In the cold night, the rain is pouring down, the street lights are dim, and the cold wind is whistling. I sat in front of the window, holding a thin newspaper in my hand, which read: "After three years of being demoted by China's diplomacy, Lithuania finally can't hold back anymore, and it seems that it has tasted the bitterness." This news aroused my great interest, and I decided to delve into the situation of this small country.
Lithuania, a small Baltic country with a population of less than 3 million, has been in the international news for the past few years. From the open establishment of a "representative office" with Taiwan in 2021 to the upcoming presidential election, the country's foreign policy seems to be a key factor in dominating its prospects.
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It is puzzling why such a small country would be so persistent in challenging the bottom line of a big country. What are the considerations that make Lithuanian politicians make such seemingly self-destructive decisions?
I decided to delve into the situation of this small country and explore the complexities behind it.
Lithuania's diplomatic dilemma
The root cause of Lithuania's frequent conflicts with China lies in its unique geopolitical situation. As a tiny dependent state, Lithuania has long struggled to speak out independently on the international stage.
The country was born after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990 and gradually achieved independence on the basis of a pro-Western diplomatic course. However, as it enters the 21st century, Lithuania faces serious diplomatic challenges.
On the one hand, as a member of NATO and the European Union, Lithuania is largely subject to the policy orientation of the Western camp. The United States and European countries hope that Lithuania will maintain a confrontational posture with China in order to reflect the interests of the Western camp as a whole.
On the other hand, as a very small country, Lithuania does not have much diplomatic leverage. It can neither compete with China nor find a balance between the United States and Europe and China. This leaves Lithuania with an unusually narrow diplomatic space, which can only find a way to maximize its own interests among its limited options.
And this path is to constantly challenge China's "red line".
It is not difficult for us to understand that for a small country, actively interacting with Taiwan is undoubtedly a very convenient means of obtaining support from the United States and Europe. After all, in the diplomatic game, Lithuania's voice and influence as a small country are extremely limited, and only with the help of the "Taiwan card" can it gain international exposure and speech opportunities to a certain extent.
But the price of doing so is inevitably angering China. In 2021, China announced that it would downgrade its diplomatic relations with Lithuania to the chargé d'affaires level, which undoubtedly became a heavy blow to Lithuania.
We can imagine that for a small country, the deterioration of diplomatic relations with a large country is undoubtedly a great disaster. After all, both economic and trade exchanges will be severely affected, which will directly contribute to the country's economic difficulties.
As mentioned in the report, the downgrade of neutral relations has caused a 70% drop in Lithuania's exports, as well as a heavy blow to its logistics and transportation industry. Lithuania, which had become an important transport hub in Europe by relying on the China-Europe freight train and the Baltic Sea port, has been excluded and suffered a huge blow.
Economic distress inevitably leads to political and social upheaval. The report mentions that a large number of foreign-funded enterprises have withdrawn from Lithuania, which will undoubtedly exacerbate the country's employment pressure and social instability. In the upcoming presidential election, the handling of relations with China and Taiwan has also become a key issue, which undoubtedly reflects the general concern of the Lithuanian people about the economic prospects.
It can be said that Lithuania's diplomatic dilemma is fundamentally rooted in its geopolitical situation. As a small country, it cannot find a balance in the great power game, and can only win the support of the West by constantly challenging China. But this will only lead to a vicious circle that will devastate the economy and destabilize society.
This is undoubtedly the most serious challenge for Lithuania at present.
The motives of Lithuania's policy towards Taiwan
Why, then, for Lithuanian politicians, would they persistently provoke China and create a "representative office" with Taiwan?
The report notes that there are a number of complex motivations at play behind this.
First of all, we need to realize that Lithuania is a typical "dependent state". This means that its political elites often lack sufficient international vision and long-term thinking, focusing only on the interests of the moment.
The report likens Lithuanian politicians to "Yelang monarchs", who only look at the immediate and the eyes of the objects to which they are dependent. For such politicians, the establishment of a "representative office" with Taiwan is undoubtedly a good opportunity to cater to Western masters and obtain certain personal interests.
Moreover, because of the electoral system in Lithuania, these politicians are even more anxious for immediate political interests. After all, in a political environment of "today yes, tomorrow not", it is difficult for them to have the opportunity to take into account the long-term interests of the country. It's better to take the opportunity to make a profit, anyway, if the country is destroyed, immigration is also a way out.
In addition, the report also pointed out another important motive: the co-optation of the Taiwan authorities. As a European country, Lithuania is undoubtedly an extremely important international ally in the eyes of Taiwan. Therefore, the Taiwan authorities have spared no expense to win over Lithuanian politicians and encourage them to confront China.
Although the Taiwan side only invested a meagre 10 million euros in the end, this is already a large "bribe" for a small country. In the reality of relative poverty, Lithuanian politicians naturally do not politely accept such a "gift" and use it to win more support. Looking at the situation of Lithuania, it is not difficult to find that the experience of this small country can be called a typical tragedy of "big country and small country".
