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The United States launched the "war on terror" in Afghanistan for 20 years and invested a lot of resources to support the Afghan government. Just over a month after the Accelerated Withdrawal of the United States, the Afghan government and army collapsed in full force under the Taliban's fierce offensive, out of the most pessimistic estimates of the United States and the West. Afghan Acting Interior Minister Abdul Sattar Mirzaquale announced on the 15th that Kabul will transfer power to the "transitional government", and according to the media, Afghan President Ghani has left Afghanistan. On the same day, A Taliban spokesman announced that their forces had marched into Kabul. The mission of the Afghan Government appears to have come to an end, and the situation in Afghanistan has turned a new page. The Observer Network interviewed Mustafa Haider Said, executive director of the Pakistan-China Society, to express his views on the situation around Afghanistan and future development.
Mustafa Haider Said was interviewed by Observer Network
【Interview/Observer Network Zhou Yuanfang, Liu Qianquan】
Observer Network: The situation in Afghanistan is changing rapidly, and some media analysts believe that this will bring some negative effects to pakistan's economy, including the impact of refugee shocks and potential terrorist attacks on the economic environment, but in fact, the Taliban regime change process is more peaceful than the outside world predicts.
Mustafa: I think the most important thing for the current situation is security, stability and friendly relations with neighboring countries. As long as these aspects are guaranteed, we can think of this as a peaceful and smooth process of power transfer, whether inside and outside Afghanistan, where human life can be respected and the security of the people can be guaranteed, and I think that should be the most important.
Second, there are economic and commercial interests. So far, the Afghan Taliban have consistently welcomed the Belt and Road Initiative and Chinese investment in the region.
I believe that as long as the Afghan Taliban can do these things, for the time being, their coming to power will not have a negative impact on the regional situation.
Of course, we must observe whether the Afghan Taliban's commitments to China, Pakistan and other neighboring countries are respected. Because we don't want Afghanistan to provide shelter and shelter for organizations that endanger neighboring countries, such as you know, some East Turkistan terrorists and some anti-Pakistani elements have been hiding in Afghanistan in the past. As long as such a thing does not happen again, we believe that the situation in the Afghan region can continue to develop in the direction of peace and stability.
Map of Afghanistan
Observer Network: Do you think that changes in the situation in Afghanistan will be linked to the security situation in Pakistan?
Mustafa: Pakistan has been a "model student" for accepting refugees in the past. When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in the 1980s, Pakistan hosted millions of displaced Afghan refugees. Pakistan is the only country that has received so many Afghan refugees. So whatever happens in Afghanistan will definitely have some impact on Pakistan in the end. If Pakistan is not affected in any way, it is certainly not right, because on our long border, there are frequent people exchanges between the two sides. (Pakistan's border with Afghanistan is 2,430 kilometers long – Observer's Note)
Pakistan believes that the Afghan Government should be able to represent the Afghan people and that any Government that comes to power will support it as long as it is understood and supported by the Afghan people.
At the same time, Pakistan is well aware of its core interests. We do not want the situation in Afghanistan to be exploited by some hostile countries to create instability in the region. Pakistan and China have some common interests in Afghanistan, so there has been close coordination and cooperation between our two countries. The "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor" is a concrete embodiment of the common interests of China and Pakistan. China's Xinjiang is very important to the Belt and Road Initiative, and if Xinjiang is negatively affected by the situation in Afghanistan, it will also affect Pakistan's interests.
CPEC
Secondly, China and Pakistan face a common threat of terrorism. Both China and Pakistan have faced the threat of terrorism in the past, and we both hope that by working with the Afghan Taliban, we can address this issue and ensure that this does not happen again in the future.
Third, traffic should be rushed. Afghanistan borders Iran and many Central Asian countries, and Asia's land lines of communication to Europe can also be routed through Afghanistan. The Wakhan Corridor, in particular, is of paramount importance both commercially and strategically. Opening this route is a long-standing dream, and Afghanistan can be part of this route, where Pakistan, China, and Afghanistan have common interests. These common interests can be achieved if there is good cooperation between the three parties. However, we also believe that the United States has betrayed the Afghan people.
