Exclusive 丨 Economist Guan Qingyou: The impact of the new strain on the stock market will not be too large

　　Zhongxin Jingwei, November 29 (Dong Xiangyi, Zhang Meng) How much impact does the new strain "Aomi Kerong" have on the global capital market, including the A-share market? Guan Qingyou, an economist and president of the Institute of Financial Research, believes that on the whole, the impact of this strain mutation on A shares will not be too large. China's asset market may also be less affected by the new round of the epidemic than in Europe and the United States.

　　Guan Qingyou believes that the overall assessment of the impact will still occur, but the impact may not be too large. There are several reasons for this:

　　First, judging from the post-epidemic trend of stock markets in various countries around the world, including China's stock market, basically the stock market will react to the mutation of new strains, but the overall anti-epidemic nature has come out, and the stock market is becoming less and less sensitive to the epidemic and more and more able to digest negative shocks.

　　Second, the trend of A shares last week, especially last Friday, generally reflects the information of the poison strain mutation, but it is actually not enough, because a lot of information appears after the close of the Chinese A-share market, so we think there will be a reaction in the stock market this week. Of course, in this process, A shares are relatively strong, and other stock markets that are still trading at the same time, such as Hong Kong stocks, have a much larger reaction than A shares.

　　Guan Qingyou believes that in general, the impact of this strain mutation on A shares will not replicate the trend of the stock market and commodity market in the European and American markets.

　　First, the trend of China's A shares this year is obviously different from the US stock market, the overall trend of the US stock market is rising, because they are in a loose policy, the official Announcement Taper is also after November, but the A share this year is obviously a structured trend, the plate rotation is particularly fast, so it is more difficult to make money this year, but in fact, it has put this expectation of economic operation, the expectation of the epidemic into the structural changes.

　　Second, China's monetary policy since last year is different from that of Europe, the United States and Japan, we have always been more cautious and restrained, and asset prices are generally more moderate, and even to a certain extent, they are suppressed. From this perspective, The impact of the new round of the epidemic on China's asset market may also be smaller than that of European and American countries.

　　Third, the market has a very strong learning ability. After experiencing last year's epidemic, the market learned to digest and adjust the impact, and even many investors took this so-called exogenous shock as an opportunity, just like after the outbreak in early 2020, in fact, now look back, it is a gold pit in the asset market, most institutions think that including our own think that this time the gold pit may be difficult to appear.

　　Guan Qingyou said that from the perspective of policy response, the more serious the epidemic, the smaller the probability of tightening, and the greater the probability of releasing water. According to the experience of dealing with the epidemic last year, there is not much difference between countries in terms of monetary policy and economic policy, basically after the impact of the epidemic, they can only adopt relatively loose policies. Overall, it's not bad news for asset markets, it's good news.

　　Guan Qingyou further said that specific to the Chinese market, monetary policy has a sign of facing an inflection point or becoming positive, in the context of the new crown virus mutation, this positive degree may be higher, overall short-term shock will be a little, but the overall will not be as big as we think, and for the asset market, may create more opportunities for everyone, of course, we must pay attention to the risk. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

　　(The views in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.) )

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