Producer: Sina Finance Listed Company Research Institute
Author: Langtou Diet/ Hao Xian
"The liquor industry is at the most severe and complex development point in history", at the 2023 China International Famous Liquor Expo, Zeng Congqin, chairman of Wuliangye Group, made such a judgment.
Since the second quarter of last year, the liquor industry has experienced problems such as the cold spring sugar meeting, sales falling short of expectations, channel pressure on goods, distributors dumping goods, and product upside down. In this case, the industry began to carry out a new round of reshuffle, the market share concentration was further improved, the losses of small and medium-sized wine companies increased, and the performance of famous wine and large wine companies was relatively stable.
In 2023, 20 listed liquor companies will achieve revenue of 412.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.65%, which is the same as the total revenue growth rate of 15.13% in the previous year. The net profit was 155.146 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.88%, and the growth rate decreased by 1.45 percentage points year-on-year.
Under the overall stability, the undercurrent is surging, the growth of high-end liquor has maintained steady growth, and the nationalization of sub-high-end liquor is seriously differentiated, and many companies have obvious sluggish growth, such as the revenue of alcoholic liquor fell by 30.14%, and the revenue of Shuijingfang increased by only 6%. Due to the stable fundamentals, regional wine companies have achieved good growth in the context of the recovery of consumer demand for public banquets. In contrast, small liquor companies that mainly focus on low-end liquor, such as Golden Seed Liquor and Huangtai Liquor, have fallen into losses.
Net profit: Shunxin Agriculture, Golden Seed Liquor, and Huangtai Liquor fell into losses Wuliangye's gross profit margin is not as good as that of Luzhou Laojiao
In 2023, 20 listed liquor companies will achieve a net profit of 155.146 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.88%, and a decrease of 1.45 percentage points compared with the previous year.
Kweichow Moutai accounted for nearly half of the net profit of listed liquor companies, followed by Wuliangye, accounting for 20%. Although from the perspective of revenue ranking, Yanghe's revenue is higher than that of Shanxi Fenjiu and higher than that of Luzhou Laojiao; However, the net profit ranking is completely opposite, and Luzhou Laojiao is much higher than Yanghe and Shanxi Fenjiu.
This is mainly because of the high proportion of high-end products in Luzhou Laojiao, from the perspective of gross profit margin, Luzhou Laojiao is as high as 88.3%, about 13 percentage points higher than Shanxi Fenjiu and Yanghe shares; The net profit margin of Luzhou Laojiao was 43.95%, which was also more than 10 percentage points higher than that of Shanxi Fenjiu and Yanghe.
It is worth mentioning that although it is also a representative of high-end liquor, the gross profit margin of Wuliangye is nearly 13 percentage points lower than that of Luzhou Laojiao, and the net profit margin is 6 percentage points lower than that of Luzhou Laojiao. This may be due to the large scale of revenue from Wuliangye's low-end products.
Last year, there were 3 liquor companies in the red, namely Shunxin Agriculture, Golden Seed Liquor, and Huangtai Liquor, of which Golden Seed Liquor and Shunxin Agriculture are also losing money in 2022.
From the perspective of net profit growth rate, the net profit of three companies declined, namely Huangtai Liquor, Liquor and Laobai Dry Liquor. In addition, the net profit growth rate of Shede Liquor, Shuijingfang and Yanghe shares was less than 10%.
There were 10 liquor companies with a net profit growth rate of more than 20% last year, and there are 6 companies left after excluding the 4 companies with a net profit decline in 2022, and the net profit growth rate of these 6 companies has exceeded 20% for two consecutive years, namely Gujing Gongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Tianyoude Liquor, and Jinshiyuan.
Gross profit margin & net profit margin: Last year, half of the wine companies' net profit margin declined Alcoholic Liquor, Shede Liquor, and Laobai Dry Liquor were the most serious
In 2023, the median gross profit margin and net profit margin of the 20 A-share listed liquor companies will be 75.12% and 24.18%. Among them, Kweichow Moutai is the only listed liquor company with a gross profit margin of more than 90% and a net profit margin of more than 50%.
