat supply. Although the domestic demand for soybean oil is currently relatively weak, from the perspective of inventory changes, the impact of power rationing is small. But market participants are more worried about the continuity of power curtailment.
"After the National Day, domestic soybean oil and palm oil inventories rebounded, and palm oil basis quotations weakened for a time. But since the beginning of this week, the three major oil and fat stocks have declined to varying degrees. Chen Yanjie said that therefore, from the perspective of short-term inventory, basis, import profits and medium-term supply and demand, there is still no reason for oil and fat to fall, but it is still necessary to guard against policy regulation risks.
At present, the La Niña climate has become one of the hot spots in the market, and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center announced on October 14 that the La Niña phenomenon has developed and will continue for the second winter. For the upcoming winter of December 2021 to February 2022, the probability of la Niña is 87%.
Based on this, the production of soybeans in South America and palm oil in Southeast Asia will be affected to a certain extent. In this regard, Shi Hengyu said that from the ONI index and the forward ENSO forecast model, it has entered the impact of the weak La Niña weather pattern. From the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year, south American soybeans may experience lower than normal precipitation during the sowing period and key growing periods, under the influence of la Niña weather patterns, while precipitation in the main palm oil producing areas of Southeast Asia may be higher than normal, affecting harvesting operations and short-distance logistics from the field to the crude oil crushing plant. Expectations for the La Niña weather pattern may be positive for forward pricing of oil and grease, but it is too early to assess dynamically.
"On the one hand, La Niña in autumn and winter may lead to more rainfall in Southeast Asia, which will affect the harvesting and transportation of palm fruits during the rainy season in Indonesia and Malaysia, and then affect the yield, which has also appeared in history. On the other hand, the drought caused by Joranina will continue until January-March 2022, which is the critical period for the growth of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina, and will also affect the yield of newly cultivated soybeans in South America. But historical data show that La Niña still affects Argentina's soybean yield more and less on Brazilian yields. Chen Yanjie said that for now, La Niña is a potential factor that international oil and fat production may be lower than expected. However, the specific impact depends on the actual intensity, degree of influence and duration of La Niña.
In fact, the current oil and fat oil continues to refresh the historical high, which is still the result of the global shortage of oil oil. "At present, the international palm oil and vegetable oil FOB prices have also refreshed the historical high, and it is estimated that the export price of soybean oil is also near the historical high. The rise in import costs has promoted the continuous rise in the center of gravity of domestic oilseed oil prices. Chen Yanjie said that from the perspective of international vegetable oil, there is still an upward drive, mainly the potential impact of La Niña. From the domestic perspective, the main driver is the tight supply side and the gradual entry of demand into the seasonal peak season. Before the Spring Festival, the factors that need to be paid attention to are: the output of the international palm oil production season, the change in the profit of palm oil imports in the domestic ship schedule after December, when the impact of domestic power curtailment on soybean crushing has improved significantly, and the centralized stocking situation before the Spring Festival.
The disk surface went to rise, and the jujube futures fell to a stop
As the new season of red dates began to concentrate on the tree, the early production reduction theme gradually landed, yesterday the red date plate surface appeared a deep correction, the main 2201 contract fell to a halt, down 10.01%, at 13940 yuan / ton.
"In the past week, macro bearish news has been frequent, in view of the rising basic energy prices since the second half of the year, the state has played a combination of fists, thermal coal, coke, coking coal, soda ash, PVC, methanol and other varieties of decline. Affected by this, agricultural products are not too eye-catching performance. Huang Lulu, a researcher at Huarong Rongda Futures, said.
For the reasons for the suspension of the whole line of red dates yesterday, Wang Jun, president of founder mid-term futures research institute, believes that there are three main points: First, a small number of new season dates have arrived in the Cangzhou market to start trading, a leading enterprise spot special grade of 10700 yuan / ton, the sales price of red dates in the new season is far lower than the market previously expected. Second, the recent recurrence of the local epidemic, the market is worried that the epidemic will once again affect logistics and merchants to see goods, resulting in blockage of jujube consumption. Third, the 2112 contract has more than a month to be delivered, and the current futures premium spot range is relatively large, and there is a return expectation. In the case of tepid spot sales, the futures price has downward return demand.
According to the data of my agricultural product network, in terms of production areas, on October 26, Aksu unified goods were 5.2-6 yuan / kg, up 0.5 yuan / kg from the previous day; Aral unified goods were 5.5-7.5 yuan / kg, up 0.5 yuan / kg from the previous day; McGetty unified goods were 5.5-7.5 yuan / kg, up 0.5 yuan / kg from the previous day; in terms of sales areas, the new goods listed sporadically in the Cuierzhuang market on October 26 had a higher asking price of 6.00-6.50 yuan / kg, and the first level was 5.00- 5.25 yuan / jin, the second level is about 4.30 yuan / jin, the actual transaction is a small amount. The mainstream transaction price of Chen jujube first-class gray jujube is 4.50-4.75 yuan / jin, and the mainstream of secondary gray jujube is 4.00 yuan / jin, according to the market source of origin, quality is different, the price of high grade sources is higher.
