Guan Qingyou: We must attach great importance to the downward pressure on the economy in the second half of the year, the manufacturing PMI has been down for 3 consecutive months, pay attention to the economic downward pressure in the second half of the year, the domestic demand has rebounded, the export orders have fallen, the imbalance between internal and external demand has eased The production has fallen back to the low point of the year, the production expansion has slowed down, the price index has fallen back by multiple factors, the upstream raw material price regulation has achieved initial results, the pressure of the middle and downstream enterprises has eased the survival situation of small enterprises, but the main index is still under the boom-bust line. The need for policy tilt non-manufacturing PMI fell sharply from the previous month, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic in Guangdong Short-term decline Overall, the PMI fell slightly in June, the economy weakened, but this is more of a short-term factor disturbance such as the epidemic, do not have to overreact, and should be more worried about the economic downturn in the second half of the year

At present, the economy is in the process of switching from recovery to stagflation, and the changes in the economic cycle are closely related to the rotation of large-scale assets. In order to better grasp the rhythm of the economic cycle, it is necessary to track economic growth and inflation data. Among them, PMI is the most effective economic leading indicator, which can help us understand the changes in economic growth for the first time, and judge when the economy will shift from acceleration to slowdown.

<h1 class="pgc-h-decimal" data-index="01" data-track="3" > manufacturing PMI has been down for 3 consecutive months, paying attention to the economic downward pressure in the second half of the year</h1>

The PMI in June was 50.9%, slightly higher than expected 50.8%, slightly lower than the previous value of 51%, although the PMI continues to be in the boom expansion range, but it has been three consecutive months of decline, from the highest 51.9% in March to the current 50.9%, has fallen by 1 percentage point, the economic recovery momentum margin has weakened, and the inflection point of economic recovery has been confirmed. However, from the perspective of decline, the highest was 0.8 percentage points in April, and 0.1 percentage points in May and June, and the decline was significantly narrowed, indicating that the manufacturing PMI was running smoothly, resilience still existed, and short-term downside risks were still relatively controllable and would not stall.

<h1 class="pgc-h-decimal" data-index="02" data-track="28" > domestic demand picked up, export orders fell, and the imbalance between internal and external demand was alleviated</h1>

Reflecting the change in domestic demand, the new order index was 51.5%, a change in the downward trend since March, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that domestic consumption is still recovering, especially catalyzed by the 618 major promotion factors, consumption has picked up significantly, and the consumer goods manufacturing industry in June was 52.2%, 1.6 percentage points higher than last month, and the highest point in the past 5 months. However, the new export order index reflecting the change in external demand is 48.1%, which has fallen for 3 consecutive months, and the past two months have been below the boom-bust line, which is not a weakening of external demand, because the CCFI and SCFI that reflect China's export prosperity index continue to reach a new high, China's advantages as an exporter are still obvious, in the short term, more is the main export province of Guangdong affected by the epidemic, and due to the sharp rise in upstream raw material prices, increased cost pressure, tight transportation capacity to push up transportation costs, exporters temporarily suspended orders, do not have to worry too much. However, from the perspective of prolonging the cycle, the overseas economy is recovering, production is gradually recovering, the substitution effect of China's exports is reduced, and the exports that flourished in the first half of the year may be difficult to sustain in the second half of the year.

<h1 class="pgc-h-decimal" data-index="03" data-track="30" > production fell back to the low point of the year, and production expansion slowed down, affected by multiple factors</h1>

Usually demand picks up, in order to ensure that supply can keep up with demand, it is reasonable to increase production efforts, but the production index in June was only 51.9%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and production activities have fallen to the low point of the year. Mainly affected by the following factors: first, the epidemic in Guangdong, as a large manufacturing province, the epidemic prevention and control affects industrial production; second, the shortage of chips, the global lack of "core", mobile phones, computers, automobiles and other fields of production will be impacted; the third is the increase in coal prices, the rise in upstream coal prices, increasing the operating costs of thermal power plants, affecting power supply, power supply is tight, resulting in staggered peak electricity consumption in many places, restricting production; fourth, equipment maintenance, the rainy season in the summer of June is the peak of equipment maintenance and maintenance.

