Egg market: Before the holiday, the domestic egg market was under pressure, the downstream demand followed up bleak, and the production capacity of the breeding end remained high, and the egg price showed a weak and stable trend, among them, the production and marketing market, the pre-holiday production area price was 3.34 yuan / catty, and the egg price in the sales area was 3.32 yuan / catty, and the egg price showed a low consolidation situation!
During the holiday, due to the general market stocking sentiment in the early stage, food and supermarkets, wholesale markets are mainly based on rigid procurement, during the festival, the pressure on egg inventory in the production and circulation links is not large, and supported by the festive atmosphere, the downstream market purchase and sales demand is boosted, the eggs are still acceptable, and the inventory is gradually digested!
According to data analysis, in the domestic mainstream production and marketing market, at present, in the Shandong market, the average price of eggs is 6.96 yuan/kg, up 0.22 yuan compared with before the holiday, and the average price of eggs in Hebei market is 6.8 yuan/kg, up 0.15 yuan compared with before the holiday. In the mainstream sales market, the average price of eggs in Beijing was 7.41 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.18 yuan compared with the pre-holiday market. The average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.91 yuan/kg, up 0.11 yuan compared with before the holiday!
At present, egg prices show a narrow and strong trend, mainly by the pre-holiday market stocking, holiday consumer demand boosted, students return to school after the holiday, market replenishment demand increases, egg prices show a slight upward trend!
On the one hand, the continuous precipitation in the south, the high temperature and humid environment, the risk of mildew in egg storage is high, the risk of circulation links increases, and the downstream market lacks obvious enthusiasm for hoarding;
On the other hand, the production capacity of the breeding end is at a high level, the number of laying hens in the stage is higher, the number of new laying hens has increased, and the supply pressure of small eggs is greater!
Therefore, after a short period of market replenishment, due to insufficient consumption support, egg storage pressure is greater, and the supply pattern is loose, it is expected that the price will show a weak trend again!
The refined oil market, recently, the international oil price collapsed and fell, last week, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil showed a downward trend, from the analysis of institutional data, WTI crude oil fell in a single week in 5.74 US dollars, a decrease of 6.85%, Brent crude oil fell in a single week of 6.54 US dollars, a decrease of 7.31%......
According to the analysis of the agency, due to the decline in international oil prices, 2 working days before the end of the current round of pricing cycle after the holiday, the domestic crude oil change rate is -2.98%, and the price of gasoline and diesel is estimated to fall by 140 yuan / ton, equivalent to the price of 92 gasoline per liter fell by 0.11 yuan, according to the volume of 50 liters of private cars, it is estimated that it will cost 5.5 yuan less to fill up a tank of oil!
The specific price adjustment time is determined at 24 o'clock on May 15, 2024, according to the current domestic gasoline and diesel price level, if the oil price drop lands, in Beijing, the price of No. 92 gasoline may drop from 8.19 yuan to about 8.08 yuan/liter, and in Shandong, the price of No. 92 gasoline may drop from 8.15 yuan to about 8.04 yuan/liter......
Personally, I believe that the 10th oil price decline in the year is expected to increase sharply, which is mainly due to the significant decline in international oil prices, in particular, the United States is facing the pressure of "stagflation", the Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate level, and the U.S. economic data is poor, the new non-farm data fell significantly more than expected, which exacerbated the market's concerns about U.S. crude oil consumption, and the U.S. crude oil inventory level increased by 7.9 million barrels last week, further exacerbating the bearish sentiment in the market!
Superimposed, the pressure of international geopolitical tensions has weakened, and the Palestinian-Israeli issue is expected to reach ceasefire negotiations, which also eases the market's concerns about geopolitical tensions and supports the decline in international oil prices!
However, as the Organization of Oil Producing Countries may continue to reduce production to the third quarter, and global energy consumption is about to enter the cyclical peak season, superimposed, the Fed maintains high interest rates to exacerbate the risk of recession, the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have increased, therefore, it is difficult for international oil prices to form a unilateral downward trend, and the author will continue to pay attention to the changes in international oil prices in the future!
1. The adjustment cycle of refined oil is 10 working days;
2. Crude oil fluctuates frequently and widely, and the change range and trend predicted on the 5th working day after the price adjustment are used as a reference for a new round of price adjustment;
3. The price adjustment date of all refined oil numbers in the country is the same, and it will be adjusted at 24 o'clock on the same day;
4. According to the international crude oil price, the National Development and Reform Commission adjusts the price of refined oil;
5. When the price adjustment is less than 50 yuan per ton, the gasoline and diesel will not be adjusted, and the unadjusted amount will be included in the accumulation or offset of the next price adjustment;
6. When the oil price in the international market is higher than 130 US dollars / barrel, the price of gasoline and diesel does not rise or rises less;
7. When the oil price in the international market is lower than 40 US dollars / barrel, the maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel will not be reduced;
8. When the oil price in the international market is 40-130 US dollars, it will rise when it should rise, and it will fall when it should fall.
Attached: No. 92 gasoline prices in all provinces and cities across the country on May 7, 2024 (the level of 70 yuan/ton will be lowered by the end of April, and the oil price will be adjusted at 24 o'clock on the 15th)
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