Observer Network: What do you think is the main reason why the United States is about to reach the 20th anniversary of its entry into Afghanistan, and in the past 20 years, the United States has not brought peace to the Afghan people and the surrounding areas, let alone economic development? Is the pursuit of regional peace and development the original intention of the United States to enter Afghanistan?
Mustafa: The United States spent trillions of dollars to invade Afghanistan. If trillions of dollars had been invested in developing education, building universities and health care, Afghanistan today would be a whole new country. Now trillions of dollars are being spent on military operations, using violence to prop up a regime imposed on the Afghan people.
(From 2001 to April 2021, the United States spent a total of $2.261 trillion in the War in Afghanistan, including $933 billion for emergency operations overseas; another $443 billion from the Department of Defense's war base budget; $296 billion from caring for Afghan war veterans; and an additional $59 billion from the State Department,, according to detailed statistics from Brown University's Costs of War Program.) In addition, $530 billion is spent on interest on war debt over the past 20 years. Observer Net Note. ）
Image credit: "War Cost Project"
The United States invaded Afghanistan originally to eliminate the Taliban and eliminate and arrest the so-called "terrorist leaders" in Afghanistan. But today we see that the United States has reached an agreement with the so-called "terrorists" it used to eliminate, which once again demonstrates the double standard of American diplomacy: according to the needs of their political interests, some countries and peoples can sometimes be identified as "terrorists"; also because of the needs of political interests, the same group of "terrorists" can be transformed into legitimate participants in international politics.
Now, through the example of [the situation in Afghanistan], we see that it is a slander that they have called [the Afghan Taliban] "terrorists". The key is that the label of "terrorist" is distributed not on any principle, but only on political needs.
In another example, Pompeo, the second secretary of state of the Trump administration, removed the "East Turkistan" terrorist organization from the us blacklist of terrorist organizations. Even if it is actually a terrorist organization, the United States removed it from the blacklist just because it was against China and in the political and strategic interests of the United States. Therefore, the politics (action) of the United States in the region is not principled, but is based on selective and narrow political interests.
I can also make a comparison that the Soviet Union supported the Najibura government in 1989, when the United States and Pakistan supported the Afghan Taliban to seize power. It took us a full 3 years to overthrow the Najibura government. And the collapse of the Afghan government today, not even 3 months, is another comparison.
Why was this downfall so fast? Because there is no resistance, as you say, this is a handover of "peace", and we can also see from the media, without any resistance. Of course there have been some violent incidents, but overall, there has been no fighting. We don't see the system that the United States promised to build, and we didn't see the commitment to train the Afghan Air Force and strengthen the military.
I hope that Afghanistan will be able to turn a new page and that an Afghan Government, driven, owned and led by the Afghan people, can be established. I believe that as long as the Afghan people are satisfied, China and Pakistan will not have a particular preference for which government will govern Afghanistan. We will work together to promote the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and build connectivity and win-win cooperation.
Observer Network: A Chinese businessman in Afghanistan that we recently interviewed believes that the situation seen in Afghanistan is not as tense as the outside world describes, and what Afghanistan needs is still a large number of basic industrial facilities, especially power and transportation infrastructure.
Mustafa: Pakistan is an important supporter of regional economic development. Under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, Pakistan itself is promoting large-scale economic construction. We are building a number of special economic zones, roads and power projects. For Pakistan, it is imperative to establish good commercial, trade and market access relations with neighboring countries, including but not limited to China, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and, of course, Afghanistan and Iran.
I think Afghanistan can be a good trading partner for Pakistan, and Afghanistan can be a gateway to other regions. Whatever model of economic development the Afghan side wishes to adopt, Pakistan supports it. We see Afghanistan as a partner because the Afghan people need jobs, they need economic growth, they need business opportunities and jobs. This can only be achieved if the Afghan economy recovers. Pakistan is in a position to help Afghanistan develop, and I think that's good.
