Corn market: At present, the domestic corn market is showing a trend of ups and downs, however, the market fundamentals are gradually improving, and the difficulty of corn falling again increases, and the market may gradually enter a node of slow recovery!
At present, the corn market is long and short, and the specific analysis is as follows:
Positive factors: (1) The surplus grain at the grassroots level has bottomed out, the progress of grain sales in Northeast China has exceeded 95%, the progress of grain sales in North China has exceeded 88%, the surplus grain at the grassroots level has decreased, the corn supply pattern has gradually changed, and the risk of selling pressure has decreased significantly;
(2), the international corn market bucked the trend, the southern market, the corn quotation in the sales area rose, the port corn price continued to rise, the downstream feed and deep processing enterprises domestic trade corn procurement enthusiasm increased, the Northeast port orders limited increase, due to the reduction of grain sources in the port, the port corn quotation was raised, which further drove the Northeast channel price mentality;
(3), North China corn grain sales pressure to reduce, channels and enterprise inventory corn can be used to about 4 and a half months, from the autumn grain market is still more than half a month, there is a gap in the supply of domestic corn pressure, demand follow-up enthusiasm has become stronger, enterprises on the dip to replenish the phenomenon of increases!
Bearish factors:
On the one hand, the supply of spot corn is relatively loose, the surplus grain inventory at the grassroots level is sufficient, and some channels have a certain pressure to accumulate the warehouse.
On the other hand, the demand follow-up is poor, the breeding market is generally sluggish, the feed consumption level is low, and the starch goods of deep processing enterprises are poor, and many enterprises have begun to overhaul the machine, and the level of grain has declined!
Superimposed, the supply of imported corn and rice is loose, and there is a certain pressure on corn consumption to be replaced!
Therefore, under the long and short game, the corn spot market is in a stage of weak and stable shocks, I personally believe that in the short term, the market lacks a clear basis for ups and downs, and the Northeast market will still be weakly stable, and sporadic quotations are subject to a narrow range of grain sources! In the North China market, due to the pressure of the channel, some enterprises follow up cautiously, spot corn is mainly sideways, and enterprises may maintain the situation of ups and downs!
Entering June, the outlook for corn prices will gradually become stronger, the grassroots surplus grain will be gradually digested, and the price will continue to rise!
Oil prices have been adjusted, and the largest oil price drop of the year has entered the countdown......
It is understood that next Wednesday, the 10th oil price adjustment node will be opened this year, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices may be under pressure!
According to the data of the institution, in the 10 working days of this round of price adjustment, within 70% of the end, the level of change in domestic crude oil is -4.55%, and the price of gasoline and diesel is estimated to be reduced by 230 yuan per ton, which is equivalent to an estimated decline of 1.7~2.1 cents per liter!
Oil prices "fell upside down", the first price reduction in the year or will exceed 0.2 yuan / liter, this will also be the third oil price reduction in the year, the average price of domestic 92 gasoline is expected to fall below 8 yuan / liter!
Taking Beijing as an example, before the price adjustment node, on May 12, Beijing's mainstream No. 92 gasoline price was 8.19 yuan/liter, and after the price adjustment was landed, the price may fall back to 7.98~8.02 yuan/liter, and the price of No. 92 gasoline in Shandong, Anhui, Inner Mongolia, Fujian, Jiangsu and other places will generally fall into the "7 figure......
The decline in oil prices this time is mainly due to the low international oil prices, although, previously, due to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the Palestinian-Israeli situation is tense again, international oil prices have risen for a short time!
However, as the market's attention is once again focused on the Federal Reserve, due to the difficulty of controlling inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve has the risk of raising interest rates, although the downside risk of the economy is also higher, however, under the pressure of controlling inflation, the Fed's interest rate cut this year has become "confusing", which has increased the market's concern about crude oil consumption demand!
At present, the WTI crude oil quotation fell to $78.26 per barrel, and during the week, U.S. oil has fallen by about 6.75%, compared with $86.91 at the beginning of April, U.S. oil has fallen by 9.95%......