"In the past two weeks, the price fluctuations of jujube futures have intensified, mainly because it is less than half a month from the listing of jujubes in the new quarter, and the market is fully gamed for the opening price." At present, the humidity of new dates is relatively large, and a small number of trees are planted in the production area, and transactions are sporadic. Prices are for reference only and are only preliminary expectations for the opening price. After a large number of new dates are listed, the price of the transaction is representative. Huang Lulu said that in addition, it is also necessary to pay attention to the epidemic prevention policy of Xinjiang production areas this year, and take isolation measures for epidemic areas to come to Xinjiang. Whether the strict control policy will have an impact on the harvest atmosphere in this year's production areas needs to be continuously concerned. Last year, due to the sudden outbreak of the epidemic in Kashgar during the jujube harvesting season, the production area in Xinjiang was good for the non-epidemic area, and the acquisition period last year was only more than a month before the harvest ended, while the Kashgar region was affected by the epidemic and the acquisition period was extended.
"Most merchants believe that the current jujube prices are high, and seasonally speaking, November is the stage of concentrated trees, the market supply is increasing, and the spot price of jujubes in the new season may be recalled." However, due to the reduction of production this year, the planting cost increased after the sharp rise in fertilizer and labor costs, and the jujube farmers were reluctant to sell. It is expected that there is limited room for spot price correction of jujubes in the new season. Wang Jun said.
Wang Jun believes that due to the impact of production cuts and rising costs, the trend of the opening price of jujube producing areas in the new season is still uncertain, and in addition, the market is still controversial about the commodity rate of jujube in Xinjiang. At the harvest stage, excessive rainfall can easily lead to cracking of dates, which will also affect the rate of jujube commodities. According to the weather forecast, there will be no excessive rainfall in the production area in the coming week, and the impact of the weather on the mood will gradually fade, because the red dates have gradually begun to harvest recently, and the weather speculation time window will gradually close.
The high volatility of the market can be seen that the game between the bulls and the bears is very fierce. "The biggest confidence of the bears is that the spot has not been started, the peak season is not prosperous, and the spot price is sluggish." This week, the price of Guangzhou Ruyifang is: Meinong first-class 9800-10200 yuan / ton, second-level 8800 yuan / ton, third-level 8400 yuan / ton. The reason for the bulls is to judge the sharp reduction in jujube production this year, and at the same time, they believe that there are not enough standard warehouse receipts to be delivered. This is the apparent reason why jujube futures and spot prices are currently moving into two forked lines. Huang Lulu said.
However, the deep reason behind it, Huang Lulu believes that it is too difficult for red jujube base difference traders to participate in the reality, and the combination of futures and present is too weak.
In Huang Lulu's view, the lack of spot acquisition and processing and sales capabilities of basis traders is the reason for restricting their participation in the futures market. "The degree of standardization of agricultural products is much lower than that of industrial products, and a batch of unified goods will increase by 1,000 yuan / ton in a single ton." Then you can only entrust a large factory with the ability to register standard warehouse receipts for processing. However, mainstream jujube production enterprises require the buyer of the standard warehouse receipt to pay a deposit of 15%-20%, so as to ensure the supply of standard warehouse receipts. This requirement is relatively safe for jujube production enterprises, but it is not safe for basis traders, especially in the context of a sharp increase in futures prices, once the delay in delivery is fatal to the basis traders, so this model is doomed to be unable to put volume. In addition, another difficulty is how to deal with the remaining three or four levels of standard warehouse receipts and other foreign goods after the acquisition of the unified goods. It is passive without a spot sales channel. She said.
"These two natural thresholds have led to the inability of basis traders to intervene in the jujube market in a big way, so it is normal that the spot price of jujube cannot rise, and it is normal to expect that the price of jujube in the new season is not high." Huang Lulu said.
Huang Lulu believes that before the jujube in the new quarter, the main 2201 contract of the red jujube is still a large difference, the new jujube tree or will take the delivery logic, at present, because the new jujube has not yet been processed, the commodity rate can not be determined, but this year's production cut also makes the quality of the jujube have a certain improvement, follow last year's commodity rate to calculate, according to the unified price of 6500 yuan / ton, the cost of delivery products is about 11583 yuan / ton. Considering the reasons for the epidemic situation, whether it can have an impact on the formation of a harvest atmosphere in the jujube production area needs to be continuously observed.
This article originated from Futures Daily