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In the middle of May, in the domestic pig market, previously, pig prices showed a "grinding bottom" trend, pig prices rose and fell in a narrow range, although, the post-holiday consumption support is insufficient, but, due to the market bullish sentiment is strong, the breeding end of the slaughter pressure is not large, the market two breeding phenomenon sporadically distributed, the bottom of the pig price support is strong, the price shows a stalemate trend!
However, in the last two days, the market sentiment has improved significantly, and the pig price has shown a "rocket" rising trend, according to data analysis, on May 12, the price of pigs rose by 0.14 yuan, and the price of slaughtering enterprises rose to 15 yuan / kg, the domestic north and south markets, pig prices showed a general upward trend, and the mainstream slaughtering enterprises raised 0.05 ~ 0.35 yuan / kg!
At present, the average price of live pigs in the country is consistent with the level of Hunan, the price of live pigs in various provinces and cities is 13.85 ~ 15.8 yuan / kg, of which, in the Heijiliao area, the price of live pigs is 14.55 ~ 14.9 yuan, the price of Shanxi and Hebei is 15.25 ~ 15.4 yuan, the price of Shaanxi and Gansu is 14.7 ~ 15.25 yuan, the price of Sichuan and Chongqing is stable at 14.85 ~ 14.9 yuan, the price of Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 15.8 yuan, the price of Henan is 15.25 yuan, and the price of Liangguang is 14.8 ~ 15.7 yuan / Kg!
According to the analysis of the institution, the logic supporting the rise in pig prices is as follows:
First, the price of hog contracts has risen sharply, and the front-month contracts have soared, which has intensified the bullishness of market sentiment!
According to the analysis of the institution, at this stage, the pressure on pig slaughter is not large, and the slaughter of large-scale pig enterprises is relatively smooth, and in terms of retail pig farms, social pig farms are affected by the early sow inventory and the pig farm disease at the end of last year, and the supply of standard pigs in many retail pig farms is relatively small, especially in Henan and Shandong and other places, the early production capacity is more passively degraded, and the empty fence of the staged pig farm is highlighted, and the farmers have a certain operation of secondary breeding!
Second, the pig war is coming, and the pressure of pig shortage in slaughtering enterprises has increased sharply!
According to the changes in the sow herd, in July last year, the pace of sow herd to increase significantly, the agency generally estimates that after May, the domestic pig slaughter pattern or will be reversed, especially, after the May Day holiday, the consumption inertia fell, however, the pig price did not go down as promised, the market bullish sentiment heated up, this Friday, the main pig contract quotation in recent months rose sharply, the pig 2407 and the pig 2409 contract rose to about 400 yuan / ton, which further stimulated the bullish confidence of the breeding end, the north and south regions, the second breeding sentiment warmed upIn many places in the north, there is a phenomenon of rushing to buy standard pigs, the circulation of slaughtering enterprises is limited, and some pigs are intercepted by the second breeding, which further increases the difficulty of slaughtering enterprise procurement!
Therefore, under the guidance of emotion, the price of pigs has risen in the near month contract and the support of the second breeding has become stronger, and the pig price has temporarily risen! Judging from the feedback from the grassroots, in some areas of the north, the price of the second breeding pig rose to 8.2 yuan / catty, and the cost price of some two breeding pigs reached about 8.6 yuan / catty!
By the second breeding supplement column pig cost increased significantly, personal prediction, pig prices rise or will be under pressure again, the second breeding confidence or will decline, superimposed, consumer demand in the off-season, the domestic standard fertilizer inversion is further obvious, breeding end of the pig subscription enthusiasm or will be improved, slaughtering enterprise procurement difficulty or a certain weakening!
Personally, I expect that in the next 1~2 days, pig prices or will continue to rise, however, in the northern region, the rise in pig prices or will weaken, in the southwest, pig prices or have a situation of following the rise, after a short period of pig prices, the market may once again enter the stage of narrow adjustment of the rise and fall, into the end of the month, guided by emotions, pig prices are still expected to rise further!