From the perspective of gross profit margin ranking, the TOP5 are Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shuijingfang, Gujing Gongjiu, and Jiugui Liquor, the latter three are the representatives of sub-high-end liquor, among which Shuijingfang is the most typical. This makes its gross profit margin reach 83.16%, second only to Luzhou Laojiao. However, the company's net profit margin is not high, 25.62% in 2023, which is the same as the industry median, mainly because the company has maintained an ultra-high expense ratio in order to promote sub-high-end products, and the sales expense ratio in 2023 will reach 26%, ranking among the top five in the industry.
The lowest gross profit margin was Shunxin Agriculture, with only 31.8%, followed by Golden Seed Wine (40.32%) and Elite (48.23%). Last year, the gross profit margin of 7 companies was declining, and the more serious declines were Shede Liquor, Shuijingfang, and Drunkard Liquor.
From the perspective of net profit margin, the top 5 are Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye, Yingjiagong Liquor, and Shanxi Fenjiu, and the three high-end liquor companies are at the top. After excluding the three loss-making liquor companies, the lowest net profit margin was Rock (5.19%) and Tianyoude Liquor (7.67%), and the net profit margin of Jinhui Liquor and Laobai Dry Liquor was also less than 15%.
Last year, half of the net profit margins of liquor companies were declining, excluding the loss-making Huangtai Liquor, and the most serious decline was Drunkard Liquor, Shede Liquor, and Laobai Dry Liquor.
Expense ratio: The sales expense rate of rock shares and alcoholic liquor is abnormally high
The net profit margin of listed liquor companies is directly related to the expense ratio.
In 2023, the median sales expense ratio of the 20 listed liquor companies is 17.24%, with 9 companies exceeding 20% and two exceeding 30%, namely Rock Shares (44.25%) and Jiuguijiu (32.22%), which greatly reduced the net profit margin, which was 5.19% and 19.36% respectively.
Behind these two companies are Laobai Dry Liquor, Gujing Gongjiu and Shuijingfang, of which Shuijingfang is the representative of sub-high-end liquor, Gujing Gongjiu is a regional liquor enterprise that promotes nationalization, and Laobai Dry Liquor belongs to the low-end liquor enterprises that have expanded through mergers and acquisitions. Whether it is nationalization or product upgrading, sales investment is required, and in this regard, the smaller the revenue scale, the more passive the wine company.
It is worth noting that the sales expense ratio of Zhongyanghe, a leading wine company, was the highest, reaching 16.26%, an increase of 2.38 percentage points over the previous year. The sales expense ratio of Shanxi Fenjiu was 10.08%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9 percentage points. This is an important reason why the net profit margin of Shanxi Fenjiu is higher than that of Yanghe.
In addition, the sales expense rate of Gujing Gongjiu, which has a revenue of more than 20 billion, reached 26.84%, ranking fourth. Gujing Gongjiu is a regional liquor leader, relying on ultra-high expense rates to drive sub-high-end upgrades and expansion outside the province, but this has also lowered the net profit margin of Gujing Gongjiu.
Last year, there were three companies that significantly increased their sales expense ratios, namely Jiujiu Liquor, Huangtai Liquor, and Jinshiyuan, of which the revenue of Jiujiu Liquor fell by 30%, and a large number of investments did not bring growth.
From the perspective of management expenses, there are 5 companies with a management expense rate of more than 10%, namely Huangtai Liquor, Tianyoude Liquor, Jinhui Liquor, Golden Seed Liquor, and Shede Liquor.
Sales expenses and management expenses account for the vast majority of the expenses of wine companies, these two expenses account for 52.82% of the revenue, rock shares reached 52.82%, followed by Huangtai Liquor and Jiugui Liquor, both more than 38%, in addition to Tianyoude Liquor and Laobai dry liquor also more than 35%.
There are two main types of companies in the top ranking, one is the low-end wine companies with small revenue, and the other is the sub-high-end wine companies, the former is enough to increase the expense ratio due to the small scale and a small amount of investment, and the latter has to invest a large amount to promote growth in order to build brands and promote products.
