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In the middle of May, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are about to be lowered, netizens look forward to the stars, look forward to the moon, and finally usher in a more gas-boosting performance, a new round of oil price adjustment, gasoline and diesel prices or will be sharply reduced! In the soybean meal and egg market, the price of eggs is under pressure, and the price is under pressure to weaken, while the soybean meal market has strong support at the bottom of the stage, and the market will still maintain the situation of easy to rise and fall, the specific analysis is as follows:
Soybean meal market: Recently, by the extreme precipitation in the southern region of Brazil, which has exacerbated the performance of the soybean market in the international market, the domestic meal price has risen with the plate, however, due to the limited impact of the precipitation in southern Brazil on the overall output, and the new USDA report is short, the market has a certain upward pressure, however, due to the low inventory of domestic feed enterprises, although, the soybean meal inventory accumulation inflection point has arrived, supported by the cost and the downstream just need to replenish the warehouse, the soybean meal market will still maintain a volatile situation, Prices may be prone to rise and fall!
According to the analysis of institutional data, at present, in terms of domestic oil mills, the spot price of soybean meal is 3420~3470 yuan/ton, and the price is 20~30 yuan/ton higher than the previous day.
From the perspective of the domestic market, in terms of soybean meal supply, due to the gradual increase in imported soybeans into Hong Kong, the operating rate of oil mills has gradually rebounded, the inventory level of soybean meal will gradually improve, and the supply pattern will gradually loosen.
On the demand side, due to the bearish market in the early stage, the demand for replenishment is cautious, the number of days of raw material inventory of domestic mainstream feed enterprises is only about 6.7 days, and the phenomenon of downstream markets just needing replenishment coexists, which has certain support for the market!
Therefore, under many factors, the soybean meal market still has strong support, and it is expected that the price will still maintain a strong trend of shocks.
Egg market: Recently, domestic egg prices have shown a slight upward trend, previously, the price of eggs in the production and marketing market rose by 3.55 ~ 3.6 yuan / catty! Judging from the market feedback, at present, the price of the production area is 3.61 yuan, the price of the sales area is 3.5 yuan / catty, the price of production and marketing is narrowly differentiated, and the breeding end has a certain price mentality, and the demand for follow-up has deteriorated, and the market bullish confidence has declined!
On the one hand, the consumption support is insufficient, after a short period of market replenishment, the demand is further limited, and the downstream market is dominated by inventory consumption, in particular, the pressure of mildew in egg storage is greater, the enthusiasm of market hoarding is not high, the follow-up of household consumption is poor, food companies are cautious to take goods, and the pressure of consumption constraints has increased sharply;
On the other hand, there is a certain price mentality at the breeding end, but due to the loose egg production capacity, the number of laying hens remains high, and the demand support is insufficient, and the pace of accumulation of all aspects of production and marketing may be accelerated, which will also inhibit the rebound of egg prices!
Personally, I believe that in the short term, due to supply pressure and insufficient demand support, egg prices will still maintain a weak trend of shocks, and egg prices may be easy to fall and difficult to rise!
Refined oil market: Recently, the crude oil market is long and short, bullish and bearish sentiment coexist, the market lacks unilateral trends, and prices are adjusted by many factors!
On the one hand, it is difficult to improve the geopolitical tensions between Palestine and Israel, and the ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel have ended without a hitch, and the market's concerns about geopolitical tensions have increased.
On the other hand, the United States is facing the risk of "stagflation", the Federal Reserve has repeatedly jumped sideways in cutting interest rates, raising interest rates and maintaining the current high interest rates, inflation control is poor, and the pressure of economic depression has increased sharply.
Superimposed, on June 1, a new round of OPEC+ meetings may be held, and the market generally estimates that in the second half of the year, OPEC+ may maintain production cuts, which has certain support for the crude oil market!
Therefore, under many factors, at present, the market sentiment is slightly biased, in particular, the market's concern that the Fed's interest rate cut is difficult to fulfill, international oil prices are under pressure, at present, WTI crude oil quotation fell to 78.19 US dollars / barrel, Brent crude oil fell to 82.77 US dollars / barrel!
In this cycle, international oil prices are down, in the domestic market, as of the 7th working day, the rate of change of crude oil is -4.55%, gasoline and diesel prices are estimated to fall by 230 yuan / ton, and the conversion price of 92/95 gasoline is reduced by 0.17 ~ 0.21 yuan, only 3 working days away from the price adjustment, at 24 o'clock on May 15, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be adjusted on time, and the specific price adjustment range shall prevail according to the official announcement on Wednesday!