This week, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' Early Warning Expert Committee released a new monthly supply and demand report, which adjusts this year's corn production, and it is expected that with the support of the policy, the corn planting area will reach 44,886 thousand hectares this year, and the total output is expected to be 297 million tons. ——It means that this year's corn output on the mainland will reach a new high.
Corn in the Northeast has just been planted, and it is already expected to be a bumper year, is it a bit too early?
Is it you or me, or who? Can you know what kind of weather it will be this summer and what kind of weather will it be like in autumn? It's a bit of a "no silver three hundred taels here"!
Hello friends, today is May 12, 2024, and the entire Northeast is watching the performance of "Jinzhou Port", especially "Big Brother", which is now purchasing 14.5 moisture, and the price of more than 720 bulk density is 2390 yuan, note: with tickets. At the same time, it refused to accept grain from North China, Heilongjiang and Jilin.
Obviously, the port wants to take advantage of this wave of price increases to sell its own 15 moisture grain, and the production area just stuffs 15 moisture to others, or even 17~18 moisture grain, that is, they are looking for a pit to bury themselves, and take the initiative to stretch their necks to make people difficult.
Now it has come to May, in other words, the peak grain season of farmers in Northeast China has ended, and it is a policy type before the end, and a market type after the end, so the corn market trend has begun to be linked to corn futures.
The price of corn has risen in the past few days, so that traders have lost their way, as if the fruits of victory are ahead, eager to chase with a bare walk, this chase, it is very likely that it is easy to "pull the egg", it is very likely that there is a "pit" in front, although this pit will not let you break bones, but it is easy to make you "blue nose and swollen face".
Because of the "sweaty" heavy rain in the northeast, the problem of spring drought in many areas has been solved, but this rain has also caused the moisture of corn to rise, so the corn in the hands of farmers cannot be sold at the "high price" in the hands of the previous days, and the same is true for the corn in the hands of traders.
Now the corn with 15 moisture in the hand is still in a state of "torment", whether it is its own cost or the funds of the three parties, it is like a "time bomb", which may detonate at any time.
With the coming of summer, corn with 15 moisture is now "hot", so the current market is not sustainable, it is very frequent, vernacular, and back toss.
So, in the face of this round of price increases, do you choose to sell or choose to stay?
It is rumored that the imported corn will be auctioned at the end of May, in fact, this magnitude is a drop in the bucket for the entire domestic corn demand, but for the current extremely "fragile and sensitive" market, the trader's mentality is a "fatal" blow.
This goes back to the same as described in the article yesterday, the auction of imported corn shows that there is still a "gap" in corn, or a tight balance, otherwise imported corn will not be auctioned.
However, due to the rendering of the market and the Internet, as if "imported corn" is like a virus, people will "tremble" or "feel like a great enemy" when they hear it, and then start all kinds of complaints and puzzles.
May I ask? In which year is imported corn not auctioned?
But for the North China market, the price of good corn is still rising, because everyone is aiming at the "only remaining good grain", both in terms of transportation and cost are more advantageous than the Northeast, so the last wave of "picking beauties" like picking good corn is in full swing.
Whether it is fattening sheep or pigs, they are actively entering the market, and their demand for corn is emerging.
Therefore, I arbitrarily believe that whether the price of corn in North China is high or the amount is high, it will give the market an answer in June ~ July, and it will rise by at least 100 yuan.
And this answer is the breeding that Xiaobian has been verbose and verbose before, especially the highest point of pig prices.
However, please note that traders in North China are in different regions, the corresponding grain users are different, the cost of capital is different, and the amount of surplus grain is different, so you can't see that it can rise by 100 yuan, and then you think that it will definitely rise to 100 yuan.
Measure the market on your own terms – tailor-made, right? Some cost 2,400 yuan, some cost 2,300 yuan, and some cost 2,200 yuan.
1. For traders with a cost of less than 2,200 yuan, there is a profit no matter how to sell now, and if the profit meets expectations, the grain will be sold;
2. For traders with a cost of 2,300 yuan, it is now a period of capital protection, and it is possible to wait and see, and it is possible to sell grain;
3. For traders with a cost of 2,400 yuan, no matter how to sell, there is no profit, and it will be very uncomfortable;
4. For traders with more than 2,400 yuan, they can't afford to sell it at all, and when to sell grain is a random, and the devil knows when it will be sold;
Therefore, at present, the corn market in North China has entered a step-like climbing market, although it is still up and down, but the main tone is the upward trend, in other words, corn has officially entered the channel of "willows and flowers".
However, we still have to be restrained and calm, don't think that the corn market will be a phoenix nirvana, because there are still ditches on the road ahead. (Personal opinion, for reference only, does not represent correct, all nonsense)
The latest corn prices in the country on May 12, 2024
Shandong lemon biochemical: 1.23 yuan, up 5%.
Shandong Fuyang Biological: 1.139 yuan, down 3%.
Shandong Zhucheng Xinxu: net grain 1.164 yuan, gross grain 1.165 yuan, up 5%.
Shandong Yishui land: the price of the stack is 1.16 yuan, and the price of the material is 1.15 yuan, up 5%.
Shandong Zhucheng Xingmao: 1.16 yuan, up 5%. The first price increase.
Shandong Zhucheng Xingmao: 1.165 yuan, up 5%. The second price increase. Up 1 point in total.
Shandong Zhucheng Yuanfa: 1.16 yuan, up 5%. The first price increase.
Shandong Zhucheng Yuanfa: 1.165 yuan, up 5%. The second price increase. Up 1 point in total.