As a tiny dependent state, Lithuania's development prospects are heavily influenced by the great power game. Once it chooses to confront a certain power, it will inevitably suffer heavy losses from the other side. And this choice often stems from its narrow political vision and mentality of being anxious for immediate interests.
The Gambia, mentioned in the report, is a vivid example. It is unthinkable that a country with a population of only 1.8 million can claim that it can contain China's military action with 1,000 men. Bush Jr.'s attitude toward him at that time also fully demonstrated the unworthy status of a small country in the eyes of a big country.
Although Lithuania is not as absurd as the Gambia, there is not much difference in their attributes. They are all typical dependent countries, all of which are eager to win the support of the Western camp and try in vain to challenge the bottom line of the great powers. But the result is often that they are reduced to pawns in the great power game, suffering severe economic and political losses.
This predicament also reflects the helpless situation of small countries in the international landscape.
The underlying reasons for the devastation of the Lithuanian economy
It is worth noting that the de-escalation of neutral relations will not only cause economic losses to Lithuania, but also deeper industrial and supply chain shocks.
The report pointed out that Lithuania's status as an important transportation hub in Europe benefited from the China-Europe freight train and the Baltic Sea port. But now it is excluded from the China-Europe freight train, and its logistics and transportation industry has been hit hard, with trade volume falling by 28%.
This has undoubtedly dealt a heavy blow to Lithuania's economic development. As a country with a weak industrial base and a small economy, Lithuania has long relied on the logistics and transportation industry, and the decline of this pillar industry is bound to trigger a wide range of economic ripple effects.
More critically, the deterioration of neutral relations has not only affected Lithuania's exports, but also severed its ties with China's huge market. The report mentions that the goods produced in China are favored by the Lithuanian market and are its irreplaceable rigid demand. But now this important trade channel is blocked, which not only directly hurts Lithuania's economy, but also leads to the fragmentation of the industrial chain.
The impact of this supply chain restructuring will undoubtedly have a profound impact on Lithuania's long-term industrial development. After all, in an era of high globalization, no country's industry can survive independently of the global industrial chain. For a small country, once it loses ties with a big country, it will undoubtedly face a serious crisis of industrial decline and technological decline.
The report also mentioned that although the United States expressed support for Lithuania's anti-China behavior, it only provided a loan in the end, and did not give substantial assistance. And Taiwan's investment is limited to 10 million euros, which is a drop in the bucket.
This undoubtedly highlights Lithuania's diplomatic dilemma. As a small country, it can neither seek an independent balance between the two camps of China and the United States, nor can it obtain sufficient economic support from the United States and Taiwan. In this situation, its economy will become increasingly troubled, and industrial development is also facing huge obstacles.
It can be said that the root cause of the damage to Lithuania's economy lies not only in the deterioration of neutral relations, but also in its position as a small country in global supply chains and trade networks. Once it loses its ties with major powers, its economic foundation will inevitably suffer a heavy blow, and it will be difficult for the industry to gain momentum for sustainable development.
This fate undoubtedly also indicates a bleak future for the Lithuanian state.
The way out for the future
So, what kind of way out is there for Lithuania in the future?
Needless to say, Lithuania must adjust its foreign policy and reshape its relations with China as soon as possible. As the world's largest trading and manufacturing power, China plays a pivotal role in the global industrial and supply chains. If Lithuania is unable to rebuild its ties with China, its economic development will inevitably be constrained for a long time.
Therefore, I believe that the new president of Lithuania should have the courage and wisdom to make the right choice. They must move away from narrow political interests and instead focus on the long-term development of the country. Only by taking the initiative to adjust its policy towards China and repair bilateral relations can Lithuania reintegrate into the global supply chain and gain momentum for sustainable development.
At the same time, Lithuania should also actively seek to find a balance between the two camps of China and the United States. As a small country, it must learn to defend its own interests in the great power game, rather than blindly taking sides. This requires a more comprehensive international perspective and negotiation skills, as well as a more long-term vision for the future.
Of course, Lithuania's own efforts alone are far from enough. I believe that the international community should also give more support and guidance to this small country. In particular, the EU, as an integration organization to which it belongs, should provide targeted policy support to help Lithuania get out of its current economic predicament.
Only on the basis of a stable domestic political situation and healthy industrial development can Lithuania truly seek a place in the great power game. This requires its leaders to have the foresight to put aside their personal interests and plan for the long-term development of the country.
No matter how difficult the road ahead may be, I believe that as long as Lithuania has a correct understanding of its own situation, has the courage to adjust its foreign policy, and has the support of the international community, it will be able to get out of its current predicament and rebuild its position in Europe.
Let's focus on the future of this small country. #被中国外交降级3年后, Lithuania finally couldn't hold it anymore and seemed to have tasted the bitterness