Guan Qingyou: Three signals for the fine-tuning of the property market policy in 2021

　　Article/Sina Financial Opinion Leader Columnist Guan Qingyou

　　Editor's Note

　　This year, the "three red lines" regulate the financing of housing enterprises, the "two red lines" centralize the management of housing loans, the new house is strictly limited in price, the second-hand house implements price guidance, the property market regulation continues to upgrade, the real estate logic is comprehensively reshaped, and housing has become the main theme. In this context, the property market has accelerated its liquidation and returned to the origin of residence, and many housing enterprises with poor strategic prediction have struggled and ushered in an unprecedented test. Especially after Evergrande's risk exposure, the life of real estate developers is even more difficult, and the recent housing market can be described as a changeable situation, and heavy policies have taken turns. Yesterday, Harbin issued the "Sixteen Articles" to stabilize the property market, fired the first shot to save the city, and as the first provincial capital city in the country to release comprehensive benefits, it released a very strong policy signal, which is worth pondering. To this end, we help you clarify the underlying logic of the property market, interpret the recent blockbuster hot spots, and give future trend analysis.

　　Although the assets of residents are moving greatly, accelerating the shift from real estate to financial assets, especially after the change in the logic of real estate, the investment attributes have gradually weakened. However, real estate also has residential properties, and in the environment where the real living needs that are just needed and improved have not been fully met, as a necessity of life, real estate still retains a high degree of attention.

　　After returning to the residential attribute, history will not be simply repeated, the analysis framework of real estate has also undergone obvious changes, the previous housing prices "short-term policy, medium-term policy, long-term policy", now not fully applicable, supply and demand fundamentals back to dominate, the effect of the policy should also be distinguished. For core cities where housing is still clearly in short supply, when the policy is relaxed, the demand will most likely improve. Prices are always priced at the margin, and no matter where the long-term end of house prices is, the policy is still a good prediction signal in the short term; but for many places where housing is oversupplied, the policy is not so important, it can only slow down the rhythm, and will not change the trend. The place where the fall is relaxed will fall after it is relaxed, but it may fall more slowly.

　　Recently, the property market policy has emerged in an endless stream: the central bank's regular meeting has first mentioned "real estate" in the past 12 years, put forward "two maintenance", guided the healthy and stable development of the property market, supported reasonable housing consumption, and fine-tuning has begun; mortgage interest rates in many places have been lowered, bank lending has accelerated, housing loan policies in some areas have been loosened, and inflection points have begun to appear; Harbin multi-sector jointly issued sixteen stable property markets, alleviating the liquidity pressure of housing enterprises, enhancing housing demand, and firing the first shot to save the market. In particular, the recent acceleration of inflation, a new round of price increases has arrived, the building materials industry has risen prices across the board, raw material prices have risen to the construction of decoration terminals, and rising costs have exacerbated the concerns of rising house prices.

　　However, at present, whether it is the rare statement of the central bank or the policy relaxation in various places, it is mainly a local small move, and there is no comprehensive big move such as reducing the down payment ratio and reducing the mortgage interest rate. The central bank's first mention of "real estate" is mainly to ensure the normal housing consumption demand of the first set of just needs and the second set of improvements, and to protect reasonable housing consumption rights. On the basis of adhering to the "two red lines" housing loan centralized management and strict review of loan qualifications, the first set of differentiated credit support is at most a structural fine-tuning correction, and it is difficult to have a significant loosening of the overall real estate credit policy. Guangzhou, Foshan, Suzhou and other places began to reduce mortgage interest rates, mainly because the early mortgage interest rate rose largely, at a high level, more is to correct deviation optimization, to avoid mistaken injuries just needed, mortgage loans or to meet the down payment source compliance, with mortgage application qualifications, bank flow twice the coverage of loans and other basic requirements. Although Harbin has made a lot of efforts: on the one hand, by reducing the pre-sale permit standard, accelerating the return of pre-sale funds, reducing the land value-added tax pre-levy rate, supporting the promotional activities of housing enterprises, and reducing the cost of land acquisition for housing enterprises, harbingers have reduced the burden on housing enterprises; on the other hand, by increasing the subsidies for talents and new citizens to buy houses, relaxing the term of second-hand housing provident fund loans, reducing the threshold for applying for provident fund loans, and reducing the cost of apartment living, it is reasonable to guide the release of just needs. But it is only for the sake of stabilizing the market in some areas, and it has not been fully relaxed in the framework of housing and not speculation. The rise in the price of building materials has triggered concerns about rising house prices, some overreaction, we can not underestimate the government's determination to regulate the property market, housing is not speculation is not an empty word. More importantly, the price essence is determined by supply and demand, not by cost, not to mention that the cost of decoration in the house price is not so high.