<h1 class="pgc-h-decimal" data-index="04" data-track="33" > the high price index fell, the upstream raw material price regulation and control began to bear fruit, and the pressure on middle and downstream enterprises was alleviated</h1>

After the National Development and Reform Commission and multiple ministries and commissions jointly enlarged the move, although the overseas-led crude oil prices reached a new high, the LME copper co-led by domestic and foreign co-led LME fell by more than 8.6% in June, and the domestically led SHFE rebar rose slightly by 1.59%, the growth rate slowed down significantly, and the trend of unilateral rapid rise of upstream raw materials was controlled to a certain extent. The raw material purchase price index was 61.2%, down 11.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the ex-factory price index was 51.4%, down 9.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the difference between the raw material purchase price index and the ex-factory price index was significantly narrowed, which helped to alleviate the cost pressure of middle and downstream enterprises and avoid excessive squeezing of profit space.

<h1 class="pgc-h-decimal" data-index="05" data-track="37" > the survival situation of small businesses has improved, but the main index is still below the boom-bust line and needs policy tilt</h1>

The small business PMI in June was 49.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, reversing the downward trend of the previous month, and the production and demand indexes have improved to a certain extent, especially the new order index from 47.7% to 48.8%, up 1.1 percentage points, and the production index from 49.6% to 49.7%, up 0.1 percentage points, but it needs to be noted that the main PMI index of small enterprises is still below the boom-bust line, and significantly lower than that of large and medium-sized enterprises. Therefore, in the process of economic downturn in the second half of the year, the policy tilt of small enterprises must also keep up.

<h1 class="pgc-h-decimal" data-index="06" data-track="39" > non-manufacturing PMI fell sharply from the previous month, mainly due to the short-term decline in the impact of the epidemic in Guangdong</h1>

The non-manufacturing PMI was 53.5%, well below the expected 55.3%, and significantly less than the previous value of 55.2%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the decline was more obvious. Sub-point of view, the construction industry business activity index of 60.1%, the same as last month, and the highest point of the year, due to short-term infrastructure and real estate resilience still exist, continue to run high boom; service industry business activity index of 52.3%, down 2 percentage points, the service industry consumer market cooled rapidly, the drag effect is obvious, mainly in Guangdong and other local areas of the outbreak of the epidemic, offline service consumption was impacted again, offline activities significantly reduced, resulting in air transport, accommodation, catering and other industries business index fell below the critical point, The impact of Guangdong as a major consumer province cannot be underestimated, but with the zero of new local cases in Guangdong, business activities in the service industry will gradually return to normal.

<h1 class="pgc-h-decimal" data-index="07" data-track="43" > overall, the PMI fell slightly in June and the economy weakened, but this is more of a short-term factor disturbance such as the epidemic, there is no need to overreact, and it is more worrying about the economic downturn in the second half of the year</h1>

It is mainly manifested in the following four aspects:

First, exports, due to the acceleration of vaccination in major economies such as Europe and the United States, the gradual recovery of production, the weakening of the "substitution effect", coupled with the tide of rising commodity prices to push up the production costs of enterprises, squeezing the profit space of middle and downstream enterprises, the export competitive advantage is gradually reduced, and last year's high base effect is obvious, although exports will maintain a certain growth, but the growth marginal slowdown.

Second, real estate, the first half of the year exceeded expectations, mainly supported by hot sales, real estate investment is resilient, in the second half of the year, housing enterprise financing is limited, new construction slows down, residents' housing loans tighten, investment has the risk of falling.

Third, infrastructure, the first half of the year was not as good as expected, the second half of the year for local governments, risk prevention is more important than steady growth, infrastructure investment does not have much incremental space, the sales of leading indicator excavators continue to decline, infrastructure investment slows down, there is still room for downside.

Fourth, consumption, although repaired in the first half of the year, is still relatively weak, has not returned to the normal level in 2019, and the growth rate tends to slow down, mainly because the growth rate of residents' income has not returned to the pre-epidemic level, after experiencing the impact of the epidemic, the preventive savings motivation is strong, the willingness to consume is not strong, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in the second half of the year.