Image source: Beijing News reporter Li Muyi photo
Wen | Wang Chunrui, researcher of Xinjing Think Tank
Recently, Shenzhen released the 2020 Statistical Communiqué. The data shows that the enrollment of primary schools in the city has declined for the second consecutive year, which has caused concern and heated discussion about the number of primary school enrollment and primary school students.
To measure the vitality of a city, we must not only look at the total population and economic volume, but also pay attention to the demographic characteristics of the city. To a certain extent, the number of primary school students represents the number of young people in the city, and also reflects the vitality of the city.
According to the statistics of the Ministry of Education, in 2020, there were 107.2535 million primary school students nationwide, an increase of 1.6411 million over the previous year, an increase of 1.55%.
At present, primary school students are generally born between 2008 and 2014, what characteristics do they show in different cities, and what impact may they have on the development of cities?
Chongqing has the largest number of primary school students, and Dongguan has the largest proportion of primary school students
Recently, the Xinjing think tank sorted out 25 cities with more representative changes in the number of primary school students in the past decade (2010-2019).
In terms of the number of primary school students, among the 25 key cities, there are 4 cities with more than 1 million primary school students in 2019, namely: Chongqing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Chengdu. Cities with between 800,000 and 1 million primary school students are: Zhengzhou, Beijing, Shijiazhuang, Dongguan, Shanghai and Suzhou.
The number of primary school students in 2019 in 25 cities (10,000 people) and the proportion of primary school students (%). Source: Statistical Yearbook of Localities
In terms of the proportion of primary school students in the city's permanent population, among the 25 cities, the ten cities with the highest proportion of primary school students in 2019 are: Dongguan (9.89%), Zhengzhou (9.35%), Shijiazhuang (8.87%), Shenzhen (8.53%), Xiamen (8.11%), Changsha (7.94%), Xi'an (7.74%), Suzhou (7.64%), Foshan (7.56%), Fuzhou (7.55%).
Combined with the number of primary school students and the proportion of primary school students, among these 25 cities, Chongqing had 2.0629 million primary school students in 2019, ranking first in the list, and the only city where the number of primary school students exceeded 2 million. But this is related to the fact that Chongqing's permanent population exceeds 30 million people, ranking first among cities in the country. In terms of proportion, the proportion of primary school students in Chongqing in its urban permanent population is not too high, only 5.79%.
Pan Helin, dean of the Executive College of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, said that among the first-tier cities, Shenzhen and Guangzhou have a large number of primary school students and a relatively large proportion, which is related to the continuous growth of its foreign population and the relatively high birth rate. This also reflects the relatively relaxed enrollment policies of Shenzhen and Guangzhou from the side, making it more convenient for children to enroll in school on the spot.
Among these 25 cities, the number of primary school students in Dongguan accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 9.89%.
Demographer He Yafu pointed out that the proportion of primary school students in Dongguan is relatively high, mainly because there are more young people from outside Dongguan. According to statistics, since 2010, dongguan's foreign population has always been 2-3 times the registered population. In 2019, the permanent population of Dongguan was 8.4645 million, of which the foreign population was as high as 5.9539 million, accounting for 70.34%, ranking first in the country. In addition, in terms of birth rate, Dongguan is not low, with a birth rate of 10.9 ‰ in 2010 and the highest birth rate in Dongguan in 2019 in the "new first-tier" cities, as high as 16.69 ‰.
Dongguan's ability to attract many young people has a lot to do with urban development and geographical location. In recent years, a large number of enterprises such as Huawei have moved to Dongguan, providing a large number of employment opportunities. In addition, Dongguan is closer to Shenzhen and Guangzhou, and as the cost of education in first-tier cities climbs, many young people choose to let their children go to school in Dongguan.
In addition to Dongguan, Zhengzhou (9.35%), Shijiazhuang (8.87%), Shenzhen (8.53%), Xiamen (8.11%) the proportion of primary school students are relatively high, especially Shijiazhuang, Zhengzhou and Shenzhen permanent population has exceeded 10 million, the number of primary school students in these cities is large, the proportion is also high, indicating that the population structure of these cities tends to be younger.
Shenzhen has the largest increase in primary school students and the largest increase in Suzhou
The Xinjing think tank combed the changes in the number of primary school students in these 25 cities from 2010 to 2019 and found that in the past decade, the number of primary school students in Shenzhen, Suzhou, Zhengzhou, Chengdu, Dongguan and other cities has increased by more than 300,000.
Among them, the number of primary school students in Shenzhen increased the most, from 589,500 in 2010 to 1,069,000 in 2019, an increase of 479,500, an increase of 81.34%.