At the same time, I think it's also very important that this new dispensation doesn't become a shelter for certain countries, especially those that try to create discord between Afghanistan and Pakistan, those that try to interfere in Pakistan's internal affairs. We want peace and stability in the region, a peaceful Afghanistan, a successful Pakistan; a successful Afghanistan, will be Pakistan's success.
Now is the time for an economic revolution in Afghanistan, and economic construction should be the way forward, otherwise we will see a lot of uncertainty caused by chaos and infrastructure will be missing due to changes in government. The fundamental way forward for the future lies in economic development and growth.
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Guancha: Thank you for taking your time to have the interview with us. I would like to ask you several questions regarding the situation in Afghanistan and its impact. Regarding the rapid changes in the country, some media says that it will affect the economy in Pakistan negatively. A possible influx of refugees and potential terrorist attack could dampen the economy. But in fact, the transfer of power has been very peaceful. What impact do you think the situation would bring to the regional security and economy.
Mustafa: I think that the most important things are stability, internal security, and friendly relations with the neighboring countries. As long as that is there, I think that a friendly and peaceful transition of power where everyone is alive, where the human lives are given priority, where the people's security is given priority, both inside Afghanistan and outside Afghanistan. I think that should be on the top of the list. After that, secondary is economy and commerce. And so far, the Taliban has welcomed the Belt and Road Initiative and Chinese investment in the region. I think that as long as these ingredients are there, this is no negative effect in the region. As of now, however, we also have to see that the commitments which the Afghan Taliban had made to China, to Pakistan, to neighboring countries, a gap, because we do not want Afghanistan to give refuge to some organizations which are against the neighboring countries. As you know, that in the past there have been some anti- Pakistan elements in Afghanistan.
So as long as such things are not repeated again, we think that we can move forward peacefully in regard to Afghanistan and the region can still continue to move forward.
Guancha:What about Pakistan, specifically? Will the security situation of Afghanistan affect the local situation in Pakistan?
Mustafa:Pakistan has been the model host to refugees in the past. When the soviet invasion took place in the late 80s, early 90s, Pakistan hosted millions of Afghan refugees who were displaced from their homes in Afghanistan. We were the only country that hosted so many refugees from Afghanistan. Whatever happens in Afghanistan will, certainly, at the end of the day, have some effect on Pakistan. It would be wrong to say that Pakistan remains unaffected because we neighbour with them. On our border, a lot of the time, people come and go. Pakistan believes that the government in Afghanistan should be representative of the Afghan people. And the government should have support of the people of Afghanistan. And Pakistan will support no matter which government comes into power as long as the people who understand that happy.
But Pakistan is also very clear on its core interests. We do not want Afghanistan to be used by hostile countries to create instability in the region. We, Pakistan and China have some shared interests in Afghanistan. And that's why there's been close coordination and close cooperation between both the countries. Some examples of the shared interests are the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Now, the CEPC is shared interest of China and Pakistan, because if Xinjiang is negatively affected from Afghanistan, that affects Pakistan. Because Xinjiang is also very important for the Belt and Road initiative. Secondly, Pakistan and China have a shared threat of terrorism. China has also experienced terrorism in the past. So has Pakistan. In Afghanistan, we have a shared challenge of terrorism, which we want to work with the Taliban to address to make sure that there is no a such thing in the future. Number three, connectivity. Afghanistan have borders with a lot of central Asian countries, and also eventually with Iran. The route to Europe can also be through Afghanistan. So that for connectivity, for the Wakhan Corridor, which is very important commercially and strategically. That the dream of connectivity is there, and Afghanistan can be a part of that. So we have some shared interests there. And these shared interests can be achieved. If there is good trilateral cooperation, in Afghanistan. However, we also believe that, the United States has betrayed the people of Afghanistan.
Guancha:Talking about the U.S., it entered Afghanistan 20 years ago and throughout the years, it has not brought peace to either people of Afghanistan or neighboring countries and regions, let alone economic development. Why is that? Isn't the pursuit of regional peace and development the initial aim of the U.S. by entering Afghanistan?
