Prologue: Promise everyone's dry goods are coming, and the road to compound interest on White Horse Avenue (2) focuses on the study of deep investment logic.
We will restore the whole process of each case attack at that time, the article will be very long, it will take 3 to 5 articles to write a complete case, today is the first part of the whole article. Everyone goes to study word by word, which is worth a lot of money.
Wuliangye we shot for the first time was at 121 yuan, and the second position increase point was around 110, which was the hand that came out when the crowd panicked and fell to the stop board, which is the second band of our liquor. The last time the band was at 2440, Gujing Gongjiu and Shunxin Agriculture were shot, and then all changed to Wuliangye and left the market between 250 and 260.
First, Wuliangye three major adjustments:
1, Wuliangye in the last wave of bull market from 1849 ~ 5178, 3.55 yuan rose to 24 yuan, it should be said that it is not a failure, the low point to the highest point rose 5 times. During the same period, the stocks of the ChiNext board rose less than 40 times, which cannot be called bull stocks. However, Wuliangye's stock market crash after 2015 showed excellent bearability, and the stock price fell from 24 yuan to 12.44 yuan, that is, the waist cut.
2, Wuliangye from 2015 to 2021 high point of 354, an increase of more than 25 times. But in the winemaking sector, its rally is not the best. In the past 5 years to the present, after two waist cuts, when the market fell from 3587 to 2440, the stock price was slashed, and the weekly K line was very clear.
3, looking back at its past 5 years, the first wave of rising market from July 2015 to January 2018, in two and a half years, the stock price rose from 12.44 to 85, an increase of 5.8 times. In the same period, the broader market index fell from 5178 to 2440, and the trend was completely irrelevant to the broader market.
4. In reality, many shareholders are studying the point of the market every day, what is the relationship between the trend of Wuliangye in the past few years and the market? Even if the market plummets like that, it can't stop its rise. Many people advocate high throwing and low suction, advocating short-term and swing bands, and feel that the daily fluctuations are very large and can't stand it. How many people can earn more than twenty times in the past few years of Wuliangye? But in the midst of it, facing the fluctuations of stock prices every day, how many people can hold it?
Second, Wuliangye financial report analysis:
1, caused Wuliangye from 2015 to 2018, two and a half years of time 5 times bull stocks, what is its principle? Looking back and opening its earnings report, we will find at a glance.
2, 2014 compared with 2013, the performance declined, the net profit growth rate of -27.2%, 2015 performance growth rate returned to positive, 2016 began to run, 2017 accelerated. After the 2015 stock market crash, the adjusted low stock price was 12.44 yuan, while the earnings per share of the year were 1.62 yuan, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of about 8 times.
3, but at the time of 2440, (that is, the market bottom of the historical bottom in 2018, the whole industry that year, we are the only one to predict the formation of this historical bottom). The lowest point of the adjustment was generated on November 2, 2018, and the stock price was 39.58 yuan, which was 11.4 times the price-earnings ratio for the performance of the year. The highest point was generated on January 19, 2018, the stock price was 85.4, and the price-earnings ratio of 3.47 yuan per share for the performance of the year was 24.6 times.
4. The average valuation of the SSE 50 at 2440 is between 7.5 times and 8 times, and the price-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 is between 8.7 and 9.2 times. Wuliangye has no difference from the valuation of the index in the same period, but the stock price has risen by 5 or 6 times, and it is clear that the rise in the stock price is driven by performance.
3. Global indices for the same period:
1. On March 20, 2020, after a year, the Shanghai Composite Index once again generated a market floor (2647 points), and the global outbreak of the new crown epidemic caused great panic in the stock market. U.S. stocks are plummeting, even Buffett has said that he has lived for a long time, and the Dow Jones index has also plunged continuously to end the 10-year bull market, falling from 29568 points to 18213 points, a decline of 38%.
2, the United Kingdom FTSE 100 index, the decline also reached 38%, from 7903 to 4898 points. At that time, I watched the death toll of the new crown during the day and watched the Stock Market dive in Europe and the United States at night. In fact, the British stock market from April 2000 to the high point of 2018, 19 years of about 3500-7500 points of fluctuations back and forth, the United Kingdom's accession to the European Union did not take advantage, the integration of the European Union, so that the British economy stagnated, and the stock market is a barometer of the economy faithfully reflects the British economic situation, accession to the European Union is a failure!
Today, the UK must leave the EU, it must be done. And Li Ka-shing's bottom of the Uk, it is precisely the cheapest time for British assets, superhuman old spicy people have to serve, later we will use a detailed article to explain. The EU is actually a big pot of rice, the big countries take away the monetary power of small countries, and the small countries take advantage of the situation to eat big pot rice, and do not work desperately to ask for money. The United States fooled the European Union into forming a community, so that the entire European Union fell into endless internal friction, and the wealth of the developed countries in the European Union was not inferior to that of the United States, and even some countries were far above the United States. Today, after 20 years, the gap between the EU and the United States is getting wider and wider, the EU has raised lazy people for nearly 20 years, and finally dragged the rich down, the monetary union formed without sovereignty is not reliable, and the future direction of the EU is not the focus of this study.
3. Russia's index has directly cut through the waist in this round of the epidemic, falling from 1651 points to 808 points, which is unbearable;
4, A shares in this round of the epidemic performance is very prominent, the reason is that in the past few years A shares did not rise, the valuation is cheap enough, in 2020 the market fell from 3127 points to 2647 points, corresponding to the SSE 50 P/E ratio is 8 times, CSI 300 P/E ratio is 9 times, I named it the historical bottom of the "market bottom".
Fourth, the requirements of the consumer company's performance of the main rising wave:
1. Our requirements for the performance of the main wave, the net profit increase of 15% is passed. 20% are qualified and 25% are excellent. It is modeled on consumer stocks, and Wuliangye is a very classic consumer stock.
2. Let's take a look at Wuliangye's return on net assets in the past few years, the return on net assets in 2015 was 14.93%; the return on net assets in 2016 was 15.01%; the return on net assets in 2017 was 19.38%; the return on net assets in 2018 was 22.8%; the return on net assets in 2019 was 25.26%; and the return on net assets in 2020 was 24.94%;
3. Our requirements for the return on net assets of consumer companies are 15% passing, 20% qualified, and 25% excellent. This indicator Wuliangye is far inferior to Guizhou Moutai, so whether it is at the lowest point of adjustment or the high point of a round of market, Guizhou Moutai will be more than 10% more expensive than Wuliangye.