Hello everyone, I am Guan Qingyou.
In this section, we talk about a question that everyone is more concerned about, which cities will still be worth investing in in the next 10 years.
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1. Policy factors
First, the state's macroeconomic regulation and control policy. Whether it is finance, taxation or land policy, it is now relatively tight.
Second, the city's regulation and control policy. In some cities, the housing price control policy is stricter than at the national level.
For example, after the epidemic in 2020, real estate prices in Shenzhen, Ningbo and Hangzhou have risen sharply, which has triggered strict government regulation.
From the central to the local, a consensus has been formed on the real estate industry, so that real estate can be de-financialized and the excessive resources absorbed by the original real estate will be squeezed out.
Moreover, from the perspective of supply-side structural reform, only when the biggest structural problem of real estate is solved can we alleviate the structural problems of our country to a considerable extent.
2. Urban factors
In fact, this is more common, nothing more than just a few factors.
(1) Urban development prospects
The prospect of urban development, in simple terms, is how the urban economy is, and whether there is hope for the future.
For example, there are some shrinking cities in the northeast region, with a large net outflow of population and a relatively weak industrial base. Some are resource-depleted cities that require careful investment.
(2) The degree of concentration of population and industry
Industry and population are also more important indicators.
Some cities are transportation nodes, or benefit from certain national and regional strategies, their population is net inflow, and their industries are upgrading, such cities have investment value.
(3) Block division
Everyone lives in different cities, there are first-line, there are also fourth- and fifth-tier, and there is also a demand for investment in real estate.
Is it that the fourth and fifth tier cities have no investment value?
Nor is it.
I mentioned in my last lesson that the future of the real estate industry is actually two different divisions.
From the perspective of the whole country, regional differentiation is very serious; from the perspective of a specific region, the block differentiation is very serious.
For example, a fourth- and fifth-tier city, although it is a city with a net population outflow, also has core locations, core business districts and relatively good industrial parks.
These are the areas where investment is the primary consideration.
Of course, we also need to consider the local purchase restriction policy.
From a macro point of view, the cycle of the entire real estate industry has reversed and entered a new cycle, and the specific area still needs specific analysis.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="220" >2. Which cities are worth investing in in the next 10 years? </h1>
I think there are only a few types of investments worth investing in:
1. Super first-tier cities
In terms of investment prospects, there is still investment value in the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, but the rise in house prices has slowed down.
In the past 20 years, more up and down, the future may fall more or less.
Based on this situation, the specific way of investing is important. It is eager to liquidate and invest with leverage. Or the funds are sufficient, the cost of funds is not high, and it is intended to be held for a long time.
Different investment methods will produce different investment results.
Looking around the world, super-first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, looking at the trend of house prices in a 100-year and 200-year cycle, the overall trend is still showing a slow upward trend.
For example, after the Asian financial crisis in Hong Kong in 1992, house prices fluctuated sharply, and many celebrities speculated in houses and lost money. However, Hong Kong's housing prices are now back to pre-financial crisis levels, or even more than.
Therefore, in terms of a relatively long historical span, the housing price level in large cities is generally stable and rising, which is an international law.
2. New first-tier cities
The new line is actually a word we have coined.
In 2018 we published a report that sparked a wide range of discussions. Many cities are particularly happy because we have classified it as a new first-tier city, and have reported on it in their own official media.
At that time, we divided the city according to the level of GDP, per capita GDP, and the number of patent declarations, including the city's transportation, geographical location, national strategy, regional strategy and other dimensions.
There are probably more than 20 cities in China that can be included in the new first-tier cities, such as Zhengzhou, Hefei, Changsha, Nanjing, Suzhou and so on.
These new first-tier cities are indeed likely to impact first-tier cities in the future. That is to say, their economic scale, economic aggregate, and population can reach a level similar to that of the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen.
In the long run, the investment value of these cities is not too much of a problem. However, when we invest specifically, we must pay attention to their own real estate cycles.
For example, Nanjing and Suzhou, its real estate cycle is not the same, Suzhou and Changsha are not the same.
Especially in Changsha and Chongqing, the real estate market is very distinctive, which has a lot to do with the governance ideas of their local governments in the past few years.
Overall, the price increase in these two cities is not so large, but the total economic volume, economic scale, and urban competitiveness are all good.
Xi'an is also a very interesting city, the first two years of Xi'an housing prices have not fallen overall, in the past year there has been a significant increase.
Overall, I think similar to the new first-tier cities, basically the capital cities of each province and the particularly important economic cities, there are about 20-30, and their housing prices are supported.
What we have to do is to choose a better area in these cities, and arrange the financial and target of investment according to different investment methods.
3. Themed cities
Thematic cities are actually evolved from the secondary market.
Generally refers to cities with tourist scenic resorts, or cities with relatively good natural and cultural resources. Like Sanya and Shangri-La, they are all themed cities.