Mustafa: You see, the United States has spent trillions of dollars, trillions of others on the invasion of Afghanistan. If those trillions of dollars had been spend on education, universities, health care, Afghanistan today would be a new country. It would be a very good one. But those billions of dollars was spent on military, on violence, and on imposing regime on the Afghan people. As you know very well, the US invaded Afghanistan to remove the Taliban, to remove and to catch the terrorist leaders in Afghanistan.
But today, the United States has done a deal with the same so-called “terrorists” that it removed before. We see that the U.S. diplomacy has double standards. Sometimes when it suits them, some countries and people can become terrorists. But then when it suits their political interests, then those same terrorists can become a legitimate actor in international politics.
We see through this example that casting the aspersion of terrorist, the label of terrorists, is not based on principle, but it is based on politics. That is the key. You can take another example, madam. Mr.Pompei, the second foreign secretary of the US in the previous government led by trump, removed ETIM from the terrorist blacklist. And even though it is a terrorist organization, because it is anti-China, they were removed from the blacklist. Because it supports us political strategic interests. We see that the U.S. politics in the region is not based on principles, and on merit is based on selective, narrow political interests.
And you can see from a comparison I would like to make, if you allow. When the Soviet-backed government in 1989, under the leadership of President Najibullah, was there, it took 3 years for it to fall. At that time the Afghan Taliban was called the “mujahadeen” , and they were supported by Pakistan and United States. But at that time that government took 3 years to fall. But this government, it did not even take 3 months to fall.
So there is a comparison. And this time, the reason why it is so fast was because there was no resistance. We can see on the media that as you very right, he said it was peaceful, because there was no resistance. Predominantly, there was some violent incidents, but overall, there was no fight. We see that the institutions which had been promised to be built by the United States were not there. The capacity was not there. The training (was not there). Afghan army had an air force. I did not see any (improvement) of that air force. I hope that we can see and turn a chapter, a turn a new leaf in Afghanistan, a country which is driven by people of Afghanistan, which is owned by the people of Afghanistan, and which is led by the people of Afghanistan. As long as the people of Afghanistan are happy, I think that China and Pakistan have no favorites in Afghanistan. We will cooperate to take forward connectivity, see back, and women cooperation.
Guancha：Recently, we have interviewed a Chinese businessman in Afghanistan. He told us that the situation in Afghanistan is not as tense as described by the outside world. What Afghanistan still needs is a huge number of basic industry facilities, especially electricity and transportation infrastructure. We know, in recent years, some neighboring countries have lend help to Afghanistan for recovery and reconstruction. In your opinion, is Pakistan happy to see regional countries and people taking the lead in peaceful development and economic development of the region or not.
Mustafa: Pakistan is a big proponent of economic development. Pakistan itself is undergoing massive economic development, particularly in the case of the Belt and Road initiative. We are developing special economic zones, roads and power projects. For Pakistan, it is imperative that it has good economic relationship of commerce, trade and market access of neighboring countries, including but not limited to China, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan, and Iran.
I think that Afghanistan can be a very good partner for trade, and Afghanistan also can be a gate. Pakistan supports any economic development that I understand which one to take. In fact, I see a partner in Afghanistan, because people of Afghanistan, they need jobs, economic growth, business opportunities and employment opportunities . And that can only happen if we try to revive the economy. Pakistan is in a position where it can do this. It can assist the one is done. So I think that's very good. And also, I think what is important is that this new dispensation will not have safe havens of other countries, other countries which were trying to so discord between Afghanistan and Pakistan, countries which have interfered in Pakistan's internal affairs. And, we want peace and stability and a peaceful Afghanistan is a successful Pakistan. A successful Afghanistan is Pakistan's success. Economy is the way forward. Right now is the time for an economic revolution in Pakistan. Because otherwise, we see that a lot of the basic amenities are missing because of the change in government. There is a lot of uncertainty in chaos. We feel that the way forward lies in economy and economic growth.
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