From the perspective of the growth rate of the number of primary school students in the past ten years, Suzhou has the largest increase, reaching 121.83%; followed by Xiamen (95.51%) and Shenzhen (81.34%).
The number of primary school students in 25 cities from 2009 to 2019 (10,000) and the increase (%) in the decade. Source: Statistical Yearbook of Localities
The growth of urban primary school students is relatively large, which must have a certain relationship with population growth. Through the statistics of the population size changes of these 25 cities in the past ten years, it is found that Shenzhen's resident population growth in the past 10 years also ranks first in the country, from 10.3579 million in 2010 to 13.4388 million in 2019. Shenzhen is the only city in the country with a population growth of more than 3 million in 10 years.
The total number of permanent residents in 25 cities changed in the ten-year period from 2009 to 2019 (10,000 people). Source: Statistical Yearbook of Localities
Shenzhen's population and the number of primary school students have increased significantly, which fully reflects Shenzhen's strong ability to "absorb powder". This is mainly due to shenzhen's rapid economic development and attractive talent policy.
In 2020, among the four first-tier cities, Shenzhen has the fastest economic growth. At the same time, Shenzhen also has many famous enterprises, providing more development opportunities for young people. In addition, Shenzhen's settlement policy is relatively relaxed, the subsidy range is larger, and it has also attracted a large number of talents.
In addition to Shenzhen, in the past ten years, the population size of Chengdu, Xi'an and Zhengzhou has increased by the number of primary school students. These cities have not only experienced the expansion of administrative territory, but also introduced more policies and measures to attract talents.
It is worth noting that the fastest growth rate in the number of primary school students is Suzhou.
He Yafu said that Suzhou's GDP is the first in Jiangsu, and it is also the only prefecture-level city to enter the top ten GDP in the country, so it attracts more people from other places. Coupled with Suzhou's relaxed settlement conditions and enrollment policies, many foreigners have been attracted to settle in Suzhou, and their children have studied in Suzhou. The rapid growth of the number of primary school students in Suzhou has further highlighted suzhou's attractiveness to young people.
Compared with the rapid growth of primary school students in the above cities, the number of primary school students in Chongqing, Changchun and Harbin has experienced negative growth in the past decade. Although Chongqing's population base is large, the urbanization rate is relatively low, and there is an outflow of population.
Similarly, the number of primary school students in Harbin and Changchun has decreased sharply, and the number of primary school students in Shenyang has not increased much, which coincides with the trend of relatively slow economic growth and serious population aging in northeast China in recent years.
Judging from the current geographical distribution of the number of primary school students, the cities in the Pearl River Delta are relatively stronger in terms of population carrying capacity.
Many cities have a degree gap, and Guangdong's education investment has increased significantly
The number of primary school students in some cities has grown rapidly, and there is a problem of degree gaps.
A 2019 survey by the Education Bureau of Shenzhen Longhua District found that the degree gap in Longhua District reached 11,000 in 2020, of which nearly 8,000 were in the first grade of primary school.
Dongcheng Subdistrict of Dongguan City issued a 2020 public primary and secondary school degree warning in April 2020, saying that there will be about 900 first-grade degree gaps in public primary schools in the fall of 2020.
According to the Provincial Basic Education Conference held in Jiangsu Province in 2019, the total degree gap in Jiangsu is expected to reach 1.853 million in 2020, and about 1,986 schools and 121,000 full-time teachers will need to be added to meet the needs of school-age education.
In this regard, all localities have increased investment in education, expanded schools, recruited teachers, and added new degrees. According to statistics, from 2015 to 2019, the total investment in education in China increased by 39% in 4 years, of which in 2019, the total investment in education in the country was 5,017.812 billion yuan, an increase of 8.74% over the previous year.
Among the education funds invested in various provinces, a total of 15 provinces and municipalities directly under the Central Government exceeded 100 billion yuan in education funds in 2019, and the top three listed are Guangdong Province, Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province. Among them, Guangdong's general public budget education expenditure reached 321.777 billion yuan, an increase of 14.7% over the previous year, and the total investment and growth rate ranked first in the country, far exceeding the second ranked Jiangsu Province.
The large number of primary school students and the large number of young people set off the development vitality and development potential of the city. Therefore, relevant cities should further increase investment in education to meet the needs of young children's schooling, enhance the carrying capacity of cities, and then attract more young people.
Some provinces in 2019 general public budget education expenditure (yuan) and increase. Data source: Announcement of education funding statistics in 2019
Editors: Ke Rui, Zhang Xiaoyuan Proofreader: Wu Xingfa
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Source: Beijing News