Is the themed city worth buying?
I don't think there is a standard answer, and everyone has to make judgments based on different situations.
For example, if you have spare money at home, you already have a house in a big city, you want to buy a house in a scenic resort area, and you can occasionally go and live and enjoy life. I think such an investment is not unavoidable.
If you are still in the stage of just need and improvement, it is not recommended that you invest in the theme city, which is equivalent to occupying your funds.
Families and individuals who just need and improve their needs, I think, should invest in the city where they live, improve the quality of living, and improve the living environment.
There is also a feature of the real estate market in theme cities, some cities due to the relatively large supply, there are many new houses, you will find that there is only a first-hand market, no second-hand market.
These cities, for a certain period of time, may be due to policy factors, or the people's enthusiasm for investment is relatively high, will produce a certain bubble, and some fluctuations are relatively large.
Therefore, it is easy for everyone to buy a new house, and generally no one buys a second-hand house.
In general, cities with this kind of thematic investment must make judgments based on their own family situations, rather than following the crowd.
I heard that many people go to Sanya to buy a house, and they also have to go to Sanya to buy a house, there is no need.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="223" >3. What are the risks of real estate investment? </h1>
Real estate investment is now becoming more and more risky, not as good as in the past 20 years, but overall the opportunity is greater than the risk.
The current risk is mainly manifested in 5 aspects:
1. Policy regulation
The policy risk is that after you invest, you may soon be subject to strict policy regulation and administrative intervention.
A typical case is Dandong, Liaoning. Dandong is a shrinking city close to the Border between China and North Korea, and housing prices in Dandong have soared due to the opening up of North Korea.
But soon ushered in the regulation, many speculators were put in it, more than worth the loss.
This kind of city, I think we have to think about it and then think about it.
2. The financial leverage ratio is too high
In some cities, due to a large amount of infrastructure, the local leverage ratio is too high, which leads to a rapid rise in house prices.
It is not convenient for me to say the name of the city directly, but you should be able to see that in the past few years, some cities have been too highly leveraged, infrastructure has been launched too quickly, and housing prices have appeared in a relatively large bubble, which also contains financial risks.
3. Industrial decline
Industrial decline risks are represented by resource-depleted cities.
Their original mineral resources are gradually depleted, a large number of people are outflowing, and employment is more troublesome.
Such cities tend to have a relatively high degree of nationalization, and real estate investment needs special attention.
4. Population loss
In some cities, there is no resource depletion, perhaps due to climatic reasons, perhaps the business environment is not good, or perhaps the industrial carrying capacity is not enough, and eventually there is a sustained net outflow of population.
This is a typical shrinking city, and the investment risk is higher than that of the average city.
Of course, it is not completely impossible to invest, it depends on the specific situation and specific location.
5. Speculation
A few years ago, this situation occurred in Wenzhou.
A large number of speculators speculated in Wenzhou's house prices, and then there was a parabolic house price decline. It has had a long-term impact on the functions and industrial development of the entire city.
When investing in these cities, be sure to judge the cycle of the quasi-city. If it happens to be on the track of downward housing prices, it will be more miserable.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="225" >4. Will property taxes affect house prices? </h1>
Finally, let's talk about property taxes.
1. Will property taxes affect house prices?
Will property taxes be introduced? What is the impact on house prices after coming out?
In fact, the introduction of property taxes is not to suppress house prices, but to redistribute central and local taxes.
No country wants to completely knock down the real estate market by imposing a property tax, and then clear the house price to zero, which is the wishful thinking of many people.
Of course, property taxes will have a slight impact on house prices. But in the long run, property taxes don't change the trend of the entire house price operation.
Just like we see economies like Europe and the United States have property taxes, but they don't have a particularly big impact on house price trends. The property tax that our country has piloted in Shanghai and Chongqing in the past few years has not had much impact on housing prices in this area.
Therefore, we must be clear that property taxes are not to solve the problem of housing prices, but to solve the problem of fiscal distribution.
2. Will China's property tax be introduced soon?
I personally don't think so, for several reasons:
First, property taxes involve too many interests, and it is very difficult to form a consensus.
Second, the legal process for property taxes to be performed is very complex and requires a majority of the national discussions. Although the process of studying legislation has now been incorporated, it will take a relatively long time for the legal process to be completed. This process is also a process of consensus building.
Third, due to our special national conditions, China's real estate market is very differentiated, and there are many types of real estate.
Before we talked to you about this problem, we also sorted out many types of real estate, such as real estate houses, central production houses, house renovations, two-line houses and so on.
With such a huge and complex type, how to set a unified taxation standard is also a very big problem.
In addition, there is no consensus on issues such as real estate appraisal and expropriation objects.
So, I think it may take some time for property taxes to arrive.