　　Although the current downward pressure on the economy has increased, but the top level has reiterated many times that "real estate is not used as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term", it is difficult for real estate policy to have a global relaxation, at most there will be some differentiated marginal relaxation, just need to grasp the signal to choose the opportunity to enter the market. In the future, the differentiation of house prices will be further intensified, the core cities and core areas will not necessarily be able to outperform inflation, shrinking cities will inevitably escape the fate of falling, investment cost performance will become lower and lower, and it is not recommended to allocate too much. Here are a few of our judgments about the future of the real estate market:

　　01

　　Real estate logic: housing is not speculation is the main tone, living in a home is the goal, real estate to accelerate the de-financialization

　　The supply side of the "three red lines" to regulate the financing of housing enterprises, the demand side of the "two red lines" centralized management of housing loans, the implementation of strict price limits for new houses, the implementation of price guidance for second-hand houses, the continuous upgrading of property market regulation, the acceleration of real estate de-financialization, marking the end of the real estate model of high leverage, high debt, and high turnover, the transformation of real estate from the financial industry to manufacturing, the financial attributes of real estate are weakened, house prices are mainly stable, the mouth of real estate speculation is basically blocked, the cost performance of speculation has dropped sharply, returning to the source of residence, and supply and demand have become the leading factors.

　　02

　　Real estate policy: precise policy, differentiated regulation

　　The premise is to ensure policy continuity, stabilize the property market, and support just need.

　　It can be broadly divided into three categories:

　　The first type is first-tier cities, such as the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen markets have a good foundation and strong demand, and there will be no major relaxation, because once the policy is slightly loosened, there may be a sharp rebound.

　　The second category is the hot cities represented by the new first line, such as Nanjing, Suzhou, Hangzhou, etc. This kind of urban market foundation is better, the sensitivity to the policy is relatively high, there may be some small tricks to encourage just need, cautious and loose, such as lowering the settlement threshold in disguise to relax the purchase limit, relax the price limit, reduce the pre-sale threshold, increase the amount of provident fund loans, cancel the restriction on sales, reduce taxes and fees.

　　The third category is third- and fourth-tier cities, with a poor market foundation, generally facing the problem of population outflow and shrinking demand, even if it is fully relaxed, it will not help. Harbin originally had no purchase limit, the minimum down payment ratio is only 20%, has been the lowest level in the country, the mainstream is 30%, only 8 cities only 20%, but the real estate market continues to be sluggish, oversupply, inventory backlog, this time is a comprehensive loosening, but also increased the purchase subsidy, it is expected that other third- and fourth-tier cities with greater pressure will also follow suit, there may be a bottom effect in the short term, but the sustainability may not be strong.

　　03

　　Mortgage interest rate: mainly stable, differentiated credit protection just needed, the strictest and tightest period has passed

　　Since the beginning of this year, the interest rate of housing loans in many places has risen, the amount of bank housing loans has been insufficient, and the lending cycle has become longer. After the central bank's regular meeting first mentioned real estate, it asked to "safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers", and the mortgage interest rate in some areas was reduced, and the bank loan was accelerated, which just needed to usher in a long-lost good news. It is expected that the strictest and tightest period of housing loan policy has passed, and the behavior of tightening the mortgage policy by mistake will gradually correct the behavior of just need, trying to protect the normal housing consumption demand that just needs and just changed, but in the context of the Fed Taper approaching and high inflation, it is difficult to have a significant downward trend, and the recent downward adjustment is the area with larger increases in the early stage.

　　04

　　House price trend: the core cities are relatively stable, and there is a risk of correction in the third and fourth lines

　　A major feature of future housing prices is structural differentiation, and it will become more and more obvious. At present, there is no basis for a sharp and synchronous rise in real estate prices in the country, and after entering the second half of urbanization, the population will continue to gather in core large cities and metropolitan areas, thereby providing support for housing prices. It is expected that core cities such as first-tier and new first-tier cities will be relatively stable, and non-core cities should be vigilant against risks. It should be emphasized that housing is still the main tone, although the core cities have long-term value, but the income is far less than before, and a slightly better situation can barely outperform inflation.

　　05

　　Timing: For just need, the new houses of hot urban hot real estate should be on the car as soon as possible, and the second-hand houses can also be waited on

　　In the future, real estate regulation and control will show the characteristics of comprehensiveness, precision and normalization, especially the "multi-point blossoming" of hot city regulation and control policies, leaving no dead ends and difficult to reverse. Just need to adapt as soon as possible, hot real estate new houses strive to get on the car as soon as possible, or the back is getting more and more difficult. Second-hand houses have begun to appear because of the regulation effect of the guidance price, and there is still room for adjustment, which can be selected again.

　　06

　　Regional selection: core cities and core locations are preferred

　　Several elements of core cities, one is the core city in the urban agglomeration, the second is the sustained net inflow of population, the third is that the economic development foundation is good, and the fourth is that it has a certain scarcity value. In the core area, it is necessary to take into account the supporting living hardware such as subway transportation, shopping malls, supermarkets, parks, and humanistic software supporting medical and health. Even in the downturn of the property market, the property in a good location will be more resistant to falling.