More than two years after the Ukraine crisis, Ambassador Li Hui has conducted two rounds of shuttle diplomacy before. Recently, the risk of nuclear war is getting higher and higher, and at this critical juncture, Ambassador Li Hui will conduct the third shuttle diplomacy.
The topics discussed and the countries visited are significantly different from the previous two times. In the first two major visits, Russia, Ukraine, Poland and the headquarters of the European Union, the topic of discussion was whether there is a possibility of a truce.
Through the first two shuttle diplomacy, we understand that the possibility of a truce between Russia and Ukraine is not high. At present, the demands of Russia and Ukraine are at opposite odds, and Russia demands that the four eastern regions of Ukraine and Crimea be returned to Russia and acquire more territory of Ukraine if possible, and Ukraine cannot agree to this condition of Russia.
Ukraine's demand is to drive the Russian army out of Ukraine's four eastern regions and Crimea and other Ukraine-owned territories, and demand that Russia compensate and punish war criminals, etc., and Russia cannot agree to this condition.
This time, Ambassador Li Hui will visit Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and will communicate with Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, Kazakhstan and other countries before and after the visit. Through analysis, it should be that not only Ambassador Li Hui is engaged in shuttle diplomacy, but also Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, Kazakhstan and other countries are engaged in shuttle diplomacy.
These countries in this shuttle diplomacy are all friendly countries that Russia calls and speak to Russia. These are all neutral countries in the Russia-Ukraine war, and some of them still have economic and trade exchanges with Russia, such as Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, which included the 300 individuals and entities sanctioned by the United States last time. Turkey holds the Black Sea, there is a Turkish Stream pipeline between Russia and Turkey, and the previous Black Sea grain deal passed through Turkey. Dubai in the UAE is the financial center of the Middle East, and Russia is doing some currency exchange business through the UAE.
Therefore, these countries have a great influence on Russia's economy, and Russia must weigh these countries if they refuse.
The wording of this shuttle diplomacy is markedly different from the previous one. This time it is still called a political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, and this is the third time. Political solutions include military as well as diplomatic.
In terms of wording, there is a noticeable difference this time. The main two points can be summarized:
1) Don't spill over the battlefield, that is, don't attack other countries except Russia and Ukraine;
2) Russia and Ukraine should refrain from attacking nuclear power plants and other civilian nuclear facilities, and oppose the use and threat of use of nuclear weapons;
3) Ensure the safety of grain, energy, oil pipelines, power facilities, and submarine cables between Russia and Ukraine.
Personally, I think that this time is already very pragmatic, these are the bottom line of the war, if anyone violates it, it will be spurned by the whole world.